Here are your questions answered:

What are your projections for Africa as we and France are getting edged out and losing influence? Medium to long term

I’m very bullish on very small portions of Africa, namely Namibia and Morocco. They have pushed for modernization of business and legal frameworks to give investors confidence. Namibia has a deep water port and key transport hub in the future while Morocco’s success speaks for itself.

The rest of Africa remains in a spiral of corruption where many global players can come in and manipulate govts for trade deals(not only China and Russia, but France and Italy)

-Will a Hamas/Israel deal get done by the end of next week?
Absolutely not with the Sabre rattling by Iran over current events.

-Art laffer surprisingly saying the weaponization of the dollar is causing counties to trade exclusively outside the system. And how it can lead to worse things later. Didn't go full brics but says it is a sign.

Weaponizing the dollar is nothing new. The levels to which Biden/Yellen admin have taken it to are concerning and likely shaved off 20 years from the US reserve currency status. None of us alive will see that day but damage has been done.

-Any sizeable chance of losing side not recognizing the election outcome in the US?

After Jan 6, its highly doubtful we have a repeat of one side not recognizing the winner. Will there be fanatic holdouts on either side? Surely, but nothing to be worried about. -Potential fissures in the Russia/Iran relationship that could be exploited.

Always market share of global fuel supply. Russia and Iran are competitors in this market and Russia tends to stir up trouble globally to keep their share of oil to the markets(Venezuela, Libya, Iran…) Can this be exploited? Yes, but to great risk of a real problem in the Persian gulf.

-Smartmatic and electronic voting machines in foreign elections

France should be a model for elections. Fast, accurate and paper ballots backed up. Electronic machines however will be key to manipulation of elections in many nations at Big Tech have a monopoly on data globally.

Ukraine / Currents situation of US in Iraq & Syria
Ukraine-Russia conflict is dwindling down and likely will come to a status quo like in Georgia for many decades. The Russian paid a very heavy price militarily and these Ukraine offensives wont really do much to displace Moscow but will continue to siphon away resources. This conflict pretty much ended Russia’s threat to NATO for many decades. This wont be popular comment.

-Do you have a good line on South America?

South America’s movement to the Left has essentially put its economy and democracies back 10 steps. Venezuela there is little hope for regime change unless the US forces it, and i have been a big proponent of sending the US military in, but there is simply no appetite to send troops into conflict currently in DC and the State Dept is riddled with Leftist cancer even as their installed leaders in South America stab them in the back. Argentina is on a good path but their economy is so damaged that it will take decades to resolve. Colombia seems lost but there are may moderates there that will likely put the country back into the Right wing hands.

-Is NATO/US attempting to goad Russia into using tactical nuke first?
Seems that way, but we are taking stupid rhetoric from Gen Z staff in the the WH and left oriented State Dept words that have next to no meaning. Russia knows a tactical nuke would drastically change the cards they hold and likely increase tensions with Europe. I do not see a nuke happening because I do not see Russia collapsing nor facing a threat of invasion from NATO. Now if China did? Different story.

-Why there is not a feminist battalion fighting to defend women in gaza instead of letting Hamas men do the defending?

Women have roles in the Middle East and fighting is not really one of them.

-Prospects of Albanian island real estate.

You are late. There are only few islands and the biggest prize, Sazan Island, was just given basically to Trump family for development. This I find very odd since Edi Rama is very close to Soros.

-The Fourth Turning - real or hype?

Hype. Nothing more than cyclical problems large powerful societies go through when behind the scenes powers try to take control.

-Will they ever release or acknowledge in whole or part… the NHI program?

No. World isnt ready for such a thing.

-I’d like your take on the power dynamics inside MAGA. Is Vance really the MAGA successor? How much power does Don Jr and the Trump family wield over the GOP? How much power does Vance and his growing political infrastructure have? How much do the PayPal billionaires have?

MAGA to me is a decentralized movement sprearheaded by Trump PR train. It does not hold real grip of power in the GOP. Trump will have power over the GOP if he wins, which I do not think he will. Donors, what few the GOP have, work pretty well with Dem donors and institutions which is why you see Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell types act like they do. Money talks.

