Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Aug 15, 2020 • 1144 tweets • >60 min read • Read on X
Armenia showed off some of the new UAVs it is developing. 112/
t.me/military_arm/1…
Some of the Armenian UAVs displayed. 113/
t.me/military_arm/1… ImageImageImageImage
Video of the Armenian Drakon (Dragon) loitering munition undergoing tests. The Drakon has a reported max range of 100km and a payload of 10-15 kg. 114/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
115/
116/
Armenia's MFA claims that Armenia has shot down two Azerbaijani helicopters and 3 UAVs. 117/
118/
Armenian MFA statement: "Early this morning, the Azerbaijani side launched missile attacks along the entire line of contact targeting also the peaceful settlements, including the capital Stepanakert." 119/
mfa.am/en/interviews-…
The Azerbaijani MoD confirmed the loss of one helicopter (they say the crew survived), and claimed they destroyed 12 Osa air defense systems, adding that they "decided to launch a counter-offensive operation of our troops along the entire front" 120/
mod.gov.az/en/news/azerba…
Notably, the US Embassy in Azerbaijan released a warning to US citizens earlier this week due to heightened tensions. 121/
122/
123/
124/
125/
The Azerbaijani MoD denies Armenia's claims that they lost 3 tanks, 2 helicopters, and 3 UAVs, but they already confirmed that one of their helicopters was shot down. 126/
mod.gov.az/en/news/minist… ImageImage
Armenia posted a video showing two Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72M1) getting hit by a munition. 127/
Video of Armenian military and Artsakh T-72 tanks and towed artillery in Stepanakert. 128/
t.me/military_arm/4…
Photos reportedly of Azerbaijani armored vehicles on fire. 129/
nkrmil.am/news/view/2907 ImageImage
130/
Armenia released another video showing two armored vehicles on fire. The 1st looks like an engineering vehicle driving past BMP-2 on fire. The 2nd look's like a tank, and it is clear its ammunition was struck, which led to the fire. 131/
The Azerbaijani MoD says its "counter-offensive operation continues successfully" adding that they are striking Armenian command posts, maneuver forces, military equipment, and facilities with artillery and aviation assets. No footage released yet. 132/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-az… Image
It looks like the first vehicle on fire is an IMR-2 engineering vehicle and the second is a T-72 tank with a pair of BMP-3s. 133/ ImageImage
134/
Video from the Armenian MoD showing two more Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72) being struck by munitions, presumably artillery. Poor dispersion by the Azerbaijani force here. 135/
Video of Turkish journalists near the fighting. 136/
137/
A couple of initial points. First, I am skeptical of the claims made from both sides of what they destroyed and how the fighting is going, but it is clear this is a major escalation. In addition, the fighting right now has more of a Russian-Turkish element than normal. 138/
Second, a key lesson from the fighting in July is that information operations are key. So far, Armenia has released a number of videos showing Azerbaijani vehicles being destroyed (adding credibility to their claims), while Azerbaijan has not. 139/
That doesn't mean Baku is lying about all of their claims, but by being slower to release this footage, they are ceding the narrative of how the conflict is going to Armenia. I'm sure Azerbaijan will post UAV footage, but publishing it quickly is important. 140/
141/
Longer video from an Armenian Telegram channel of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani tanks and IFVs. You can see a large number of BMP-2 situated in a line. 142/
t.me/military_arm/4…
What looks like an Azerbaijani BMP-2 on fire. 143/
t.me/military_arm/4… Image
This is not how you want your forces situated with an artillery or aviation threat. 144/ ImageImageImage
145/
146/
147/
Azerbaijan's MoD claimed that it has "liberated" several villages. 148/
TASS reports that the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Lavrov, and the Foreign Minister of Turkey, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, had a phone call today to discuss the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 149/
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…
Photos of damage in Stepanakert from Azerbaijani strikes. 150/
t.me/reartsakh/3456 Image
151/
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 152/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman also denies that Azerbaijan has taken back 6 villages. 153/
The Azerbaijani MoD has begun releasing UAV footage of their strikes on Armenian targets. This footage, which looks quite similar to that of a Turkish TB2 UCAV, shows munitions destroying Armenian vehicles in cover. 154/
They look like Osa air defense systems. Azerbaijan previously claimed that they destroyed 12 Armenian Osa AD systems today. It looks like 3 of them were damaged or destroyed here, possibly by MAM-L munitions. 155/ ImageImageImageImage
Earlier today, there was an unknown aircraft from Turkey flying along the border with Armenia, which later crossed into Armenia. Was this a Turkish TB2 UCAV that flew from Turkey to conduct these strikes or were these operated by Azerbaijan? 156/
There are obviously a ton of very important implications if this was a Turkish TB2 operated by Turkey, which would be a very significant escalation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Armenia is also a CSTO ally of Russia, and the collective security component should apply.157/ Image
As others have noted, Azerbaijan and Turkey announced that Baku would purchase 6 TB2 UCAVs in June, but I haven't seen confirmation that the deal was completed and the TB2 arrived in Azerbaijan. 158/
defensenews.com/unmanned/2020/…
From Armenia's official twitter account. 159/
The Clash Report Telegram channel that published many of the videos of Turkish TB2 UCAV strikes in Syria and Libya (and is clearly close to Turkish authorities) also says these were TB2 UCAV strikes in this video. 160/
t.me/ClashReport/644 Image
161/
162/
163/
Another thing to keep an eye on. 164/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claims that Azerbaijan has been employing its largest caliber MLRS systems, including the Smerch, T-300 Kasirga, and the Belarusian Polonez, which has a max range of 200km. 165/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
During previous flare ups, including July, both sides chose to not use their longest range systems. If this is true, the escalation risks are even greater as is the risk that each side begins to strike military targets or cities deep in Armenian or Azerbaijani territory. 166/
*Azerbaijan's variant of the Polonez has a 300km range. After the fighting in 2016, Russia supplied Iskander-M ballistic missile systems to Armenia, reportedly straight from the Russian military (i.e. not MTCR compliant, though that may have changed). 167/
iz.ru/1036842/anton-…
Even the MTCR-compliant export variant of the Iskander has a range of 280km, which means Armenia could strike targets across most of Azerbaijan from Armenian territory (or Baku if they launch from Nagorno-Karabakh). Armenia also received 4 Su-30SM fighters last December. 168/ ImageImage
In short, both sides have longer-range aircraft and artillery/MLRS systems that can strike each other's capitals, a capability that they effectively lacked before 2016. During the fighting in July, both sides chose to not use these systems, but that seems to have changed. 169/
Azerbaijan released a second video that also appears to be from a TB2 UCAV, showing a strike on another vehicle in cover (look's like an Osa with camouflage netting), and damaged armored vehicles, possibly BMP-2 or 2S1 Gvozdika. 170/
Screenshots from that TB2 UCAV footage. The first shows what looks like an Osa AD system with a tarp/camo netting. The others show an armored column of at least 8 vehicles. The lead vic is smoking and the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) appears to be damaged. 171/ ImageImageImageImage
Azerbaijan claimed that that the vehicles in that armored column were abandoned by Armenian forces as they retreated. Unclear what damaged those vehicles. The TB2 could have been supporting MLRS or artillery in that case. 172/ Image
Video taken from Stepanakert that reportedly shows an Azerbaijani UAV being shot down. 173/
t.me/military_arm/5…
174/
The Armenian MoD released another video showing Azerbaijani BTRs (the front might be a BTR-82A) being struck by a munition, and footage of an Azerbaijani column with a number of damaged or destroyed trucks and a BMP-3 and IMR-3. 175/
BMP-3 attempting to tow another BMP-3 with a burning truck in the foreground, and an IMR-3 vehicle behind a truck and next to some other vehicle with another BMP-3 in the third frame. 176/ ImageImageImage
I guess this Kavkaz 2020 photo op wasn't good enough. 177/ ImageImage
178/
If you can speak Russian, @CentreAST wrote a good book in 2018 about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with background on the military and security issues (including arms imports from Russia), which is free to download.
