Our testing czar says our testing levels are "sufficient".
That declining testing is not a problem -- because cases are declining.
Seems reasonable, right?
Actually, no.
The data tells us a different, nuanced story.
Thread
There were 13 states in the "red zone" (>25 cases/100K/day).
They were states like AZ, SC, FL, etc.
In those states, testing has fallen 23%!
And % of test positives collectively flat at 13%
Meaning that they continue to miss many cases
Like NY, MI, etc.
They have few cases. You'd expect them to do few tests, right?
Actually, they're testing twice as many people (per capita) as hot zones
And in past 2 weeks, their testing has gone UP 4%
2/4
So what's going on? How do we interpret all this?
3/5
1. More testing does not mean more cases
2. Hot zones in a "diagnostic" mode, testing only sick people.
3. They still have very high % positive. That means that they are still missing a vast majority of their cases
4/5
5. We want to switch the nation to switch to active search mode.
Why? because diagnostic mode won't control the virus. Too much asymptomatic spread
5/6
Our testing czar is a good person but he's missing the point of testing
We don't just want to diagnose the sickest
We want catch asymptomatic and presymptomatic.
Because they spread.
And identifying them lets you control the virus.
And get our lives back.
Fin