Why is a port at "the end of the world" suddenly gaining interest from both Washington and Beijing? 1/x Punta Arenas, Chile, has seen shipping traffic nearly double in the last 4 years -- as wars choke shipping lanes in the Middle East and Europe, climate change snarls the Panama Canal and technological breakthroughs such as green hydrogen come to the fore.

I’m not sure anybody realizes JUST HOW MUCH oil Guyana has. On a per-person basis, it’s more than any country in the world — and it’s not even close. This sudden bonanza could improve lives, or ruin the country as it has Venezuela & others. Which will it be? A short thread. *At least in theory*, Guyana could become as rich as Italy or Japan by the end of this decade, according to the IMF. Before oil was discovered in the 2010s, this former British colony was one of the poorest countries in South America.

That speech was Lula staking his claim to be the true voice of the Global South, a mantle he aspires to share with Modi. A few observations: The speech was very ambitious, more so I thought than 20 years ago when Lula focused on hunger & inequality. Today he also touched on climate, democracy, big tech, war in Ukraine & more -- appealing to conscience of the rich world to do more.

Here finally is the untold story of how Biden administration helped dissuade Bolsonaro & parts of Brazil’s military from overturning the 2022 election. Congrats @mj_stott & team. A few thoughts follow

ft.com/content/075335… The story gets the most critical detail right — the survival of Brazilian democracy in 2021-22 was mostly a tale of Brazilian institutions & individuals. Some of whom showed great personal courage.

This piece accurately reflects how Lula’s foreign policy is being perceived in much of Washington – that Brazil has become a threat to the US. I disagree with the author's analysis of Lula's motivations -- I don't think it's anti-Americanism per se (more)
theglobalamericans.org/2023/06/brazil… ... Rather, I think Lula & allies believe a multipolar world order will be better than the current US-dominated one. That's a valid & rational doctrine for a country like Brazil, even if I personally have doubts (multipolar worlds historically more unstable... )

Last July during Brazil's election, Bolsonaro summoned the diplomatic community to give a completely unfounded presentation alleging the voting system was vulnerable to fraud

This week, as a result, he is likely to lose his eligibility to run in elections until 2030 Brazil's electoral court will consider charges that Bolsonaro abused his power and misappropriated government resources to spread fake news about the election, which he lost to Lula in October. More here:

g1.globo.com/politica/notic…

Biden & Lula meet at White House tomorrow.

There’s one big opportunity & one big risk

The opportunity: Both leaders defeated a wannabe authoritarian, anti-Constitutional threat. They are democrats in world where democracy is under pressure. More meeting about this, the better The risk: Ukraine.

Lula has engaged in both-sides-ism, saying Putin & Zelensky share equal blame. He is also interested in mediating peace, which is 1) unviable at present 2) reminiscent of Lula’s failed effort at Iran deal in 2010

If this dominates mtg they will walk away mad

The new issue of @AmerQuarterly explores how #Uruguay became arguably Latin America’s greatest success story. No, it’s not perfect — but it looks pretty good right now.

I visited in November & came away with 4 main reasons why. A🧵 First, to define “success”

Uruguay is Latin America’s leader in many metrics — highest per capita GDP, lowest poverty rate. Its democracy is strongest in the region & above United States, Britain & Spain, according to EIU. Cleanest energy matrix, best institutions, etc, etc

Really upsetting to see the symbols of Brazilian democracy and law and order being vandalized today. January 8 is Brazil’s January 6. Not even on the calendar were Bolsonaro fanatics capable of much originality.
Two observations
1) Brazilian leaders of Congress are not present So unlike US the lives of Brazilian Congressional leaders are not in danger, nor is the transition of power which has already taken place in Brazil
2) Jan 6 upset enough law abiding, democratic Americans - including yes many Republicans - that it backfired on Trump & accelerated

Huge news out of Peru: Backed against the wall and facing impeachment, Castillo doubles down and tries a Fujimori-style self-coup.

https://twitter.com/mitrataj/status/1600533983154020354

Here's a clip of Castillo's announcement. Note the shaking hand

https://twitter.com/jsudaka/status/1600534673469616129

There it is — Bolsonaro endorses his party’s challenge of the October 30 election he lost to Lula. It won’t succeed, but things could still get rocky in coming weeks as pro-Bolsonaro protests continue & some in his party push for radical next steps (more)

reuters.com/world/americas… In São Paulo this week I stopped by pro-Bolsonaro protests outside military barracks to hear what they were saying. Heard a bunch of fake news & some residual hopes that armed forces would “intervene” to keep Bolsonaro in power (Won’t happen.)