cast.ru/books/v-ozhida…
Another TB2 UCAV video from Azerbaijan showing air or artillery strikes on Armenian positions. It appears that most if not all of the targets in this video were not struck by the TB2, which is instead providing targeting support. 180/
Another TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be 3 Strela-10 air defense systems in cover being struck, likely from MAM-L TB2 munitions. 181/
Turkey admitted that during fighting in Idlib in Feb-March they employed F-16 fighters to shoot down Syrian aircraft and likely to bomb targets while in Turkish airspace. They also can launch SOM-J JSF stand-off missiles with a 150 + nm range. 182/
I don't know if that claim is true, but it is possible. In particular, Turkey used F-16 with long-range glide bombs or stand-off munitions to strike longer-range air defense systems in Idlib in March while using TB2 to target shorter-range systems. 183/ ImageImage
Another claim by the spokeswoman of the Armenian MoD about Azerbaijani losses. 184/ Image
Video from Nagorno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army. It is quite graphic, so I won't post the entire thing but it starts with wreckage supposedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter that was shot down today. 185/
The video shows 8 bodies from the Azerbaijani military as well as three BMP-2, one of which was a catastrophic kill while the other two appear to be damaged/mobility kills. 186/
vk.com/armenia_milita… ImageImageImageImage
Look's like a TM-62P2 anti-tank mine and a pair of RPG-7. 187/ ImageImage
Video of Armenian reservists being called up and sent to Nagorno-Karabakh. 188/
The Azerbaijani MoD claims they destroyed 22 tanks and armored vehicles, 15 Osa air defense systems, 18 UAVs, 8 artillery pieces, 3 ammo depots, and killed or wounded 550 servicemen. 189/
t.me/ClashReport/654 Image
190/
A bad sign. 191/
192/
193/
194/
Video purportedly from Nagarno-Karabakh of a rocket fired from a 9K58 Smerch MLRS (possibly a 9M55K) that didn’t detonate. 195/
t.me/reartsakh/3540
196/
Azerbaijan released another TB2 video showing strikes, presumably from MAM-L munitions, on three systems in cover. The first and third appear to be Osa (Osa-AK/AKM), but I'm not sure about the second target with a tarp on top (Tor-M2KM?). 197/
1st is an Osa, 2nd I believe is also an Osa, and 3rd @pfc_joker points out appears to be an Osa 9T217 transporter-loader vehicle. 198/ ImageImageImageImage
Another video with TB2 UCAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian T-72 tank. 199/
Nagarno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army published a video of some of the Azerbaijani casualties, presumably from the earlier video with 3 BMP-2. I won't post the video, but It shows at least 9 bodies and some of their identification documents. 200/
ImageImageImageImage
201/
Nagorno-Karabakh officials claimed earlier today that their forces destroyed 33 Azerbaijani tanks, 4 helicopters, 27 UAVs, and 4 armored vehicles. I would take this with some skepticism. 202/ ImageImage
Another photo purportedly from Nagorno-Karabakh of a Smerch MLRS rocket launched by Azerbaijani forces. 203/
t.me/milinfolive/63… Image
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claimed that Azerbaijan used its TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems early this morning. 204/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… ImageImage
An ominous statement from the Azerbaijani MoD. 205/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en… Image
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video purportedly showing several Armenian soldiers (I counted 8) who were killed in the fighting. They claim that the high ground near Talysh was cleared of Armenian/NK forces, who they say suffered heavy casualties. 206/
mod.gov.az/en/news/advant…
Take this with a grain of salt. Semyon Pegov’s WarGonzo Telegram channel is claiming that Turkish SOF is preparing to be sent to Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan’s initial offensive failed to achieve its goals. 207/
t.me/wargonzo/3481 Image
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan claims that "several dozen" enemy bodies are behind Armenian lines after their counterattack. 208/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Another video released by the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be AGS-30 grenade launchers, Podnos 82mm mortars, BM-21 Grad MLRS, and towed artillery pieces firing on Armenian positions. 209/
mod.gov.az/az/news/bolmel…
210/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan said that Azerbaijan employed TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems this morning but said they didn't suffer any losses from its salvo. She also posted this video, but I'm not sure what the context is. 211/
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
Azerbaijani Major General Mayis Barkhudarov: "We will fight to destroy the enemy completely." He also said that there are fierce battles currently going on. 212/
mod.gov.az/en/news/major-… Image
Nagorno-Karabakh acknowledged the loss of another 15 soldiers, bringing its total losses to 31 KIA so far. 213/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that ~200 Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers have been wounded thus far. 214/
ria.ru/20200928/karab…
reuters.com/article/idL8N2…
215/
216/
Two more Armenian T-72 tanks struck by TB2 UCAVs. One of the advantages of TB2 UCAVs with MAM-L munitions compared to artillery and other forms of fire support is that they can easily destroy armor in cover. 217/
The Azerbaijani MoD said that their artillery, in this case, 2S7 Pion 203 mm heavy artillery pieces, engaged Armenian artillery from its 5th Mountain Rifle Regiment. They said Armenian artillery was striking Azerbaijani positions near Aghdara. 218/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
The use of 2S7 Pion, as well as Smerch, TOS-1A, and reportedly Polonez and Kasirga MLRS, which Azerbaijan typically has not employed during fighting with Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh forces is another indication of how different the current fighting is. 219/
Azerbaijan has an advantage in heavy and long-range artillery and MLRS, in addition to UAVs, UCAVs, and loitering munitions. Baku employed its Israeli-made loitering munitions and ATGMs heavily in July, but wasn't able to translate that into battlefield gains. 220/
Despite greater defense spending and high-tech arms imports, Azerbaijan had limited success in the 2016 fighting but didn't take back much if any terrain in July while sustaining casualties. This time Baku is determined to achieve tangible successes to avoid further protests.221/
This makes this iteration of the fighting more dangerous and more likely to escalate. If Baku doesn't achieve tangible successes (i.e. retake territory), it risks more public anger as happened in July, and Armenia is unlikely to agree to a cease fire if it loses territory. 222/
Another difference from July is that Azerbaijani published videos of strikes on targets that weren't of particularly high military value, but not this time. In this video you can see an Armenian D-30 howitzer's truck, T-72, and Osa AD system hit. 223/
mod.gov.az/en/news/severa…
Ural truck with 122mm ammunition for the D-30 howitzer, Osa AD system (probably an Osa-AKM), and T-72 tank. Azerbaijan has been specifically targeting front-line Armenian air defenses with TB2 (e.g. Osa and Strela-10), which is typical in the beginning of a conflict. 224/ ImageImageImageImage
Semyon Pegov and others are claiming that Russian private military contractors including Donbas veterans are ready to go to Nagorno-Karabakh to fight on behalf of Armenia whenever they receive the signal. 225/
t.me/wargonzo/3491 ImageImage
If Armenia struggles to overcome Azerbaijan's greater military hardware and fire support assets, this might be a way for Russia to support Armenia without employing direct military force (which it doesn't want to do). 226/
227/
228/
Armenia released a video showing an ATGM strike on a truck (possibly artillery or MLRS), and artillery strikes near two Azerbaijani tanks and an artillery piece. 229/
Screenshots of the ATGM and artillery strikes. On second thought, it look's as though the last target is also a tank and not an artillery piece. 230/ ImageImageImageImage
231/
232/
Another video released by Armenia that shows strikes on an Azerbaijani armor column with tanks and IFVs, as well as a strike on a building that was presumably being used by Azerbaijani forces. 233/
Screenshots from the video. 234/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenian D-30 122mm howitzer crews in action. 235/
Another video, presumably of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions and vehicles, released by the Artsakh Defence Army. 236/
