Thread by @amlivemon

November 2020 Election Update

Key Issues to note:

Corn/Ethanol Politics
Swap line cutbacks, market contraction mid September?
Mail-in and Early voting begin in September(PA & MI)
Stimulus 2.0 fight going into mid September
Haley to the Trump poll rescue?
Census fight?

The looming August-September stimulus package will be negotiated between Pelosi and McConnell to place both political parties in their election narrative positions as September voting begins. House Dems want to extend the $600 a week unemployment benefit as the GOP is looking to

cut it to $200-$400 as it pushes for businesses reopening and a surge in rehiring laid off workers. Primary issues however, will be small business lending program extension and agriculture political issues yet unresolved.

To pass a sweeping stimulus package of $2-2.5 trillion,

Congress needs justification for such an expenditure. A market contraction would be welcomed as it would pressure everyone to settle issues quickly and act on the bill. Swap lines and repo have been cut back, unemployment has steadily risen, V-shaped recovery has been removed as

a possibility near term, all issues that the markets have yet to deal with and could give the Fed, Treasury and Congress the needed scapegoat to sign off on another multi-trillion dollar package without facing the ire of voters.

I expect both Michigan and Pennsylvania to be tough uphill battles for Trump this time around, but Florida and Ohio are out of Biden’s grasp as the GOP has gained more voters than the Democrats since 2016 in both states. This leaves Arizona, North Carolina and perhaps Wisconsin

as ground zero for November. All three states I estimate Trump has a slight edge in of about 1-2pts when you consider stealth Trump support and Biden weak candidacy.

Trump will need to focus on immigration, re-opening businesses, and painting Biden as a market killer. Biden

will need to paint Trump as a healthcare liability and protest instigator creating division across America and the world. The Europeans and Chinese are doing their part to undermine Trump with travel restrictions on Americans and China cutting back investments in US companies.

Both however, are in economic trouble barely treading water and betting on a Trump loss would severely backfire if he were to win in November.

For November, I still see a Trump victory by the slightest of margins and the GOP losing 2 Senate seats but gaining 10 House seats.