The Brazilian military’s audit of the Oct 30 election found that — hey wait a minute, why is a military auditing an election again??? Ah yes it’s because Brazil’s electoral court saw it as a possible step to pacify or neutralize Bolsonaro’s constant rhetoric this year about the voting system being open to fraud — and figured they had nothing to hide, so let’s let the soldiers in

Bolsonaro finally speaks. He did not explicitly recognize Lula's win, but said he would obey Constitution.

His chief of staff then took podium and said transition to Lula would happen normally.

Overall: About as bland/normal as one could hope from him The speech was not much longer than my tweet

I believe Team Biden deserves credit for balanced handling of Brazil over past 2 years. Avoided falling into war of words with Bolsonaro - which he would have loved - kept president at arm’s length but also continued economic & strategic relationship with Brazil (more) This year, as Bolsonaro attacked voting system in clear echoes of Trump, Biden folks consistently expressed confidence in Brazil’s election — then congratulated Lula right away on election night, which was key. Think history will show US (& others) helped preserve democracy.

Bolsonaro supporters were never going to lose quietly, and there were hundreds of these roadblock protests overnight. Many truckers participating which conjures up memories of 2018 crisis (& Canada more recently). Courts ordering roads to be cleared. President still silent.

https://twitter.com/reportersalles/status/1587303603873751040

Highway patrol, which has been militantly pro-Bolsonaro in recent days (and engaged in attempt at voter suppression on Sunday), seems to be grudgingly breaking up some of the roadblocks/protests overnight following court order

https://twitter.com/prfbrasil/status/1587371449853120512

Where is Bolsonaro? I spoke to some good contacts this morning, and while none of them knew for certain, the general view is: Bolsonaro believes there was fraud**, but also understands "the game is over," & may be genuinely unsure what to do next The Lira statement in particular was devastating to Bolsonaro's chances of contesting result, they said. Timing & content "liquidated him." He also hearing no support from military. Others pleading with him not to endanger broader conservative movement

https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552?s=20&t=2XvhLLwgmfelPMr9Z1TjNA

Calm, magnanimous speech from Lula, recognizing this a different, more conservative Brazil than the one he presided over 20 years ago — starts by thanking God, references “religious freedom,” says “This isn’t my victory or the PT’s… There’s no such thing as two Brazils.” Lula reading all this from a VERY carefully prepared statement, reflecting delicate moment

Portrait of a Brazil on the edge: Prominent pro-Bolsonaro congresswoman takes out gun & pursues a man she says cursed at her and said Lula would win — she follows him, gun drawn, into a store & orders him to lie down on floor.

https://twitter.com/folha/status/1586457099336585216

This Folha piece has link to Zambelli’s Instagram where she says “I was pushed on the floor… they used a Black (“negro”) to come after me. There were several.”

I have questions but will stop my comments here. Grievous scenes ahead of tomorrow’s vote

www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2022/10/…

1) Brazil. Volatile days, I’ve been wrong before, but if you’re interested in my base scenario, offered here humbly, open to other views: 2) Lula by small margin, 2-4 points. Bolsonaro alleges fraud but focuses more on “rigged” — courts, media were against him. Tense days follow but Brazil’s institutions and int’l community line up behind result. Protests break out, there’s violence. Democracy damaged, but holds.

Brazil debate: If you watched without knowing anything about polls, or even knowing Portuguese, you’d guess Bolsonaro was behind in this race. He sounds exasperated, even desperate. Lula calmer, relaxed, looks like frontrunner Content-wise, it’s pretty depressing. I may have nothing further to add.

Reissuing my previous tweet, with some edits:

I'd personally never seen anything like this on social media before -- pro-Bolsonaro politician forced to publish a "response" from Lula campaign on his own Twitter, after Brazil's electoral court ruled he shared fake news

https://twitter.com/nikolas_dm/status/1585799549591130112

The concept of "right of response" is not new in Brazil -- has been around on TV for many years -- but I am unaware of anything quite like it globally, and I do think bringing it to social media is a major step.

pdt.org.br/index.php/leon…