Alexander Kots claims this is a video of an Azerbaijani Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. Harops were used successfully during the 2016 fighting. 237/
t.me/sashakots/16995
Kots also posted a video of what appears to be a downed aircraft. This was reportedly an An-2 aircraft. 238/
t.me/sashakots/16992
Another video purportedly of an Azerbaijani loitering munition over Martakert. 239/
Pretty obvious this is related to the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 240/
Both Reuters and the Guardian are reporting that Syrians from Idlib are being flown by Turkey (or planning to) to fight for Azerbaijan. There have been a number of reports on social media and elsewhere saying the same thing. 241/
theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
reuters.com/article/armeni…
"Armenia’s ambassador to Moscow said on Monday that Turkey had sent around 4,000 fighters from northern Syria to Azerbaijan and that they were fighting there". Reuters reports that the fighters would get paid $1,500 a month. 242/
reuters.com/article/armeni…
Video reportedly of Armenians in Georgia trying to return to Armenia to fight but being blocked by Georgian border guards. 243/
t.me/reartsakh/3614
Another photo of a Smerch MLRS rocket reportedly launched from Azerbaijani forces. Of course, this could be a photo of one of the same rockets photographed before. 244/
t.me/reartsakh/3589 Image
245/
The Armenian Ambassador to Moscow Vardan Toganyan said, "We believe that should the need arise, we will request Russia [for additional military assistance]," but "As of today, we don’t think that we need additional troops or other forces," 246/
tass.com/world/1205929
Toganyan also said that Armenia will use its Iskander-M ballistic missile systems if Turkey employs F-16 fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh, but said that Armenian air defenses are currently coping with the threat from UAVs. 247/
ria.ru/20200928/iskan…
The Caliber az site posted a video showing what appears to be an Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh observation post with two Ural-4320 trucks that was overrun. The video shows ~10 bodies. 248/
ImageImageImageImage
249/
The Arsakh Defense Army announced that another 26 soldiers were killed today. 250/
t.me/reartsakh/3620 Image
251/
That brings the two-day death total for the Artsakh Defense Army to 84. 252/
interfax.ru/world/729029
Video purportedly of the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV or loitering munition. 253/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
254/
Regarding the presumed downed An-2 aircraft. 255/
256/
Another video from the Armenian MoD of what appear to be artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions, including vehicles on fire. There have been a number of cases of Azerbaijani tanks or armored vehicles catching on fire after their ammunition was hit.257/
The Times is also reporting that Turkey is sending Syrians to Azerbaijan to fight against Armenian forces. 258/
thetimes.co.uk/article/nagorn… Image
259/
It isn't surprising that Armenia would hold back its newest and most sophisticated air defense systems from the front lines, to protect critical defense sites and cities. But in Syria, Tor-M2 was Russia's most effective air defense system against COTS UAVs. 260/
Interestingly, Azerbaijan has mostly published videos from TB2 UCAVs thus far, but many of the videos they released from the July fighting was from Spike NLOS ATGM missiles. 261/
262/
Deleted my previous tweet because there was a duplicate. From the Azerbaijani MoD's videos released thus far, they show 6 Osa (likely Osa-AKM) 9A33-series TELARs and 1 9T217 Transporter/Transloader struck by munitions (presumably, MAM-L from TB2 UCAVs). 263/ Image
Photos of that 1 Osa 9T217 Transporter/Transloader and 3 Strela-10 air defense systems that were also struck in the Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV footage. 264/ ImageImage
Azerbaijan released a photo of artillery fire over the night. Look's like 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery. 265/
What appears to be an Azerbaijani 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery piece firing on Armenian targets. 266/ Image
267/
268/
269/
270/
271/
Azerbaijan released another TB2 UCAV video, presumably taken from last night, of a strike on Armenian tanks. Keep in mind that MAM-L need an almost direct hit for a mobility kill let alone a K-kill. Regardless, Armenian forces need more dispersion. 272/
Video of an Azerbaijani loitering munition, possibly an Israeli-made Harop, striking Armenian soldiers in a trench line. 273/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Video of Azerbaijani artillery and MLRS engaging Armenian targets. 274/
Armenians soldiers engaging Azerbaijani soldiers on a hill top with small arms fire. 275/
Nagorno-Karabakh air defense forces (looks like it is an Osa-AKM) apparently shooting down an Azerbaijani Orbiter-1K loitering munition. 276/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Reportedly the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV, possibly a Hermes-450. 277/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Video of Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS during on Armenian targets. It appears they quickly change positions after launching their salvo (they have a short max range). 278/
t.me/military_arm/5…
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan shared this video saying that Armenian Igla MANPADS shot down 2 helicopters, but the video appears to show the tail of one or two An-2 aircraft (possibly the same one that was shot down earlier). 279/
I'll wait for confirmation that this was from a Turkish F-16. It could have been from an Azerbaijani Air Force MiG-29, but I would note that Turkish F-16s shot down Syrian Air Force Su-24 and L-39 aircraft in March while remaining in Turkish airspace. 280/
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Another video from the Armenian MoD that shows strikes on several Azerbaijani armored vehicles as well as infantry. Again, the pronounced fires are from the vehicles' ammunition storage getting struck by a munition. 281/
Semyon Pegov showing Armenian D-20 152mm howitzers in action. 282/
t.me/wargonzo/3514
Another video of Armenian D-30 howitzers from Semyon Pegov. 283/
t.me/wargonzo/3516
Armenian mortar fire. 284/
t.me/wargonzo/3507
Video from earlier today reportedly of some kind of aircraft, possibly a UAV, getting shot down northeast of Stepanakert. 285/
t.me/wargonzo/3499
A bus in Vardenis was destroyed earlier today. Reportedly, the driver was the only person inside at the time and survived. This is fairly significant as Vardenis is in Armenia proper, and the M-11 is the main highway from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. 286/
facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3… ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan
claimed that air forces (presumably, she's talking about TB2 UCAVs) were employed in the strike on Vardenis. Obviously, this was an attempt to prevent reinforcements from arriving from Armenia. 287/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
The Armenian MoD made a statement that the Turkish F-16 that allegedly downed the Armenian Su-25 took off from the Ganja Airport, and that Azerbaijani Su-25 and TB2 took off from the Dollyar Air Base to strike Vardenis, Mets, Masrik, and Sotk. 288/
mil.am/ru/news/8440 Image
Video posted by Artsrun Hovhannisyan of that damaged bus in Vardenis. As a reminder, Azerbaijan destroyed a bus with Armenian reinforcements during they fighting in 2016 with an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. 289/
facebook.com/arcrun/videos/…
Photos from the air strike on that bus in Vardenis. 290/
facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3… ImageImageImageImage
Video of an Azerbaijani aircraft being struck by a surface-to-air missile. Nagorno-Karabakh forces claim it was a helicopter but it looks more like an An-2 or other aircraft. 291/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Another video posted by Armenian forces that appears to show another Azerbaijani UAV that was shot down. 292/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Nagorno-Karabakh forces released a compilation video of various strikes on Azerbaijani forces, much of which has been published before. 293/
The end of the video shows some kind of aircraft being shot down. 294/
And a better look, from two different directions, of that Azerbaijani IMR-2 that was destroyed during the start of the fighting. Clearly hit by a ground-launched direct fire munition. 295/