The U.S. Treasury plans to sell $105 billion of Treasuries this week (Feb 6th) & could impact the economy and markets. My view is that the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, is dangerously incompetent in her handling of the Treasury's finances and our contacts

https://twitter.com/JerryHendrixII/status/1622242003080577027

within the Fed say Powell wants the data to be inflationary to get Yellen and the White House off his back. Yellen is said to be offsetting the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT) by issuing short-dated bills and Treasury General Account (TGA) and i believe this is causing a

Let me see if I got this right… Biden, @SecBlinken and cohorts of liberal morons push a false Trump-Russia story who the FBI, ran by Comey who is a liar, had agent Charles McGonigal investigating the claims all the while he was taking bribes from Albania, likely Lulzim Basha, who he himself was caught taking $500,000 of Russian funding. So what does our dipshit State Dept do? Well they have our ambassador to Albania @USAmbAlbania & Gabriel Escobar parade Basha around the Balkans & US trying to promote him & bash Sali Berisha because they realized

You have to argue with ChatGTP and point out inconsistencies and reword questions on a topic to finally get them to agree their green polices are stupid. Now i had to correct its responses to climate change and renewable energy lol

The Federal Reserve has certain emergency powers that allow it to conduct business outside of its normal mandate in order to stabilize the financial system and promote economic growth during periods of crisis. These powers are outlined in Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act,

https://twitter.com/galacticbarrier/status/1615674805977595905

which was added during the Great Depression.
Under this section, the Federal Reserve can lend to non-depository institutions, such as companies and municipalities, in "unusual and exigent circumstances." This lending is done through the so-called "discount window," which is the

Ok…

I think most geopolitical guys are full of shit and have next to no access to leaders globally. Papic, Bremmer and Zeihan top my list of worthless.

99% Financial guys on twitter are trying to sell services/newsletters to retail saying whatever stupid shit is trending.

https://twitter.com/jimiuorio/status/1598283978536288257

Crypto losers calling for $1m btc should be put in jail and beaten daily.

Most journalists are paid propaganda agents for liberal elite in wall st.

Most of Congress are worthless grifters.

Too many GOP politicians still bang escorts.

Too many Dems are Chinese stooges. HUAC?

The new Xi inspired Politburo will probably look frightening to the West because of how many Xi people have been installed and the entry of a bunch of aerospace and military backgrounds. Worryingly is that the current US political situation is plumbing new lows and this won't help combat China long term. The biggest concerns for the US is China is simply making huge progress on technology on its own (of course after we handed it all to them and they stole the rest) and the fact they are indespensible to the world in terms of supply chains.

Biden’s Politburo

-Disconnected policies continue
-Progressive factions run the presidency behind the scenes
-Biden’s health seems to be deteriorating and his North Korea style minders are making it worse by limiting media interaction and screening questions. This is only fueling rumors, conspiracies and unease.
-racism narratives ramp up to deflect from economic problems piling up

Stumbling up stairs, bumbling words during mock press conferences run by minders that even North Korea would be envious of, Joe Biden’s administration

Macro narrative on $BGI

Slowing growth in the US is the dominant narrative. It remains to be seen if we will get inflationary 1Q-2Q data before we get to inflation falling. But there is no debate on growth dropping despite a lagging strong Jobs print in January/Dec.

$BGI – a deep value small cap does well in lower growth/lower inflation (worst overall market environment) as has been demonstrated this month. The fact it has an oil and gold angle makes it far more robust than most other value plays. The only things outperforming it are classic

Oil I gave a $75 and $100 target when it was $35.

$TWI was $1.50 when I was pounding the table to buy.

$JILL was another 8 multiple.

Now my top position $BGI is time to run again. Here is the breakdown:

BGI was a great performer last year. But the stock was so beaten down a

https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1372844775506857985

year ago that it is still cheap now. We have it earning $0.79 in calendar 2022 and $1.40 in calendar 2023. So at $4.75/share its trading at a 6 p/e for 2022 and 3.4 p/e for 2023. EBITDA multiples are 5.4x for 2022 and 3.4x in 2023.

Like many formerly distressed equities the

Major funds/banks partner chatter is signaling a market crash. One specifically has obviously one of the best lines into Fed and have a very risky balance sheet so when the Fed waves the caution flag they need to permeate that awareness to at least 100 people in the firm to "slow down or brace”. That makes it one of best indicators in the world. Oil is out of control and headed north of $100 and US equities simply cannot handle that combined with China “reboot”.

