There was a brief moment when ‘defund the police’ was an interesting idea. Until The People Who Don’t Know When To Stop™️ entered the group chat and said, akshually, we really really want to defund the police nytimes.com/2020/08/10/nyr…
As I said, from my own little experience here in the U.K., there’s a lot of stuff that police are forced to do that they don’t really want to do. ‘Defund the Police’ was an eye catching way to talk about those issues and maybe get consensus around them. But here we are
Anyway, none of what is in that article is new. As I’ve been telling people for years - read Jill Leovy’s Ghettoside. It’s all in there.
This leads me to my final point - always ask yourself; who are the people leading the cause I support? This is about as important as the cause itself. This thing I passionately believe in, who are the loudest voices shaping the public debate around it?
Who, as in, when you take away this cause from them, who are they? Very important question
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Yesterday the Adamawa governor, completely unprovoked, posted a video of him enjoying his holiday abroad (now deleted). I will say Nigeria is probably going through one of its toughest economic crises since the 90s right now
I won’t say I’m an expert on Asian economic development, but increasingly, the thing that stands out to me as a *stark difference* between Asian and African leaders is the amount of pressure leaders are under to deliver. It is, to put it mildly, disturbing
Buhari was a useless president, that is not in doubt. But as someone who lives outside Nigeria, one of the worst things about his presidency has how he made Nigeria completely irrelevant outside of Nigeria. A big country no one cares about
This last election really brought it home to me. Barely any coverage, no one cared at all. Had it not been for Obi who added a dimension of interest, I shudder to think how much worse it would have been.
Consensus was something like - you guys just do your elections, as long as you don’t start fighting and create a refugee crisis, you can do whatever you like. See you again in 4 years.
1. He is not Buhari - Simplistic as this sounds, there is at least 1% economic growth available just because the person in Aso Rock is not Buhari - a congenitally mentally lazy fellow who put in at most 1.5yrs of actual work in his 8yrs in office
With some initial buzz here and there, he can make one or two useful things happen. Subsidy removal is the big and obvious one - painful but should give the govt some breathing room for about 5 mins. He may waste it, of course, but the opportunity will be there
1. Obviously his age and health. He is in reality around 80 and visibly mentally diminished. This body, ravaged by time and self inflicted wounds, is now about to collide with the pressures of the Nigerian presidency. His body will not win.
I expect him to land in hospital for an extended period within 6 - 12 months. This is not wishing him ill. He has essentially been in retirement for 15 years. Now he gets a full time job. We can use travelling as a practical example
Throwback to this goodie from 4 years ago - Tinubu accurately predicting the 2023 presidential election results (1/2)
2/2
As I’m sure you know, my summary of Tinubu in terms of governance is a simple one - he’s just a thief. But I will concede one thing - he’s the most gifted (gifted as it’s not something you can learn) politician of his generation. That is in terms of raw retail politics
Good thread. The guys at @StearsBusiness are my day ones and they do a great job of cutting to the meat of the Nigerian economy here (if you can call it that)
What is particularly depressing is not that Nigeria is about to collapse - “there is a great deal of ruin in a nation”. Problem is that Nigeria can actually continue like this for a very very long time. Non-existent growth, govt unable to do anything other than pay salaries etc
The political consensus is completely incapable of facing these problems. And the only people in Nigeria capable of responding to incentives right now are non-state actors. Best example of this is oil. Normally you’d expect oil production to rise as prices rise. Not in Nigeria