Azerbaijan has a significant advantage in quantity and quality of fire support, but the question is whether they are employing fires effectively. Are they just shooting at Armenian targets, or are they using fires to support maneuver? I'm guessing it is mostly the former. 296/
Obviously, Armenian/NK forces have fortified and defensible positions, but Azerbaijan has a variety of UAV/UCAVs, as well as heavy artillery/MLRS, like the 2S7, Smerch, and TOS-1A, and well-equipped ground forces. Employed correctly, they should be able to retake territory. 297/
But a # of the videos have indicated Azerbaijan isn't always employing its forces effectively. In 2016 much of Azerbaijan's successes involved its elite forces, which sustained heavy casualties, but the gap between its elite and conventional forces is likely large. 298/ ImageImage
299/
300/
Because of the gap between its elite and conventional forces, a limiting factor in Azerbaijan's offensive is whether it can limit casualties among its elite units, because its conventional forces will likely struggle to seize well-defended Armenian positions. 301/
302/
I wouldn't put much faith in these numbers. Armenian officials appear to have misidentified downed helicopters as UAVs or AN-2 on a few occasions already. The UAV and helicopter figure is almost certainly highly exaggerated. 303/
304/
305/
Video of a press conference today with the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. He gave the same figures for Azerbaijani losses though the 137 figure is for tanks and other armored vehicles, and he said Azerbaijan suffered 1,900 total WIA and 790 KIA. 306/
He said the attack on the Vardenis region was conducted by Air Force assets, in particular UCAVs, and targeted civilian infrastructure as well as a bus. He reiterated the claim that a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian Su-25 today, killing its pilot. 307/
He also asked people to not call their friends in the military because they can then be targeted by Azerbaijan. 308/
Nagorno-Karabakh BM-21 Grad MLRS. 309/
Between this and attacks on the bus along the M-11 highway, it seems Azerbaijan is focusing air strikes on interdicting reinforcements from Armenia. One problem with TB2 is that the MAM-L is a small munition and not great at making a road impassable. 310/
I wouldn't be surprised if some of Armenia's top air defense assets and maybe its Su-30SM fighters are dedicated to protecting this vital supply line between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. It would also be a possible target for Turkish F-16s if they are indeed taking part. 311/
Pretty intense video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces under fire from Azerbaijani artillery and possibly air strikes. You can also hear the humming of UAVs, possibly loitering munitions. 312/
Nagorno-Karabakh forces employing a 9K111 Fagot ATGM against Azerbaijani forces. 313/
Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers shooting at UAVs, likely loitering munitions, with their small arms. You can hear the UAVs' humming sound throughout the video. 314/
The first video released by Azerbaijan showing loitering munitions in use. In the video you can see 4 Armenian T-72 tanks and one 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer hit from overhead (many of which were in cover). (h/t @Rebel44CZ) 315/
The start of that video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces that presumably shows Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh reinforcements arriving at the front. You can see at least one destroyed tank on the drive up. 316/
Screenshots showing a destroyed Armenian tank and Azerbaijani soldiers from Nagorno-Karabakh forces' fighting positions. 317/ ImageImageImageImage
Turkish PMC/paramilitaries or Syrian private military contractors flying from Libya to Azerbaijan? 318/
Video showing air strikes and air defenses reportedly in Stepanakert. Hard to be sure, but it appears surface-to-air missiles successfully engaged two aerial targets, likely UAVs. 319/
Screenshots of the four Armenian T-72 tanks struck by loitering munitions, likely Israeli-made Harop, from the last video released by Azerbaijan. 320/ ImageImageImageImage
Video released by the Armenian MoD of an aircraft shot down by Armenian forces, presumably from an Igla MANPADS. 321/
Longer clip from that video with the wreckage of that aircraft shot down by Armenian forces. 322/
And here comes that aircraft flying from Libya. 323/
324/
A possible explanation for that flight from Libya to Azerbaijan is that it is a chartered flight carrying the Bangladeshi expatriates who tried to tried to cross into Europe. Obviously, I'll wait to see where it goes from Baku. 325/
dailyasianage.com/news/242740/th…
Video from Alexander Kots from earlier today showing Armenian D-20 152mm howitzers firing on Azerbaijani positions. 326/
t.me/sashakots/17011
327/
328/
An Armenian D-20 152mm howitzer battery firing on Azerbaijani targets today. 329/
Photo: Alexander Kots
vk.com/armenia_milita… Image
Unless I've missed something, there hasn't been much news today about territorial gains today between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia's Artsrun Hovhannisyan said he wouldn't mention the status of which towns or positions they held or didn't. 330/
He said that he they might release updated casualties figures tomorrow, and gave obviously exaggerated figures for Azerbaijan. Baku didn't provide any figures (that I saw), and they haven't been releasing casualties #'s. The Az MoD's website has also been down fairly often. 330/
Strangely, Azerbaijan seems to be conceding the IO side of the fight, by having their government websites inaccessible and releasing limited details. Ultimately, neither side seemed interested in providing the status of the front line and their losses. 331/
332/
333/
Nagorno-Karabakh's defense forces released another video with identification documents and bodies of Azerbaijani servicemen. 334/
ImageImageImageImage
335/
This is wreckage reportedly of two Harop loitering munitions shot down near Stepanakert at 4:30 a.m. this morning. Banak says a third also violated Nagorno-Karabakh's airspace. 336/
banak.info/3058 ImageImageImageImage
Armenian losses according to Baku:
~2,300 WIA and KIA
~130 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed
>200 artillery pieces, MLRS, grenade launchers
~25 air defense systems (including S-300)
6 command post and OPs
5 ammo depots
~50 AT weapons
55 vehicles
337/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/up-to-… Image
Azerbaijan claims the Armenian S-300 air defense system they destroyed was in Shushakend of the Khojaly region. They said Armenian forces were trying to retake lost positions in Madagiz and that fighting continues across the entire front. 338/
mod.gov.az/en/news/up-to-…
339/
Armenia (Ar) and Azerbaijan's (Az) losses according to each other:
Troops: Ar 2.3k WIA/KIA, Az 790 KIA, 1.9k WIA
Armor: Ar 130, Az 137
Artillery/MLRS: Ar ~200
UAVs: Az 72
Air Defense: Ar 25
Helicopters: Az 7
AT systems: Ar 50
340/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/up-to-…
ImageImage
I assume both figures are exaggerated, but the two sides gave similar figures for armor losses (~130) and overall casualties (Armenia allegedly suffering ~2.3k WIA/KIA and Azerbaijan with 1.9k WIA/KIA). I assume Armenia's claim included KIA as part of WIA. 341/
Video of Azerbaijani MLRS systems launching rockets at Armenian positions. 342/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian vehicles. In this case, one Armenian BMP and two BM-21 Grad MLRS were targeted while all three were in cover. Not sure the last BM-21 was a direct hit though. 343/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
Screenshots of the three strikes. The first look's like a BMP-2, and the other two look like BM-21 Grad MLRS. Note, the presumed MAM-L strike on the third target appears to hit the berm and kick up plenty of dirt. Not clear whether it was destroyed. 344/ ImageImageImageImage
Another TB2 UCAV video from the Azerbaijani MoD with presumed MAM-L strikes on a 122mm D-30 and 152mm D-20 howitzer. The D-20 actually look's like it is in pretty decent shape after the strike. 345/
Screenshots of the D-30 and D-20 howitzers after the TB2 UCAV strikes. Not clear to me whether the D-20 was actually knocked out of action. One thing to keep in mind with TB2 strikes with MAM-L munitions is they generally need to be direct hits to destroy armor or artillery. 346/ ImageImageImageImage
Warning graphic video. This shows another TB2 UCAV strike on what look's like an Ural-4320 truck with ~20 Armenian soldiers walking nearby. You can see around a dozen bodies at the end. 347/
New video from Azerbaijan showing TB2 strikes on two Armenian T-72 tanks. The first look's like a direct hit, but the second is a near miss. The second is possibly a mobility kill but likely didn't do too much damage. 348/