The Fed has finally trapped itself in doom loop of inflation and propping up the equity

Biden vax mandates now a threat to national defense
@man_integrated @Halsrethink @mirandadevine

A certain major defense contractor has finally worked through all the legal implications of the executive order mandating the COVID vaccine.

This is what they’ve concluded… if they don’t have 100% compliance by December 8th, they are at a serious risk of losing all current and future federal contracts if they are not, and also expecting for the company to not only be compliant to but force their tier 2 and 3 subcontractors to be compliant as well.

Democratic Party civil war upends Biden’s Build Back Better timetable

Losing political capital has consequences. The inability to pass legislation is the biggest consequence of all in the Beltway.

The moment that the Afghanistan decision was falling apart in real-time under the global media’s scrutiny, that was the end of Joe Biden’s political capital. We noted in April that the Reconciliation bill would have trouble passing and the desperate attempt of Democrats to tie the Budget and Infrastructure bills to it should have waved red flags to

- 3 bills are in question, Infrastructure(passed by Senate), Reconciliation($3.5 trillion package), and Budget
- Reconciliation bill is where the Dems have loaded up social issues(voting, Immigration, etc) to appease their base, which requires 60 votes under the rules. - Progressives in the House number 95 votes and have said they will not vote for infrastructure if this doesn’t pass, tying virtually all 3 together
- Senate Parliamentarian upheld the limits of that reconciliation process so Dems could not use 51 majority rule to pass it where

Being a superpower has its responsibilities but first and foremost it is it’s own long term self interest.

I’m not going to bother reiterating why the US was in Afghanistan but rather focus on why we should have maintained a force there.

The US under previous administrations

https://twitter.com/vola2vola/status/1427727111327031298

had lost significant influence and any real footprint in Central Asia. After being booted out of Uzbekistan, the reality in keeping forces in Afghanistan became much more evident if the Pentagons long term lily pad strategy was to be properly implemented across the region. Since

Taper Tantrum Notes of mine for this:

⁃Taper assumptions are based on the Fed rhetoric and public comments, but that is more about market signals and paying lip service to the bond market for the near term.

@Halsrethink @nglinsman

https://twitter.com/complete_intel/status/1427604580226027552

⁃The likelihood of tapering is low based on multiple political and economic realities. First, we have midterms in 2022 and Yellen nor Powell can ill afford a market crash that close to midterms. Secondly, in the near term, we have a fiscal problem brewing where the GOP is

Range Bound Dollar

Bullish US$ capped at 93-95 DXY
·         US vaccine distribution has surpassed every modernized nation (except the UK)
·         US Fed/Treasury actions would want to limit the perception of failing dollar US Fed/Treasury actions to improve its purchasing power in order to combat commodity inflation 
·         EU banking sector insolvency issues
·         EU manufactures lockdown/political upheaval to lower euro

Haha thanks Britain for this... The hero knight!

Overview:

For Trump: Neutral. Losing in a manner that is extremely questionable in peoples eyes will only make him a martyr. He will use this to grow a new media and political org for the future.

For Dems: Absolute disaster. Trading Trump for the next 2 maybe 3 election cycles will without a doubt cause significant changes within the party. A bluewave never materialized & it cost Senate & House races as I expected.

For GOP: Could not have worked out better. They seemingly push Trump out in a manner that benefited the Congressional makeup.

Stimulus Game of Chicken
/
w Update

Stimulus was on track to pass 2 weeks ago until Trump had contracted COVID. Nancy Pelosi, smelling political advantage, began stalling the bill and citing COVID related concerns to use the issue as an aggregator for the election.

The problem

https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1317137261088079872

that Pelosi had run into is gross miscalculation of her political leverage and the risk associated with stalling stimulus checks and UI on the down tickets of House races. Originally, the Dems were going to lose 8-10 seats but this error in judgment will now likely cause 10-15

US STIMULUS & ELECTION US Stimulus Update
 
Firstly, bear in mind, Presidential EOs are the back stop, especially for  UI and PPP.
 
However, as our very own @Halsrethink states, Pelosi’s rejection of the $1.8 trillion offer is more about the details of its content, and the treatment of possible add-ons, such as aid for airlines. Talks have been ongoing over the weekend, despite the tactical public rhetoric, as evidenced by the following headlines yesterday:
 
*MNUCHIN MAY STILL INCREASE STIMULUS OFFER: KUDLOW
 
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