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tyro Profile picture
tyro
@DoubleEph
Co-author - with @folafagbule - of “Formation: The Making of Nigeria from Jihad to Amalgamation” UK https://t.co/9PDlOe9B4X US https://t.co/uKtB8hyPn8
Globalbizdynamics Profile picture Remi ADESEUN Profile picture NG. Profile picture 3 subscribed
Aug 20, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Another day, another one. And trust me, he’s not just ‘changing the straps’ #TheWatchesofSanwo

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Image Yesterday the Adamawa governor, completely unprovoked, posted a video of him enjoying his holiday abroad (now deleted). I will say Nigeria is probably going through one of its toughest economic crises since the 90s right now
May 28, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Buhari was a useless president, that is not in doubt. But as someone who lives outside Nigeria, one of the worst things about his presidency has how he made Nigeria completely irrelevant outside of Nigeria. A big country no one cares about This last election really brought it home to me. Barely any coverage, no one cared at all. Had it not been for Obi who added a dimension of interest, I shudder to think how much worse it would have been.
Mar 1, 2023 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
[
Bola Tinubu - The Optimistic Case 🕊️
] 1. He is not Buhari - Simplistic as this sounds, there is at least 1% economic growth available just because the person in Aso Rock is not Buhari - a congenitally mentally lazy fellow who put in at most 1.5yrs of actual work in his 8yrs in office
Mar 1, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
[
Bola Tinubu - The Pessimistic Case 🦇
] 1. Obviously his age and health. He is in reality around 80 and visibly mentally diminished. This body, ravaged by time and self inflicted wounds, is now about to collide with the pressures of the Nigerian presidency. His body will not win.
Feb 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Throwback to this goodie from 4 years ago - Tinubu accurately predicting the 2023 presidential election results (1/2) 2/2
Jul 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Good thread. The guys at @StearsBusiness are my day ones and they do a great job of cutting to the meat of the Nigerian economy here (if you can call it that) What is particularly depressing is not that Nigeria is about to collapse - “there is a great deal of ruin in a nation”. Problem is that Nigeria can actually continue like this for a very very long time. Non-existent growth, govt unable to do anything other than pay salaries etc
Jul 24, 2022 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
Was going to do another observation on Turkey *looking* richer than its GDP per capita suggests. But on further reflection, $8,500 is pretty rich if you exclude a few rich country ‘outliers’ Growing up in Nigeria, there was a clear and unmistakable distinction between what I call dollar roads and local currency roads. In Turkey, whatever difference between those two types of roads is zero to negligible
Jun 8, 2022 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
I've seen enough. Bola Tinubu has won the APC presidential ticket and he's now at least 51% of the way to becoming Nigeria's next president (alarming).

My thoughts on why/how he won. You don't have to get angry or argue - it's my opinion.

🧵 1. Endorsement Mirage - This is with the benefit of hindsight but if any candidate knew he was never going to be endorsed by Buhari, it was Tinubu. Since the endorsement never came for anyone, we can conclude it was a benefit to Tinubu in the end.
Jun 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
One of the craziest things about Nigerian politics (some might say exciting) is unknowable it is. Getting a full picture is practically impossible even for insiders. You can never piece everything together Just as a practical example - today in APC, say 30% of the horse trading and negotiations will be conducted entirely in Yoruba. Another 40%, say, will be conducted in Hausa language. None of them documented.
Mar 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Been reading everything I can find on Wagner and I had not realised they made a propganda movie set in Central African Republic. Full movie is on YouTube but preview here And this fascinating FT piece on the movie [ft.com/content/11ac95…]
Oct 16, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is incredible. I’ll come back to it once I’ve picked my jaw off the floor premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines… There’s the fairly standard type of corruption - inflated contracts, collecting a bribe to award a contract or awarding contracts to your cronies. Nothing new about all of this and a country can even progress with them
Aug 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Everyone talking about how tech startups in Nigeria should have better government relations in the face of the current regulatory onslaught are really not addressing the issues which make operating in Nigeria a major disadvantage In how many countries will the central bank hire a former attorney general to go after a 2yr old startup that is doing a couple of million dollars in revenues and is probably not yet profitable? Why should a company like that have to worry about govt relations?
Jun 27, 2021 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
I want to rant about football. No, not the beautiful game we all watch on TV. Something else I find increasingly disturbing as my kids get older. I wonder if the way the sport is structured is worsening whatever racial/class divides we have in this country. Someone’s probably done some research on this but I’m too lazy to find it so I’ll just use anecdotes. Both my boys played in tournaments this weekend (loads of them now over the summer). Now we are getting text messages about signing up to some premier league clubs’ academies
Jun 24, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“In 2018 he [Xi Jinping] talked again about the Soviet party’s collapse, noting that, with just 2m members, it had defeated Hitler, but with 20m it had lost power. “Why? Because its ideals and beliefs had evaporated.” economist.com/special-report… This special report on the CCP's centenary is really good. I'll say Xi Jinping is currently the most focused/determined/energetic major world leader. Even after a decade in office, his energy does not appear to be dimming. Some interesting excerpts...
Apr 3, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is very good by @mrianleslie. In particular, the paragraph that teases out the generational differences between the report’s authors and today’s activists ianleslie.substack.com/p/elite-wars I’ll add that the report’s recommendations will be fairly popular with ethnic minorities themselves and if the govt implements some of them seriously, they will make a dent in some of the actual problems that prompted the commission in the first place
Apr 1, 2021 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
My lukewarm take on the government’s race report is that cultural pessimism is probably underrated the discourse around disparate outcomes among ethnic minorities. The disparities highlighted between black Caribbean and black Africans really makes me wonder - I know it’s true now but what happens with my kids? And their kids? Britain is not a racist country (don’t bother trying to convince me otherwise, I’m not interested) but....
Feb 6, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I think this will end like a situation where you ban the sale of alcohol and then armed robbery goes up because the new robbers were previously never sober enough to go out and rob people Unlike out here where crypto is mostly a fascination or a bit of fun for most people, in Nigeria it is a very real and increasingly important part of trade. People who trade with China use it to get around fx scarcity and restrictions
Jan 4, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
When I say Nigeria’s cement policy has been a complete failure, this is exactly what I mean. The Goverment is tweeting this out without irony Cement is an input. You can’t eat or drink it. On its own it’s useless. So as a government, if you decide to have a cement policy, the biggest mistake you can make is to set your success benchmark simply as increasing the amount of cement produced. But this is what Nigeria did
Jan 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Can African countries not commit some funding to secure vaccines? What is more important to spend money? For once the media should stop playing up these sob stories that infantilise African countries. It’s not helpful As far as I’m concerned, I’ve set the target for Nigeria at $150m and not a dollar less. After Nigeria has committed that amount of funding, then I will he happy to hear stories about rich countries not helping. Until then, spare me these stories
Nov 22, 2020 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Here’s something that illustrates a depressing reality about economic policy making in Nigeria - some ideas are so pervasive across the Nigerian elite that no matter who you elect, they just won’t change Aganga’s auto policy is a perfect example of this. A completely nonsensical policy that was doomed to failure the moment it appeared in his head. Yet he went ahead with it with so much energy and conviction
Nov 8, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Short rant on politics and the economy After Biden took the lead in GA, all of my Nigerian timeline was taken over by stories of the role Stacy Abrams played in making that happen particularly with her Fair Fight PAC