Sunder Katwala Profile picture
Director of @britishfuture on identity and integration, immigration and opportunity. Dad of 4. Evertonian. Tweets are personal
Chris🌟 #WokeAndProud #RejoinEU 😷#FBPE 3.5%💙 Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
27 Feb
While "elite cues" matter on issues like vaccines, and mistakes have been made, there is a lot of misinformed nonsense being talked about how vaccine hesitancy works in different countries. (Eg "Single-handedly" is demonstrably simply wrong here).
We have conparative vaccine attitudes before the comments. This was growth in pro-vaccine sentiment from November to January. France is a consistent outlier for hesitancy but was going up from very low base before Macron comment. Germany less of a rise before regulator spoke Image
Why is France a consistent outlier? Academic research suggests French attitudes to vaccines (before Covid) were significantly damaged longterm by the mainstreaming of scepticism during controversy from mishandling of 2009 avian flu vaccine procurement.
Read 10 tweets
26 Feb
I obvs do appreciate the value of sporting metaphor for public comms. But if we are three goals up on Covid now, it surely can't be three-nil. (Maybe its 6-3 or something? After following on, a set or two down, etc etc!!)
Of course, we almost never see it go 3-4 from three-nil.

But, if we were two-down, yet now have bounced back to lead three-two in extra-time, then the need for caution and vigilance to not get pulled back into a replay of lockdown would be a most valid metaphorical warning.
He may, in all fairness, have in mind the QPR v Partisan Belgrade UEFA cup tie of 1984, where Rangers won 6-2 in the first leg before going out on away goals
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
Speaker has made a bad decision on the principle (though the practice can be negotiated). It is a legitimate research topic to find out if employers, landlords discriminate by protected characteristics. It can not be a contempt of parliament to find out if elected MPs do so.
Prime Ministers including David Cameron and Theresa May have been clear about the value of such research (eg CV studies). Opportunity cost should not be onerous. Potential value is high if done well. ESRC or relevant voices should challenge this. EHRC could take a view too.
Indeed, Commons ought to itself have a project (with research partner) to conduct such research on annual basis, eg for intern places & employment opps & maybe correspondence. Knowledge of such research findings can audit & shift culture of how institutions respond to citizens.
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
Papers who are putting "selfish" in the headline are probably making this message less effective. (But it may be a popular message with those who dont need persuading)
I suspect that these are better headlines for this message than the "selfish if you dont" message
These seem less useful to me
Read 6 tweets
24 Feb
New report from @rakibehsan has an ICM poll boost of 558 Black British respondents, and a general poll of 1000 people. As the author notes, 3% Black British population under-surveyed, a minority among the under-surveyed ethnic minority groups

On its headline question - is Black Lives Matter a voice for Black Britons - ICM data says, on balance, Yes. Personal views differ, but by a 4-1 margin (59% positive, 14% negative) Black British respondents saw the 2020 BLM anti-racism protests as + for race relations in the UK Image
The report also shows a plurality of the general population saw the Black Lives Matter protests as net positive (across nations/regions), though much more decisively in London. This mixed but net positive picture is in line with most (but not all) other survey findings. Image
Read 27 tweets
24 Feb
Encouraging. A strong advance in pro-vaccine norms, lifting willingness/closing gaps among more hesitant groups (class, ethnic minority). These look like narrow & weak partisan political effects in UK in contrast to US (dramatic major party gap),Europe (populist party supporters)
A lot (most) hesitancy was weak and has shifted to pro-vaccine sentiment since the Autumn among 3/4 who were unlikely. There are big gains in confidence if focus on the hesitant, not the narrow anti-vaccine core of the last 5-7% or so.
This evidence suggests that approaches to tackling hesitancy should be practical, proactive, local and confident about growing pro-vaccine sentiment & efforts to reach everybody. (Should shift some of the discourse, which risks over-amplifying hesitancy)

Read 6 tweets
21 Feb
Free Speech Union proposes that, as the "simplest solution" the FA should ban any footballers from taking a knee (!) It also argues that fans who boo the gesture should not be sanctioned. But its preferred/proposed free speech solution is a ban on the knee, over a ban on neither.
There is a logic in FSU defending taking a knee (free speech) and defending support of it (speech) and opposition (counter-speech). It is a surprising departure to see its initial proposal being to curtail speech, on grounds it is political.
The FSU - in mooting the proposal to ban taking a knee - are appealing to the rules which were (disproportionately) used by Fifa to ban England & Scotland wearing poppies, until common sense prevailed on not banning the poppy.
Read 18 tweets
20 Feb
Another week, weekly Covid attitudes memo - no 44 (!) - from @jake_puddle and myself
* Public prefer certainty/caution in lockdown exit plan
* Vaccine success is improving perceptions of government
* Health/Economy of equal concern as cases dip

