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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
@ArmsControlWonk
Aug 14, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Just a little context on these two images. This is a bit of trolling, which is pretty normal for Billingslea who doesn't have much else to do these days. At least he's wearing a mask.
The object is a Mk 41 vertical launch system (VLS) rigged up like the one used for the ground-launched Tomahawk missile test flight to >500 km in August 2019. There is a placard with images of that test just to make sure you get the message.
This is probably Lockheed Martin's plant in Middle River, MD, which makes the Mk 41 VLS. Here's a picture of the ribbon-cutting in 2016.
news.lockheedmartin.com/2016-03-24-Loc… Image
This is not the plant that makes the Tomahawk missile, but rather the plant that makes the thing that launches it. The Mk 41 VLS is primarily used on ships, and can launch a variety of missiles. Here is a fact sheet.
lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lo…
The flags on the wall are Mk 41 VLS customers. The Saudi flag is freaking some people out, but Riyadh bought the VLS in 2014.
defense.gov/Newsroom/Contr…
So, just to be clear, the flags do NOT represent states that will be supplied with intermediate-range cruise missiles nor do they represent states that will host US intermediate-range cruise missiles. These are just countries with Navies that have purchased the Mk 41 VLS.

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More from @ArmsControlWonk

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Jun 23
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that "Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs -- nine." He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider. 2/17
The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them. 3/17 Image
Read 17 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Jun 19
References to "tactical" nuclear weapons in this otherwise great @guardian story by @hugolowell are misleading. The US would drop a strategic B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator with a yield of 300 or 400 kilotons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 21 kt.
theguardian.com/world/2025/jun…The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is buried. Trump is not considering using a tactical nuclear weapon on Fordow and the possibility was not briefed by defense secretary Pete Hegseth and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen Dan Caine in meetings in the White House situation room, two people familiar with the matter said. ... Those in the briefing h...
Here are the nuclear weapons in the US "enduring stockpile" from @ENERGY's stockpile management plant. Note that the B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator is labeled as a "strategic bomb" -- and for good reason.
energy.gov/sites/default/…Image
The yield of the B61-11 is classified, but it is a converted B61-7 bomb. The yield of the -7 and -11 are usually given as more than 300 kilotons. @nukestrat says the B61-11 was increased to 400 kt. Either way, this is a very powerful nuclear weapon. Image
Image
Read 12 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Jun 16
I see @SangerNYT asked why Israel hasn't hit the stockpile of enriched uranium. My understanding is that the hex is stored in the tunnels at Isfahan and Israel hasn't been able to destroy the hard, deeply buried targets. Thread. Image
Isfahan UCF has some tunnels that are are about 100 m under a mountain that Israel has not yet tried to hit. The Iranians were pretty proud of these tunnels, which were constructed around the same time as Fordow by the same dwarves (aka the Passive Defense Organization). Image
Image
This is pretty esoteric knowledge that is only covered in specialists journals like ... the @nytimes. 😉 (Sorry, I just appreciate Bill Broad and want to give him some love.) Image
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Jun 10
This is probably the the new North Korean uranium enrichment facility that @iaeaorg DG @rafaelmgrossi briefed the Board of Governors about. @sam_lair and I have a summary on the blog. Nice shot by our friends at @planet.
armscontrolwonk.com/archive/122048…Image
Here is what @grossi said:
iaea.org/newscenter/sta…The undeclared enrichment facilities at both Kangson and Yongbyon are of serious concern. In addition, the Agency is monitoring the construction of a new building at Yongbyon which has dimensions and features similar to the Kangson enrichment plant.
The dimensions, layout and other features do resemble the Kangson UEP when it was constructed. Here is a 2002 image of the Kangson under construction -- the central enrichment hall is about 93 m long, which is the right length for two 164-centifuge cascades end-to-end. Image
Read 13 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Jun 2
Trump's offer to Iran, as reported by @BarakRavid, is a dollar-store-JCPOA.

The JCPOA -- which Trump abandoned -- had all of these provisions, usually in ways that were stronger or more carefully constructed.

He's trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. A thread. Image
@BarakRavid Here is the original story. The proposal was "described to Axios by two sources with direct knowledge — one of whom provided a point-by-point breakdown." This is a paraphrase, so sometimes its hard to know what they are getting at.
axios.com/2025/06/02/ira…
@BarakRavid Here is the text of the JCPOA. You don't have to take my word for it; you can look it up yourself.
europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/122460…
Read 14 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Dec 12, 2024
A bunch of tankie accounts are reposting this claim that Russia can produce 25 Oreshnik IRBMs a month.

That's probably wrong. 🧵
militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrain…
The claim of 25 missiles a month is falsely attributed to the @DI_Ukraine. What @DI_Ukraine says, according to other news outlets, is 25 IRBMs per YEAR, not per MONTH.
babel.ua/news/113282-ro…
Oreshnik is the first two stages of the Yars missile. Oreshnik production rates should be similar to Yars production rates, which the Russians claim is "about 20 launchers and their supporting systems per year."
web.archive.org/web/2021041112…
Read 7 tweets

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