Screenshots of the two strikes on Armenian T-72 tanks. 349/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenian forces have faced a threat from loitering munitions before, but TB2 change the equation in that they are harder to hear/see overhead and can strike targets deeper past the front lines. Armenian reinforcements need to expect air attacks starting in Armenia proper. 350/ Image
We're also seeing Azerbaijan going after different targets now. On the first day, the emphasis was on Armenian air defenses, like Osas and Strela-10s, and tanks that were likely near the FLOT. Now they are targeting artillery/MLRS, tanks, as well as groups of infantry. 351/ ImageImageImage
With TB2 operating overhead, apparently without too much difficulty now that many of the front line AD systems are destroyed, reinforcements including tanks and armor will remain priority targets, possibly making it more difficult for Armenia to hold positions under attack. 352/
Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces are continuing to claim that Turkish F-16 fighters are operating over Nagorno-Karabakh. 353/
t.me/reartsakh/3766 Image
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 354/
Another video from September 28 near Qaraxanbəyli with Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers under Azerbaijani artillery fire. 355/
t.me/reartsakh/3774
Full video of those Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh reinforcements arriving at the front on September 28. You can see 9M111 Fagot ATGMs being launched against Azerbaijani targets and soldiers trying to shoot UAVs, likely loitering munitions. 356/
t.me/reartsakh/3774
BBC's Russian Service has a good live feed of developments going on in Nagorno-Karabakh. 357/
bbc.com/russian/live/n…
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan claimed that Armenian forces have destroyed an Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS system. 358/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
The Armenian MoD published photos of the Su-25 aircraft they claim was downed by a Turkish F-16 fighter. 359/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
360/
I'm not gonna post any of them but there are a number of videos published from the Armenian-side of the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers, some stacked on top of each other in the back of a truck or in a field. These kind of videos are being released daily. 361/
Video of what appears to be another Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on Armenian reinforcements. I'm not sure what the full context is, as that site has often not worked during the fighting. The vid cuts off before detonation. 362/
vk.com/milinfolive?z=…
An example of the laziness of the IO from both sides. The Azerbaijani MoD claims this is an Armenian Tochka-U missile. The photos to the right are of Tochkas, which don't look anything like that. Instead, it look's like a Smerch MLRS rocket. 363/
ImageImageImage
364/
Video released by Armenia showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets. Hard to make out exactly what was struck, but it appears a couple of vehicles were destroyed. 365/
366/
367/
368/
New Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV video. It shows a strike on a BM-21 Grad MLRS and other targets that were likely hit by another platform. They say they destroyed 1 Uragan and 3 BM-21 MLRS, 1 Osa AD system, 1 IFV, and 2 D-20 howitzers "over the past hours". 369/
mod.gov.az/en/news/eight-…
370/
New video from Armenia showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani troops and equipment, including a platoon-size formation of troops in the open running for cover. 371/
Video of an Azerbaijani tank or armored vehicle being destroyed. 372/
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing loitering munitions striking various Armenian targets. Note, all 4 of the T-72 tanks and the 2S3 Aktasiya was in a previous video. Additional, BM-21 Grad MLRS, Osa, and other systems were in the video. 373/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Supposedly, these two are decoys of Osa or Strela air defense systems. The chassis certainly is different. 374/ ImageImage
9A33 Osa TELAR, BM-21 Grad MLRS, ammunition for a towed howitzer (interesting that they targeted the ammunition rather than the artillery piece), and Ural truck transporting an anti-aircraft or anti-tank gun (S-60?). 375/ ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claims that Turkey is running all offensive air operations for Azerbaijan from a Turkish E7-T AEW&C aircraft, and is operating a UAV C2 station (presumably for the Turkish-made TB2 UCAVs). 376/ Image
377/
The Azerbaijani MoD's claims about Armenian losses today up to 1730:
-2 Osa-AKM air defense systems (likely TELARs)
-1 Uragan MLRS
-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-4 D-20 152mm howitzers
-16 tanks
-1 IFV
-2 trucks with troops
378/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-… Image
379/
380/
And here are Azerbaijan’s losses according to the Armenian MoD, both in total and today. They claim that Azerbaijani TOS-1A, Uragan, and Smerch MLRS were destroyed today. 381/
t.me/reartsakh/3785 ImageImage
New video from Azerbaijan showing TB2 UCAVs striking 5 Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS. The Azerbaijani MoD said they destroyed 8 Grad MLRS systems this evening. 382/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Azerbaijan continues to focus on Armenia's artillery and MLRS systems after destroying many of the Osa-AKM and Strela-10 air defense systems. At this point, it would be better to give these vehicles better concealment from the air than cover from arty or ground systems. 383/ ImageImageImageImage
It isn't clear how much maneuver occurred today and yesterday, but it seems Azerbaijani TB2 are operating without great resistance right now and will likely continue to knock out Armenian artillery, armor, and OPs unless something changes. 384/
Regardless of how effective Armenian soldiers are, they will struggle to hold onto their defensive positions if they continue to face an effective aerial threat operating with impunity. So the question is, what will Armenia do about it? 385/
Armenia could send its newest air defenses, like the Tor-M2KM and Buk-M1-2, into Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving Armenia proper less well covered. This might work if they received guarantees that Russia would help defend Armenian air space from Turkey or maybe Azerbaijan. 386/
They could ask or demand emergency deliveries of EW or AD systems from Russia to address the new UCAV threat. Or they could escalate, and attempt to destroy the TB2s on the ground or their C2 infrastructure, possibly with Su-30SM or Iskander-M/Tochka-U ballistic missiles. 387/
But the status quo isn't working for Armenia even if it isn't currently losing much terrain, and Azerbaijan and Turkey seem to be happy to continue with the conflict. So Armenia, and possibly Russia, is going to have to make a decision to change the trajectory of the fight. 388/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman released this video that purports to show the flight pattern of Turkish E-7T AEW&C and F-16 aircraft. Not sure if that Su-25 is supposed to be the Armenian aircraft that was shot down or an Azerbaijani Su-25. 389/
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes on an Armenian convoy. Hard to tell whether those are trucks or MLRS. 390/
Another TB2 video that appears to show strikes on 5 BM-21 Grad MLRS and one or maybe 2 Ural-4320 trucks. It appears the previous video shows a resupply for this BM-21 Grad battery. 391/
Screenshots of 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS targeted by TB2 UCAVs. As a reminder, MAM-C/L munitions have fairly small warheads and need to be direct hits, and it is often difficult to tell how damaged these vehicles are after some of these near misses. 392/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots of the 5th BM-21 Grad MLRS from that video, a Ural-4320 truck, and a 3rd target, which is likely another BM-21 or truck. You can see that resupply convoy in the 3rd and 4th screenshots. 393/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots of TB2 strikes on that resupply convoy. 394/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of damage reportedly caused by Azerbaijani air strikes (presumably, MLRS too) on Martakert. 395/
t.me/reartsakh/3818
Video of the air raid siren from tonight in Stepanakert. 396/
t.me/military_arm/7…
Armenia's losses from Sep 27-30 as of 2130 according to the Azerbaijani MoD:
-up to 200 tanks and armored vehicles
-228 artillery, MLRS, mortar pieces
-30 air defense systems
-6 command posts/OPs
-5 ammo dumps
-More than 110 vehicles
-1 S-300 system.