britishfuture.org/wp-content/upl… (PDF)
On balance, people would prefer to be told about emerging lockdown exit plans once they are certain/decided. Image
Keeping social distancing measures until the Autumn (mask-wearing and 2 metre rule) is very broadly supported as a sensible part of moves to relax restrictions. Three-quarters of people would favour this. 1/5 are opposed to this. 1/10 are strongly opposed.
yougov.co.uk/topics/health/… Image
Read 12 tweets
6 Feb
Oh dear, oh dear. A fortnight after January 20th, here comes more US Presidential Election news from the parallel alternate universe of @maajidnawaz
Oh dear, oh dear. Opponents of Trump's empty, unsubstantiated electoral fantasies (that he could put to the US courts) and the fantastical conspiracies of Sidney Powell et al are now compared to the Emperor Palaptine in Star Wars!
Oh dear. Are we really going back to watch out for the Supreme Court intervention in the 2020 Presidential Election?!!
Read 10 tweets
5 Feb
GB-wide YouGov have him at 26-23 (+3) as the 13th most popular Royal. By 28-62 (-34), the GB public would not fund him from the public purse
He got an * for most popular 3 Royals in 2018, but had 1-4% a decade ago. Ipsos-Mori very rarely ask about him.
ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-…
Read 6 tweets
4 Feb
While ethnic minority vaccine hesitancy is an important concern, I was very disappointed by the lack of care/nuance with which the @bbcquestiontime chair seemed suggest there is an anti-vaccine norm among minorities. See attitudes evidence yesterday @NCPoliticsUK
Thread on evidence. Broadcasters have been careful about getting the balance right (the gap is a legit story to report). I do hope there will be an immediate editorial look at whether loose generalisations by @bbcquestiontime chair tonight got that wrong
Issue is much less @bbcquestiontime itself but whether elite 'word of mouth' may see broadcasters amplify anti-vaccine norm (why don't black prople/minorities trust vaccines?) rather than accuracy/nuance
> how can pro-vax norm widen?
> why is there a larger hesitant *minority*?
Read 4 tweets
4 Feb
It is vg to see the USA now return to its long-held commitment to contributing to refugee protection, after a rupture with that tradition under the last administration.

President Biden has both a progressive and a broadly popular set of policies on immigration.
73% of Americans support taking in refugees fleeing war & persecution. 85% of Democrats but 58% of Republicans too despite Trump's unpopular 'populism' on this. (Pew, Sept 2019)
Perhaps counter-intuitively, Trump's highly polarising approach has shifted US attitudes against him overall. Surprisingly it is Republican voters who became more pro-refugee (while Democrats were confirmed in their already much more strongly positive views).
Read 7 tweets
4 Feb
A nuanced piece about the Tebbit test 30 years later. I had a problem with the test, because I passed it, before being put out by how he made it a political question & a test of integration in that way.
Read 4 tweets
2 Feb
This is simply not true of ethnic minorities in Britain. Ours is often a very British story, of how we came to be here. It is why academic studies consistently find ethnic minorities have a mildly higher/stronger sense of British identity than white British.
Maybe mildly more a thing about young people. Anout tone of identity: nation + internationalism. Not about an entirely post-national cosmopolitan identity for most young adults

BSA data shows "somewhat proud" to be British > "very proud" to be British.
The story of Windrush is about 492 people who knew about their claim to be British - yet arriving in a country which did not know it's own history as they did. And 2 generations to secure again that strong claim to being British with which they had begun
Read 10 tweets
24 Jan
Weekly Covid attitudes memo, no 40.
- Growing concern overNHS pressures, confidence rising in vaccine rollout. .
- Self-reported compliance is up, but age-gap reopening
- British public welcomedBiden’s inauguration, mainly due to departure of Trump.
britishfuture.org/wp-content/upl…
By 60% to 35%, the public remain confident about the NHS coping, but by the narrowest margin since back at the start
The 35% who are not confident about the NHS coping is highest (41%) in London. (This is from Ipsos-Mori tracking)
ipsos.com/sites/default/…
Read 15 tweets
24 Jan
The Common Sense group are hoping to put up statues and name roads after Victoria Cross heroes - which sounds to me like that should be very good news for Khudadad Khan Way and Mir Dast Road
The Common Sense group haven't quite made the link yet - but I am sure we can get them there too.
Read 8 tweets
23 Jan
A newspaper report reveals that the Education Secretary is next week expected to rule out schools reopening (for most pupils) after February half-term (as the plan/hope has been to . No new return target date to be set, the Sunday Times reports, briefed by govt sources.
The government source says that "we are in this for the long haul. We are going to *start* giving parents more information so they can *start* managing their expectations". (The use of 'start' misses how this works, I think).
Everybody heard the initial mid-Feb date, because it was the most prominent part of the lockdown announcement, though there was no pledge it would happen. The 'it might not happen' messages have not been as prominent. The 'that definitely isn't happening' will be.
Read 6 tweets
23 Jan
Cheltenham 1 Manchester City 0
(58 minutes)

It may well not still happen - but this would surely be in the all-time top 5 FA Cup shocks if it stayed like this.
I think I would probably have Colchester-Leeds (1971_; Wrexham-Arsenal (1992) and Walsall-Arsenal (1933) right at the top, ahead of Sutton-Coventry and Hereford-Newcastle et al. But welcome your rankings.
An 81st minute equaliser for Manchester City, who are now 1-1 at Cheltenham.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jan
Thomas Binder has a fair claim to the most "full house" conspiracy theorist I have yet to see on this website. (9/11 truther, an anti-semite, Covid denial, Bill Gates Gates vaccination plot). Anybody associating with him has at best failed absolutely to do any due diligence.
I was only recently introduced to his work by Mr Nawaz distributing it. These do not seem atypical examples of a persistent theme of extreme conspiracism
I only first encountered him when Mr Nawaz recommended his fascinating account that Covid is a hoax or a myth that we all fell for (while offering a disclaimer that he lacked any expertise to consider the content he was sharing from this ur-conspiracist)
Read 5 tweets
23 Jan
I am looking forward to reading @RemiAdekoya1 Biracial Britain - out on February 4th - including to find out what I said to him when we met up in person, back in the pre-Covid world when such things were possible!
Book details via @RemiAdekoya1 who I recommend following
"Mixed race? What's all this mixed race nonsense? If you're not white, you're black". Reliable sources inform me that this exchange features early in the book. (This was with the late Darcus Howe, one of the giants of his generation. RIP).
Read 4 tweets