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Brian Winter Profile picture
@BrazilBrian
Aug 14, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
New rise in Bolsonaro popularity coincides with big increase in social programs; new, pork-fueled alliance w/ Centrão legislators; imminent abandonment of fiscal goals & privatization agenda;& public indifference to scandals

That’s riiiiight. It’s the old PT playbook. It works! Image
For a deeper dive on why Bolsonaro remains popular, I again submit my @ForeignAffairs piece from this week. It’s long, bring a sandwich!!

trib.al/8GOrYHA
Big jump in sectors traditionally hostile to him, including women, the poorest & Northeast
For more, in English 👇

https://t.co/eFc5sUbDPg

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More from @BrazilBrian

Brian Winter Profile picture
Sep 3
Brazil's economy keeps surprising on the upside -- again today, with news that GDP grew 1.4% in Q2. It might grow a healthy 3% again this year. So why are so many investors still worried? A short 🧵

(Graphic via @folha ) Image
Basically Brazil is taxing and spending at very high levels under Lula. Government spending grew a stunning 15% over inflation over last 12 months, the biggest such increase on record. The overall budget deficit (including debt payment) is 10% of GDP -- unsustainable.
Lula's government knows it needs to close the deficit, but wants to do so mainly by raising more revenue. Yet Brazil already has the highest taxes in all of Latin America, according to the OECD -- 33% of GDP, compared to 21% regional average. Image
Read 5 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Aug 31
For those asking my opinion about the X ban in Brazil -- OK, I think several things, some of them contradictory:
1) The balance between "free speech" and managing misinformation and threats -- and who makes those decisions, governments and/or companies -- is a global debate. No perfect solutions anywhere yet.
2) I believe it's healthy to restrict speech the least possible. I have Brazilian friends, esp on left, who think US 1st amendment is an antiquated relic -- well, I think it's part of what has given us 200+ years of democracy. A feature, not a bug.
Read 8 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Aug 27
Not a popular opinion, but US, Brazil and Colombia are all behaving as if they expect Maduro to stay.

Trying to maintain pressure on him by not recognizing his fraudulent result. But also recognizing sad reality: Maduro controls repressive apparatus & it's been effective (more)
Hopes of a massive popular Venezuelan mobilization against regime seem to have faded due largely to arrests & intimidation. González & MCM in hiding. Fall of dictatorship does not seem imminent, unfortunately.
In that environment, foreign govts with major Venezuela-related interests won't have regime change as 1st priority. US is thinking of immigration & both short-term and long-term control of oil. Brazil & Colombia have the longest borders with Venezuela & act accordingly.
Read 5 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Aug 1
It’s early but it feels like Venezuela’s opposition & its allies abroad are choosing a “Brazilian strategy” rather than an “American strategy” in reacting to Maduro’s stolen election 🧵
The (traditionally) American strategy is big sanctions, diplomatic recognition of true winner (Guaidó or in this case González), immediate focus on mass protests. During Trump years it also involved (absurd, empty) talk of US invasion or vague “all options on table”
The Brazilian strategy, deeply baked into Itamaraty, is dialogue (even when it seems utterly pointless), emphasis on non-intervention and self-determination, continuing to recognize aggressor — playing the long game in hope *conditions on the ground* change (more in a moment)
Read 8 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
May 30
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be an AMLO puppet, if she wins in Mexico on Sunday?

Everybody has their opinion -- but the recent history of presidential "succession" in Latin America actually paints a pretty clear picture 1/x Image
2010, Colombia: Alvaro Uribe helps elect Juan Manuel Santos, who campaigned on continuity of Uribe's hard-line security policies -- and then went in a very different direction, seeking & eventually agreeing peace with the FARC. Uribe was enraged. Image
2017, Ecuador: Rafael Correa helps elect Lenin Moreno, who then overturned many of Correa's leftist policies, governing as a conservative. Correa (now in exile) was enraged. Image
Read 8 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Apr 23
Why is a port at "the end of the world" suddenly gaining interest from both Washington and Beijing? 1/x Image
Punta Arenas, Chile, has seen shipping traffic nearly double in the last 4 years -- as wars choke shipping lanes in the Middle East and Europe, climate change snarls the Panama Canal and technological breakthroughs such as green hydrogen come to the fore. Image
The Strait of Magellan is also a jumping off point for exploration / exploitation of Antarctica, expected to become even more strategic as the Earth warms. US Southern Command chief Laura Richardson visited the area last year. Image
Read 6 tweets

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