- If top grades A* (2017), A* (2018), A (2019), he gets an A*
- If B, B, B, he gets a B
Ofqual marked ghosts of past students, not this student. Impossible for his own attainment to surpass the average ghost
Any student being first Oxbridge offer from school for 4 years becomes quite unlikely to get the grades for the place (They depend on past students). If school had many historic Oxbridge offers, the top student will always get in.
Ofqual's model suggests it will get a third of grades wrong
A school which made year-on-year improvements 2017, 2018, 2019 will now get worse 2020 than 2019 results
Ofqual and the govt (through inattention?) have designed a 2020 model that appears designed to systematically disadvantage such students
* Hand out roughly right number of grades
* build a 2020 model to v.precisely replicate average 2017-19 attainment gaps between institutions
* Give individuals grades that reflect past exam performance of student "ghosts" & prefer that to any 2020 evidence
Because: past exam results of other people preferred as evidence, outweighing any bespoke assessment of the 2020 candidate
Ofqual has graded the ghosts of past students - and given their grades to 2020 students