The Trump administration is preparing anticorruption sanctions against Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon, as it seeks to weaken the group in the aftermath of the Beirut explosion.
"U.S. officials see an opportunity to drive a wedge b/n Hezbollah & its allies as part of a broader effort to contain the Shiite force backed by Tehran. Hezbollah has been part of Lebanese coalition governments for more than a decade & is the region’s most potent threat to Israel
U.S. officials said that by sanctioning carefully selected people, they aim to shape the new government with two prime goals: ensuring that Hezbollah doesn’t retain its hold on government decisions & compelling Lebanon’s political class to target endemic corruption.
“Gebran Bassil should've been sanctioned years ago,” said Jeffrey Feltman, former U.S. amb. to Lebanon under Pres. Bush, in an email. “No one has done more to enable Hezbollah’s political reach in Lebanon than he has, in giving an Iranian-funded Shia militia Christian cover.”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
As Joel Rayburn explained: US sanctions immiserate average Syrians because the Caesar Act "lowered the bar" for imposing them.
"With sanctions, oftentimes there can be a very high hurdle for the evidence that you have to gather in order to prove legal sufficiency under certain… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
US policy makers had decided by 2013 that they did not want to see the Syrian military destroyed b/c they feared that the opposition was dominated by radical Islamists & the country might fall apart.
The US chose Assad over the alternatives.
Blaming Russia is disingenuous
Read the Deputy Director of the CIA in 2013
"it's going to take the institution of the Syrian military and the institutions of the Syrian security services to defeat al Qaeda when this is done."
“The international sanctions on #Syria must be lifted, and Jordanian-Syrian economic relations must return to the status quo ante,” wrote Musa Al Saket, a member of the Amman Chamber of Commerce.
“The sanctions are unfair to our economy & the Syrian people,” he wrote. “Twelve years since the war broke out, more than 90% of the #Syria population lives below the poverty line, with limited access to food and medicine. This is a major catastrophe,” Saket added:
Russia wants us to seek an agreement #Syria, Kobani told Zaman
“As for the U.S., they need to articulate a policy on Syria. They have no strategy beyond fighting [ISIS] and have failed to formulate a clear policy with regard to the future of the areas under our control.
"The absence of this policy makes it harder for us to negotiate successfully with Damascus,” adding that the US does not oppose talks with Assad’s government.
But Syria’s not ready, “and Russia is not applying enough pressure on them,” adds Kobane.
Shifting energy import patterns enhance China’s clout in the Middle East
China became in 2016 the largest investor in the Arab world with investments worth $29.5 billion, targeted at infrastructure, industrial parks, pipelines, ports, and roads.
Total bilateral trade b/n Saudi Arabia & China grew from $42.4 billion in 2010 to $76 billion in 2019, quickly making China the top trading partner for Saudi Arabia.
In 2020, China replaced the European Union as the GCC’s largest trading partner.
The logic of Turkey and Syria returning to the Adana Agreement of 1998 or something approaching it is overwhelming.
Both Turks and Americans are learning that ruling hunks of Syria and unruly Syrians, is a thankless task that will sink them into ever growing trouble.
1. Idlib & N Aleppo cannot be made into a viable state. Neither can Kurdish led N.E. Syria. 2. ISIS is strengthened by Syria's partition into 3 waring parts. 3. There is no internat'l legitimacy to the N. Syrian statelets, which means that no oil company will undertake repairs.
4. The US gains little by its control of N Syria, save the knowledge that it has yet to forsake the Kurds. Turkey is the more important ally, causing the US to turn a blind eye to Erdogan's excellerating attacks on the SDF/YPG. It is a matter of time before US soldiers are killed