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Joshua Landis Profile picture
Joshua Landis
@joshua_landis
Sandra Mackey Chair Dir., Center of Mid East St. & Farzaneh Center of Iran St. Univ of Ok Fellow at @QuincyInst https://t.co/ps25ighcwj Past Pres of Syria Studies Ass.
4 subscribers
Sep 28 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
5 takeaways from Israel’s killing of Nasrallah

1. This is a turning point for the region and the axis of resistance. Israel has made a stunning show of its power, intelligence capabilities, and of Western technological and military superiority. If anyone had any doubts about Israeli power after Oct 7, those doubts have been dispelled. Iran turns out to be the paper tiger that many said it was.Image 2. The root problem of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians has not been solved, indeed, it will only get worse. There are 7 million Palestinians living in historic Palestine. The 5.5 million living in the occupied territories have no rights, no sovereignty, no hope of self-determination. Netanyahu will come out of his Lebanon gambit a towering hero, who has secured his legacy and life’s work, which is to frustrate the two-state solution, ensure that no Palestinian state emerges in any part of historic Palestine, and that the occupied territories become Israeli territory. It is a great day for the messianic wing of Israel. Israel is likely to lurch to the right, disregard Palestinian hopes, and exacerbate its infractions of international law and norms.Image
Jun 1, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Why would @CAIRNational support sanctioning 17 million more Muslims?

The US #Sanctions are designed to keep #Syria in ruins and to stop reconstruction of the country, and stop foreign investment.

There is no U.S. plan to get rid of Assad or his security state.

This bill… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image To understand what's wrong with this bill you have to put it in the context of our current (failed) policy on #Syria

This two minute explanation by Dana Stroul gives a good summary of the policy



As Sproul says, the Assad-controlled areas of Syria are… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
May 19, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
WSJ claims that “The Arab League’s about-turn, en­gi­neered by Riyadh, co­in-cides with Wash­ing­ton’s wan­ing in­flu­ence in the region. “

Why?

B/c the “U.S. has of­ten pressed for de­moc­ra­tiza­tion.”

But this is wrong. ==> 🧵 wsj.com/articles/syria… US policy makers had decided by 2013 that they did not want to see the Syrian military destroyed b/c they feared that the opposition was dominated by radical Islamists & the country might fall apart.

The US chose Assad over the alternatives.

Blaming Russia is disingenuous
May 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Jordanians want sanctions on Syria lifted

Jordan's exports to Syria increased by 23% during the first 7 months of 2022, but are not close to prewar levels.

Jordanian economists demand that the Caesar Act that disrupted trade be lifted.

ammannet.net/english/jordan… “The international sanctions on #Syria must be lifted, and Jordanian-Syrian economic relations must return to the status quo ante,” wrote Musa Al Saket, a member of the Amman Chamber of Commerce.
Nov 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
US tries to thwart Turkish invasion of northern #Syria again

But with no long-term Syria policy, everyone sees the US commitment to the Kurds as weak and vacillating.

SDF Commander Mazlum Kobane insists that the US must do more: =>🧵

al-monitor.com/originals/2022… via @AlMonitor Russia wants us to seek an agreement #Syria, Kobani told Zaman

“As for the U.S., they need to articulate a policy on Syria. They have no strategy beyond fighting [ISIS] and have failed to formulate a clear policy with regard to the future of the areas under our control. Image
Oct 23, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Shifting energy import patterns enhance China’s clout in the Middle East

China became in 2016 the largest investor in the Arab world with investments worth $29.5 billion, targeted at infrastructure, industrial parks, pipelines, ports, and roads. Total bilateral trade b/n Saudi Arabia & China grew from $42.4 billion in 2010 to $76 billion in 2019, quickly making China the top trading partner for Saudi Arabia.

In 2020, China replaced the European Union as the GCC’s largest trading partner.

agsiw.org/growing-china-…
Aug 22, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The logic of Turkey and Syria returning to the Adana Agreement of 1998 or something approaching it is overwhelming.

Both Turks and Americans are learning that ruling hunks of Syria and unruly Syrians, is a thankless task that will sink them into ever growing trouble. 1. Idlib & N Aleppo cannot be made into a viable state. Neither can Kurdish led N.E. Syria.
2. ISIS is strengthened by Syria's partition into 3 waring parts.
3. There is no internat'l legitimacy to the N. Syrian statelets, which means that no oil company will undertake repairs.
Jul 21, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
I am linking to two videos made by a graduate student in Great Britain, Jalal Imran, as a part of his research on #Syria

Jisr video 1 t.me/WaR2011sl/6 (On Telegram)

This videos covers the violent episode in Jisr al-Shughour area in Syria in early June 2011.

Thread => This early phase of the Syrian conflict was characterized as a period of peaceful and spontaneous protests. The videos contradict this narrative.

The 1st video shows that large-scale violence in Jisr (dozens of Syrian security forces were killed) was the result of
Jul 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Syrian Kurds seek Damascus's support against Turkish military action

The SDF & the Syrian gov forces are negotiating a joint operations command room, a Kurdish leader said.

"Our military coordination with the regime is developing.”

By @AlkanjSultan

al-monitor.com/originals/2022… Syria's Kurds have no where to turn but to Damascus & Russia to halt Turkey's expansion of a buffer zone.

The U.S, the traditional defender of the Kurds, seems to have accepted the Kurdish-Damascus rapprochement as the best outcome.

