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Ensemble Capital Profile picture
@IntrinsicInv
Aug 13, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Pretty shocking to see how much some gamers spend *per month* on in-game transactions. Strikes us as a long-term liability for some game producers unless they take more aggressive action to curb excessive spending. Image
Chart source: Wells Fargo
Note these figures are per year. There are indeed extreme cases of hundreds of dollars spent per month.
To their credit, Nintendo (disc: we own shares), Microsoft, and Sony have made progress on this front. arstechnica.com/gaming/2019/08…

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More from @IntrinsicInv

Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Dec 14, 2023
The US economy right now is running at just about the most perfect economic dynamics you could imagine. When people talk about a "Goldilocks Economy" - "not too hot and not too cold" - what we have right now is what they are talking about.

Consider... 🧵
Core PCE inflation, the inflation rate economists view as most accurate and useful to understanding inflation dynamics, has now been running for 6 months at 2.0%. The 3 month and 1 month rate is also ~2%. Right on target.
Job growth has averaged 190k over 6 months, 200k over 3 months and 200k in the most recent month. We need 100k jobs a month to absorb population growth. So we are drawing more people into the workforce. We have been at higher employment-to-population rates in the past.
Read 8 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
May 7, 2023
1/x Some people were surprised to hear Buffett say yesterday that Apple was a better business than anything else Berkshire owns. But it was back in 2017 that he declared Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook “ideal businesses.”
2/x The day after the 2017 meeting he went on CNBC and told @BeckyQuick that he felt investors hadn’t paid attention to what he had said.
3/x “I did mention one thing at the meeting, which I don’t think people appreciated at all… So you have close to 10% of the market value perhaps of the United States in five extremely good businesses that essentially take no capital. Now that was not the case in the past.”
Read 7 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Apr 21, 2023
1/8 Everyone is waiting for a recession. But equity investors need to realize the corporate earnings recession started six months ago. This may help explain the surprising strength of the market. Image
2/8 4Q22 S&P 500 earnings were -5% and 1Q23 is tracking towards -7%. But inflation in those quarters was +7% and +6%. To make these earnings declines comparable to those in the past, we can adjust them for 2% inflation rate.
3/8 Removing the "excess" inflation leads to adjusted earnings declines in 4Q22 of -10% & 1Q23 of -11%. Mild recessions when unemployment increases by less than 3%, are more common than severe recessions. And mild recessions typically have 20%-30% declines, like we got last year. Image
Read 8 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Mar 26, 2022
12/20 Parking lots didn’t present any challenges, but as the rider I was aware that close maneuvering and people walking around made these areas ripe for small accidents.
Read 7 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Mar 26, 2022
1/20 My driver on a recent morning spin around the suburbs of Phoenix was none other than Google’s Waymo self driving taxi service, which has been operating for over a year giving paid rides to the public. This is a thread describing my experience. $GOOGL
2/20 Pick up in a parking lot went smoothly with the car stopping in a safe area and waiting for me to get in.
3/20 Parking lots turned out to be more challenging than you might expect, with people ignoring any rules and wandering in front of the car. But the Waymo handled it all smoothly.
Read 12 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Mar 19, 2022
1/25 You can’t predict the economy, but understanding the macro context is critically important for bottom up stock pickers. Whether you like it or not your company specific outlook includes a ton of implicit macro assumptions.

The current macro situation demands your attention.
2/25 A lot of company level forecasts are just a form of trend analysis. Most macro trends are usually long duration and slow moving, so you just need a sense of whether macro drivers are above/below mid cycle and how soon/much they might mean revert.
3/25 In a typical cycle, while there are early, mid, and late cycle companies (those that thrive best at various points), all companies are operating within a relatively homogeneous economic context.
Read 25 tweets

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