397/
 mod.gov.az/ru/news/spisok… Image
Azerbaijan continued its MLRS fire on Armenian positions during the night. 398/
According to the Guardian, "At least three Syrian opposition fighters have been killed in skirmishes in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh," including one who reportedly left for Azerbaijan on September 20. 399/
theguardian.com/world/2020/sep… ImageImage
Armenia posted photos of an Azerbaijani UAV that was reportedly shot down over night. Look's like an Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition. 400/
vk.com/armenia_milita… ImageImageImage
New TB2 UCAV video from Azerbaijan with strikes on 4 D-30 122mm howitzers and a fifth target from long distance that is hard to ID. 401/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
Note, the Orbiter UAV that flies through the frame after one of the D-30 howitzers was struck. 402/ Image
The four D-30 122mm howitzers, presumably from a single battery. In the fourth screenshot, you can see damage from previous strikes. 403/ ImageImageImageImage
A look at the D-30 howitzer battery's position. These trench lines may need to be camouflaged better against aerial threats. 404/ ImageImageImage
Video from Azerbaijani reporters showing areas taken from Armenian forces. You can see a number of damaged or destroyed Ural-4320 trucks, GAZ-66, and other vehicles. They blur much of it but you can see a possibly damaged Azerbaijani BMP-3. 405/
haqqin.az/news/190677
Screenshots of that Azerbaijani BMP-3. Can't tell if there is any damage but it is in a strange position if it is operational. Also possible that some of the damaged vehicles on the road belonged to Azerbaijan as well. 406/ ImageImageImageImage
407/
Screenshots of the damaged Ural-4320, GAZ-66, and other vehicles. Given that they blur out so much of the video, I wonder if that was to prevent people from ID'ing Azerbaijani positions or if some of the equipment was Azerbaijani and more identifiable. 408/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenia claims that Nagorno-Karabakh forces shot down an Azerbaijani helicopter, which crashed in Iran. 409/
facebook.com/ArmenianUnifie… Image
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that Armenian forces from the Gorus region of Armenia fired rockets at the Jebrail-Fizuli area of Azerbaijan. 410/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-te… Image
Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS fire. 411/
t.me/wargonzo/3535
Here’s the unblurred version of that video from Azerbaijani media showing damaged Ural-4320, GAZ-66, BMP-3, and other vehicles. Not sure why they blurred so much of the other one. 412/
t.me/infantmilitari…
As @COIN_TR1 pointed out, the above video might have been taken while passing through some of the destruction shown in this video posted earlier this week by Armenia showing Azerbaijani Ural-4320, IMR, and BMP-3. 413/ Image
414/
415/
Another Smerch MLRS rocket that reportedly landed a 15 minute drive from Stepanakert. 416/
t.me/reartsakh/3849 Image
Another video released by the Armenian MoD that shows trucks or buses on fire and a strike presumably on an Azerbaijani position. 417/
Armenian officials claimed that they have shot down 3 Azerbaijani aircraft, 2 helicopters, and 6 UAVs today. 418/
t.me/reartsakh/3864 Image
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 419/ Image
Allegedly photos of the vehicle of two AFP journalists who were fired on in Nagorno-Karabakh. 420/
t.me/reartsakh/3866 Image
Another video from Azerbaijani correspondents showing Armenian positions seized by Azerbaijani forces. The video shows at least one destroyed tank and Ural-4320 trucks. 421/
t.me/new_militaryco…
Screenshots of the two tanks and destroyed Ural-4320 truck. It looks as though the destroyed tank was struck from above through its turret. 422/ ImageImageImageImage
The second half of that video showing Azerbaijani forces with captured Armenian trucks and equipment. 423/
424/
Video of what appears to be another Smerch MLRS rocket in Karabakh. 425/
Video of one of the aircraft shot down today, which looks like another An-2. 426/
Video of TB2 UCAVs striking two Armenian Osa air defense 9A33-series TELARs (both were hit yesterday or earlier) and a T-72 tank. 427/
Interestingly, the Clash Report Telegram Channel, which is clearly close to/run by the Turkish MoD, posted this footage first yesterday, which might be a sign that Turkey is controlling or coordinating the work of these TB2 UCAVs in Azerbaijan. 428/
t.me/ClashReport/677
The Azerbaijani MoD’s response to the Armenian MoD’s claims about Azerbaijani aviation losses today. 429/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD… Image
Clash Report popped up in March during Turkey's UCAV offensive in Idlib and published most of the footage of those strikes, which were clearly provided by the Turkish MoD, and from Libya, too. Seems unlikely the Azerbaijani military would give them the footage first. 430/ ImageImageImage
Screenshots of those two Armenian Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELARs and the T-72 tank. Notably, now that Armenia's front-line air defense systems are significantly degraded, Azerbaijan could begin using its Mi-35M attack helicopters and Su-25 attack aircraft for CAS to support assaults. 431/ ImageImageImageImage
The Nagorno-Karabakh MoD claims that they shot down Su-25 attack aircraft and Mi-24 helicopters today. 432/
t.me/military_arm/8… Image
Video reportedly of Armenian soldiers retaking an observation post. 433/
t.me/military_arm/8…
The Armenian MoD posted a video showing an aircraft getting shot down (they said it was an Azerbaijani UAV). 434/
435/
436/
437/
438/
439/
440/
Another video from the Armenian MoD showing Armenian indirect fire. 441/
Apparently, the video of the Azerbaijani loitering munition (likely a Harop) strike on that Armenian bus in Vardenis from September 29. 442/
The aftermath of that loitering munition strike from Tuesday. 443/ ImageImage
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 444/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
The Armenian MoD said that it’s S-300 air defense systems have shot aerial targets in the vicinity of Yerevan. This might be Armenia’s first use of the S-300 in combat. 445/
t.me/vestnikpvo/2122
Another video reportedly of Armenian S-300 air defenses shooting down UAVs over Abovyan tonight. 446/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Another video of Armenian air defenses in action tonight. 447/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Azerbaijan’s losses according to Nagorno-Karabakh officials as of 1800 today:
-1280 KIA 2700 WIA
-4 aircraft
-90 UAVs
-12 helicopters
-181 tanks and armored vehicles
-3 TOS-1A and 2 Smerch MLRS
448/
 t.me/military_arm/8… ImageImage
449/
450/
451/
More photos of 300mm 9M55K rockets launched by Azerbaijani BM-30 Smerch MLRS. These photos are reportedly from Ivanyan. Presumably, the rocket that went through that roof didn't detonate. 452/
Photo: Асатур Есаянц
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
453/
Some of the Armenian weapons captured by Azerbaijani forces from an earlier video, including a Serbian Zastava M-93 sniper rifle, PKM, AK-103, and a Kord 6P50 12.7mm heavy machine gun. 454/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImage
More photos of captured Armenian weapons, including another Kord HMG, AK-103, Zastava M-93, SVD, Pulsar Apex thermal sight, and an RG-6 40mm grenade launcher. 455/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Kornet ATGM and a damaged Ural-4320. 456/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImage
Photos of damaged vehicles from an Armenian convoy reportedly from September 27 (might be from the same video I posted yesterday). There were also photos of the bodies of several Armenian soldiers. 457/
t.me/milinfolive/63… ImageImageImageImage
The Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Forces released a video showing the bodies of several Azerbaijani soldiers. The Военный Осведомитель Telegram Channel counted 32 bodies (I won’t post the video). It looks as though they were killed by small arms fire. 458/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
The Armenian MoD claims that they shot down another aircraft and UAV this morning and that fighting continues along the border in Nagorno-Karabakh. 459/ Image
The Armenian MoD posted a video reportedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter being shot down. There's no footage before the flames, so it is difficult to assess what was downed. 460/
461/
Nagorno-Karabakh announced that 157 of its soldiers have died so far in the fighting. 462/
t.me/reartsakh/3939 Image
A new video from the Azerbaijani MoD of TB2 UCAV footage showing strikes on groups of soldiers, presumably from last night. It appears that TB2 are targeting troops now that much of Nagorno-Karabakh's air defense, artillery, and armor has been damaged.463/