The US needs better relations with Turkey.
Jun 25, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The connectedness of the Syrian & Lebanese Pounds until 2021

When Syria cut subsidies.

worldbank.org/en/country/syr… The depreciation of the Syrian pound gained momentum with the start of the Lebanese currency crisis in late 2019. Following the onset of Lebanon’s financial crisis, the correlation between the movements and volatilities of the Lebanese Pound and SYP increased.
Jun 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The best way to stop the Captagon trade of Syria is to engage #Syria gov economically & diplomatically.

That is how the Lebanese Hashish trade of the 1980s was stopped.

That is how the Turkish heroin trade of 1960s was stopped. 80% of heroin used in US came from Turkey. Syrian gov is happy to sell drugs to KSA b/c it can sell nothing else.

It is humiliating to deal with Assad, but it is the best way to fight the drug trade

Chaos & poverty also lead to illicit drug trade.

Lifting sanctions & negotiating w Damas is perhaps the best way forward
Apr 23, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
'Al Qaeda Is on our Side': How Obama-Biden team knowingly empowered terrorists in Syria.

This article by @aaronjmate is a tour de force.

Thread =>

mate.substack.com/p/al-qaeda-is-… 1/9 The only element missing in @aaronjmate 's excellent article on how the US partnered with al-Qaida in Syria is the CIA's strategy

Two interviews explain CIA strategy. It was to force Assad's exit without destroying the Syrian military.
cbsnews.com/news/the-brief…
Nov 8, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Police in Addis Ababa have begun going door to door, searching for Tigrayans who may be sympathetic to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The TPLF dominated the country’s politics for 30 years before Abiy took power, & are resented by non-Tigrayans.

washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/… the U.N. predicts hundreds of thousands of refugees may try to enter Djibouti, Kenya and Somaliland, an autonomous region of Somalia.

Addis Ababa, home to around 5 million people.
Oct 31, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Hunted by the Taliban and lacking income, members of Afghanistan’s disbanded security forces are enlisting in ISIS, the only resistance movement fighting the new rulers - not unlike Iraq’s disbanded security forces when the US put their enemies in charge. wsj.com/articles/left-… The number of defectors joining the terrorist group is relatively small, but growing, according to people who know these men, to former Afghan security officials & to the Taliban. Importantly, these new recruits bring to ISIS critical expertise in intelligence-gathering & warfare
Oct 30, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Afghanistan is on the brink of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, the un said on October 25th, exceeding even the misery in Syria and Yemen.

A new report from un agencies estimates that some 23m of the country’s 38m people will not have enough food. economist.com/asia/2021/10/3… The un estimates that half of Afghanistan was living on less than $1.90 a day when Kabul fell. By the middle of 2022, that may rise to 97%. “We’ve not seen this level of near universal poverty in any country in recent history,” said Kanni Wignaraja of the un
Jun 8, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
HUNGER by @AbuJamajem

A record 12.4 mil. Syrians are now “food insecure.”

That's 4.5 million more people than before the Lebanon bankruptcy. Syrians depended on Lebanon's banking system.

Hunger is a regional phenomenon, not just Syrian.

Fixing it requires a regional response Hunger in Syria seems to be primarily a result of “access” problems—the Syrian public’s destroyed purchasing power, & its immiseration generally.

Yet Syria also has “availability” problems with key imported goods, including wheat & fuel, that reverberated through the economy.
Jun 2, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The Jihadist, al-Jolani, on PBS TV

Martin Smith does a fine job of outlining America's dilemma in Idlib

A top US policy maker calls al-Jolani the "least bad option" for Idlib.

Oddly, CIA Chief Brennan said the same thing about Assad.

See thread =>

disq.us/t/3xdadyn in March 2015, months before the Russians stepped in to defend Assad against al-Jolani & Caliph Baghdadi, Brennan explained that the US did not want to see a collapse of the Syrian regime as it could open the way to Islamist extremists taking power.

timesofisrael.com/cia-us-does-no…
May 30, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Turkey's mob boss Peker: Turkey diverted aid and Military Weapons originally meant for Syria's Turkmen to 'Nusra' and allied extremists militias.

By @sfrantzman

jpost.com/middle-east/mo… Peker confirms that Albayrak managed the illegal oil trade with the terrorist group Al-Nusra. This was already known from Russian sources and should finally be accepted by Western analysts.
May 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The Syrian Elections are not about popular sovereignty. Everyone knows the outcome.

They are about Assad declaring victory in the war - his wish that the revolution be seen to be over.

His unstated opponent is the Syrian opp., who argue that the revolution can still succeed. Image These videos of supporters, like his main election slogan - "Hope is in Work" - are meant to convince people to put their heads down and go back to work - to accept the reality: the uprising is over & Assad remains.

The opposition states the opposite.

Apr 23, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
A Saudi-Syr-Dutch firm has partnered with a French firm to build in Syria.

This is much needed to alleviate Syria's crisis. Building on two major electric plants in Syria has come to a stand-still because of US's latest sanctions.

Will US Treasury stop this effort? Here is the news on how sanctions are keeping Syrians in the dark - many with only 1 or 2 hours of electricity a day.

If one believes that sanctions will force Assad to step aside, the suffering & privation caused by sanctions may be worth it.
Apr 13, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
How US Sanctions Halt Electric Power Production in Syria

Syria's electric power output is running at less than 30% of the capacity of its plants. Why?

1. Gas and oil wells are controlled by the SDF which is backed by US troops.

Thread => 2. The lack of spare parts for the maintenance of the existing power plants. This is due to US-backed sanctions. The electric power is rationed to homes and factories and provides power at a rate of one hour on and four hours off.