The threat from TB2 is even greater at night as their thermal optics can pick up movement and vehicles quite easily. Soldiers also typically group together more at night time, particularly when they try to keep light discipline, leaving them very exposed to these attacks. 464/ ImageImageImageImage
Most of the strikes in that video appeared to give little warning to the soldiers, except for this one. It is possible that this strike didn't use a MAM TB2 munition but a loitering munition or artillery round instead. 465/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian trucks and other positions. Pretty obvious that the TB2 are going through their target priority list after destroying many of the high-value air defense, artillery, and armor targets in Nagorno-Karabakh. 466/
Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader Arayik Harutyunyan visited the two French Le Monde journalists who were wounded yesterday. 467/
t.me/reartsakh/3944
468/
The Azerbaijani MoD claims to have seized Madagiz and the high ground around it, and said they are having success in the direction of Jebrail-Fizuli. 469/
mod.gov.az/en/news/operat… Image
Video from Russian journalists with Telekanal Dozhd who came under fire yesterday in the town of Martuni in Nagorno-Karabakh. That’s also where the two French journalists were wounded. 470/
t.me/tvrain/31962
Armenia’s foreign ministry said on Friday it was ready to engage with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to re-establish a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. 471/
in.reuters.com/article/armeni…
This video published by Turkey's Haberturk was reportedly of an Armenian UAV being shot down by Azerbaijani air defenses. Instead, it is clearly an An-2 aircraft, presumably belonging to Azerbaijan. Was this an Azerbaijani friendly fire incident? 472/
t.me/bmpd_cast/3908
Another Russian news crew running for cover after coming under fire from Azerbaijani UAVs in Nagorno-Karabakh. No one was hurt. 473/
t.me/Lshot/21408
Another video posted yesterday by a Turkish news crew reportedly showing Armenian loitering munitions getting shot down near an Azerbaijani mortar position. Based on Google Translate, I believe the article said 20 Armenian UAVs have been shot down. 474/
ahaber.com.tr/video/gundem-v…
Video showing shelling in Nagorno-Karabakh and a house in Hadrut that was reportedly struck by a Smerch MLRS rocket. 475/
t.me/reartsakh/3949
476/
Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes, presumably that occurred over night. It looks like 3 MT-LB with ZU-23-2 or other AD cannons, one T-72 tank, one truck, and one observation post were struck. 477/
Those 3 MT-LB with ZU-23-2 or other air defense cannons and one T-72 tank. 478/ ImageImageImageImage
Photos of an Azerbaijani T-90S tank that was apparently knocked out of action. 479/
t.me/milinfolive/63… ImageImage
Strikes on Stepanakert. 480/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Photo of another Azerbaijani T-90S tank that was apparently damaged in the fighting. 481/
t.me/infantmilitari… Image
Warning graphic video. The Armenian MoD released a video showing Armenian artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions and small arms fire on a group of Azerbaijani soldiers running from a destroyed tank. 482/
483/
484/
First use of the Israeli-made LORA ballistic missile by Azerbaijan? 485/
t.me/milinfolive/63… Image
Not surprising they would choose to use the LORA for this target. It has a 10m CEP, unlike other long-range MLRS or Tochka-U, and it is large enough to take down a bridge, unlike a TB2 MAM munition. 486/
Here's a promotional video of the LORA during a test launch by IAI. 487/
Another TB2 UCAV video showing strikes on a Ural-4320 truck, soldiers in a trench line (possibly a mortar or artillery crew), and a vehicle on a road. 488/
Strikes on that Ural-4320 truck and soldiers in a trench line. MAM munitions are fairly small, and the strike against the soldiers appeared to hit the berm, so they likely all survived. 489/ ImageImageImageImage
Doesn't appear that Azerbaijan is looking to negotiate. 490/ Image
The Nagarno-Karabakh MoD released another video that started with recycled footage. The last part of the video shows what appears to be an MLRS salvo. 491/
Azerbaijan has claimed that Armenia fired ~10 Tochka-U missiles at the village of Sabirkend. 492/
mod.gov.az/en/news/inform… ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD denies Azerbaijan's claims. 493/
Video of the damage from Azerbaijani strikes on Stepanakert. 494/
Another video of the aftermath of Azerbaijani strikes on Stepanakert. 495/
t.me/bagramyan26/19…
496/
Another TB2 UCAV Video released by the Azerbaijani MoD with strikes on a tent (possible command post) and three tanks. 497/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian soldiers and a BMP-1. 498/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
Video of Stepanakert being shelled tonight. 499/
t.me/sashakots/17092
500/
There’s another video posted by Armenian soldiers after they apparently seized (or took back) an observation post from Azerbaijani soldiers. There are approximately 10 bodies in the video. 501/
t.me/military_arm/9…
Good ID by @EvstPalaiologos. The rifle does look like a JNG-90 sniper rifle. He’s also holding an optic, presumably a thermal or night vision scope, in his other hand. 502/ ImageImageImage
Armenian soldiers also came across an apparently damaged and abandoned Azerbaijani BTR-82A. It appears this was from the same location where one of the knocked out T-90S tanks was photographed as well. 503/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImage
One of the many disturbing things about the fighting this week in Nagorno-Karabakh is that videos and photos have been published almost daily of dozens of bodies of soldiers from both sides, but I haven't seen any videos or photos of prisoners. 504/
Armenia's losses according to the Azerbaijani MoD. 505/
mod.gov.az/en/news/list-o… Image
Lost Armor combined the Azerbajani TB2 strikes into a single 6 minute video they released earlier today (so it is missing a few). It started with recorded strikes on air defense systems (Osa-AKM and Strela-10). 506/
The compilation of TB2 strikes on Armenian tanks and artillery pieces. Pretty sure they missed some. 507/
Compilation of TB2 strikes on Armenian MLRS. 508/
Warning graphic video. Compilation of TB2 strikes on troop formations and MT-LB. 509/
510/
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD that appears to show TB2 strikes on 4 T-72 tanks, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, a group of troops in a defensive position, and an MT-LB from last night. 511/
512/
More strikes on Stepanakert. 513/
t.me/wargonzo/3573
Photo of a damaged building in Stepanakert, reportedly caused by Smerch MLRS. 514/
t.me/wargonzo/3572 Image
Video from a Russian correspondent running for cover in Stepanakert after four explosions. 515/
t.me/Lshot/21429
More photos of a damaged building in Stepanakert reportedly after a Smerch MLRS rocket strike. 516/
t.me/sashakots/17100 ImageImageImage
Another video from Azerbaijan. Look's like TB2 strikes on 2 BMP-1 and one MT-LB. The explosion at the end is too big to be a TB2 munition, possibly an aerial bomb. 517/
518/
Photos reportedly of Armenian soldiers being taken prisoner by Azerbaijan. If this is true, I suspect they will publish the identities of these soldiers. 519/
Video of damage after shelling in Stepanakert. 520/
t.me/reartsakh/4063
Video of Armenian artillery and mortar strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 521/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of musicians singing for soldiers, presumably near the front. They also gave the soldiers pamphlets with the obviously inflated figures for Armenian losses they have been publishing daily. 522/
ImageImage
523/
Nagorno-Karabakh officials published a video showing what appear to be Azerbaijani positions and vehicles on fire, including two tanks one of which was struck by an ATGM. 524/
Video of an Armenian ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani tank. 525/
Appears that video of Syrian fighters was in Azerbaijan. 526/
527/
Higher quality video of that Armenian ATGM strike on that Azerbaijani tank and a large explosion. 528/
Metin Gurcan reports that Azerbaijan is employing Turkish-made Kargu-2 loitering munitions in addition to TB2 UCAVs. 529/
al-monitor.com/pulse/original… Image
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing TB2 strikes on 5 Armenian T-72 tanks. 530/
Nagorno-Karabakh released the names of another 51 soldiers who were killed, bringing the death total to 202. A number of the soldiers were born in 2001 or 2002.
531/
 facebook.com/ArmenianUnifie… ImageImageImage
Novaya Gazeta's sources also say that Syrians have gone to Azerbaijan. They report that between 700-1,000 Syrians have gone to Azerbaijan, primarily to guard pipelines. They reportedly fly from Gaziantep to Baku, flying through Georgian air space. 532/
novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/… Image
Novaya Gazeta's source says that Syrian fighters receive $1,800 a month, guaranteed Turkish citizenship (including for there families), and a $30k payment if they are killed. They also report that ethnic Armenians in Syria may be traveling to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. 533/ Image
More graphic photos posted from the Armenian-side showing ~10 bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. 534/
t.me/military_arm/1…
The Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army posted a video earlier today showing soldiers near the front line, many of whom appear to be older reservists. The video was taken in the same location as the video from yesterday showing 32 Azerbaijani bodies. 535/
ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan accused Azerbaijan of using LAR-160 MLRS cluster munitions. 536/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImage
Video from Alexander Kots of damage to buildings in Stepanakert from Azerbaijani shelling. 537/
t.me/sashakots/17113
The Armenian MoD has claimed that Azerbaijan conducted a "large-scale attack" today. 538/ Image
The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan released this list of 243 Azerbaijani soldiers who have been killed in combat that they could confirm. He says the real figure is over 2,000, including mercenaries. 539/ Image
Semyon Pegov claims that a Nagorno-Karabakh sabotage group infiltrated behind Azerbaijani lines and destroyed a missile system that struck Stepanakert. He said it was an Israeli-made LORA. 540/
t.me/wargonzo/3579 Image
541/
542/
543/
I think that one of the take aways from this conflict is that Armenia's decision to procure Su-30SM fighters, which have played no role thus far, was a huge mistake. They could have procured Buk-M2, Pantsir-S1, or Tor-M2 batteries instead that could have countered the TB2. 544/
Ultimately, the Su-30SM fighters were a prestige procurement decision for these kind of videos. Nagorno-Karabakh's Osa-AKM and Strela-10 weren't able to stop the TB2, and Armenia has to keep its limited #'s of Buk-M1-2 and Tor-M2KM away from the FLOT. 545/
For those making fun of the Pantsir, the Pantsir-S1 that were destroyed in Libya and Syria had the older radars, and they still managed to shoot down plenty of TB2, enough to change Baku's calculus about how many they are willing to lose (they likely don't have many). 546/
547/
548/
549/
550/
551/
552/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of an Armenian position they seized. You can see two tanks and a destroyed truck. Notably, the positions aren't particularly well designed or fortified. 553/
Look's like two T-72A tanks and a burnt out Ural-4320. 554/ ImageImageImageImage
Surprising that Nagorno-Karabakh forces didn't reinforce these positions better over the years. 555/ ImageImageImage
556/
Here's the video of that strike (posted on September 30). Looks as though it may have only been a mobility kill. Something to keep in mind with these TB2 videos is that the MAM-L is a relatively small munition and requires a direct hit for a K-kill. 557/
558/
A response from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. 559/ Image
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing territory they seized, in this case near Talish where an Azerbaijani convoy was destroyed on September 28. 560/
This video was published by the Armenian MoD on September 27 showing Azerbaijani BMP-3 and an IMR-3 that was on fire in addition to the trucks. It appears both videos were shot from the same location of the same destroyed convoy. 561/
Armenian artillerymen firing an M-30 122mm howitzer at Azerbaijani positions. 562/
563/
Video of Armenian D-30 122mm howitzer crews. 564/
Video of Armenian soldiers coming under fire. 565/
566/
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a TB2 strike on a BM-21 Grad MLRS and what appears to be MLRS fire on Armenian positions at the end. 567/
Two videos of the two Azerbaijani T-90S tanks and BTR-82 that were knocked out together earlier this week. 568/
M
t.me/faceofwar/9882
Second part of that video showing the other T-90S and BTR-82A. 569/
570/
571/
Video of Stepanakert under fire today. 572/
t.me/Lshot/21452
573/
574/
575/
Video of a fire caused by Azerbaijani shelling on Stepanakert. 576/
t.me/Lshot/21459
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing loitering munitions, presumably Israeli-made Harop, striking 2 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzers, 2 T-72 tanks, a BM-21 Grad MLRS, an armory/depot, and a KAMAZ truck. 577/
578/
Another video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert. Appears that cluster munitions were used. 579/
Screenshots of the munitions used in the strike. 580/
ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hobhannisyan claimed that Azerbaijan was firing both Smerch and Polonez MLRS systems on Stepanakert. Ominously, he said "I call on the people of Azerbaijan to leave cities near military sites as soon as possible to avoid possible losses." 581/ Image
Video of Armenian strikes on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 582/
t.me/military_arm/1…
More evidence of cluster munitions being employed against Stepanakert. 583/
t.me/military_arm/1…
584/ Image
Another video that shows several bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. It appears it is somewhere in the mountains. 585/
t.me/ararathau/2736
Another video of intense shelling on Stepanakert. 586/
t.me/hmtorum/2944
That is a fairly large crater, larger than what a normal MLRS rocket explosion looks like. 587/ ImageImageImageImage
Photo of another Smerch MLRS rocket in Stepanakert. 588/
t.me/hmtorum/2935 Image
Another video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert. 589/
t.me/bagramyan26/19…
Looks like an Israeli-made Orbiter-1K or Orbiter-2 UAV crashed in Nagorno-Karabakh. 590/
t.me/bagramyan26/19…
Video of the aftermath of shelling on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 591/
Graphic video of the bodies of several Armenian soldiers. 592/
593/
The moment an Azerbaijani MLRS rocket lands in Stepanakert. 594/
t.me/wargonzo/3600
Doesn’t appear this rocket detonated. 595/ ImageImage
596/
597/
Video from the Armenian MoD showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets and a damaged or destroyed tank. 598/
Possibly an RPG strike on that Azerbaijani tank. 599/
Warning graphic. Video from the Armenian MoD showing an offensive by Azerbaijani forces in the Mataghis gorge showing artillery strikes and 3 ATGM on a platoon (+) force without sufficient dispersion. 600/
You can see why the front line hasn't moved much for years. This terrain is difficult for an attacking force as vehicles have to stay on the roads, the defender has good observation, and the defender can register the gorge for mortar and artillery fire. 601/ ImageImageImageImage
ATGM fire on a vehicle and groups of troops. Because of the canalizing terrain, once you destroy the lead vehicle on those roads, it is difficult for them to keep advancing. 602/ ImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani platoon-sized force was also moving in a tight file formation, instead of by squad or fire team with greater dispersion. That put them at greater risk of detection and more vulnerable to indirect fire. This unit may have sustained 20 + casualties. 603/ ImageImageImageImage
Video released by Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces that shows parts of the videos previously released by the Armenian MoD. You can see strikes on vehicles in that same gorge before the infantry force in the earlier video from the Armenian MoD. 604/
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of a position they say they seized. 605/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-az…
Azerbaijan also posted a video of Armenian mortars and Ural and KAMAZ trucks that they captured in the Jabrayil direction. 606/
mod.gov.az/en/news/a-larg…
Video of damaged and destroyed buildings in Stepanakert after Azerbaijani shelling. 607/
t.me/Lshot/21469
Nagorno-Karabakh D-20 howitzers. 608/
t.me/wargonzo/3605
Azerbaijani forces captured three Armenian tanks (2 T-72A and 1 T-72B). 609/
t.me/bmpd_cast/3970 ImageImageImageImage
Armenia fired Smerch MLRS rockets at the Azerbaijani city of Ganja today. 610/
Photos: Михаил Воскресенский
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImage
From Armenian officials. 611/
facebook.com/ArmenianUnifie… Image
Photos of Stepanakert. The big take aways from today is that this conflict isn’t showing any signs of slowing down and both sides are launching MLRS strikes on populated areas. It will likely get worse. 612/
t.me/sashakots/17135 ImageImage
613/
614/
615/
616/
Azerbaijani officials claim that Armenia launched Tochka ballistic missiles at Mingachevir. 167/ Image
These are Smerch rockets not Tochkas though (maybe both were launched). 168/
169/
Another video reportedly from the Mataghis gorge. Pretty clear that these Azerbaijani forces didn't expect to run into opposition here since they led with unarmored jeeps and Ural-4320 trucks. Instead they ran into Armenian ATGM crews. 170/
171/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman denied Azerbaijan's claim that Armenia targeted Khizi and Absheron. (Correcting the numbering on my tweets) 622/ Image
According to the Armenian MoD’s Artsrun Hovhannisyan, Azerbaijan sustained 400 KIA and 700 WIA today, which as usual seems inflated. 623/
t.me/reartsakh/4231 Image
According to the Armenian MoD, these are Azerbaijan's losses as of 9:00 p.m. 624/ Image
625/
Armenian D-20 152mm howitzer crews in action. 626/
t.me/new_militaryco…
627/
628/
Video of Azerbaijani indirect fire on Stepanakert. 629/
Azerbaijan released a video it claims shows Armenian forces launching rockets from within Armenian proper against Azerbaijan. 630/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-te…
Another two rockets from a Smerch MLRS system in Stepanakert. 631/
t.me/sashakots/17168 ImageImage
RIA Novosti reports that there were 322 Syrian mercenaries in Nagorno-Karabakh on October 1 with another 430 arriving over the weekend. They report that 93 Syrian mercenaries have been killed so far, and that 53 bodies have been returned to Syria. 632/
ria.ru/20201005/karab…
633/
634/
Nagorno-Karabakh officials announced that another 21 soldiers have died. 635/
t.me/reartsakh/4290 Image
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman announced that a soldier shot down two Azerbaijani Su-25 aircraft with Igla MANPADS on October 1st. 636/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Photos of a Smerch MLRS rocket from Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 637/
t.me/artsrun_offici… ImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD published a video after retaking the village of Talish. 638/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
639/
The Russian PMC-linked RSOTM account strongly hinting that Russian private military contractors are on their way to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. (h/t @Archer83Able) 640/
t.me/grey_zone/5126 Image
If this is true, presumably we will see some evidence. 641/ Image
642/
643/
644/
645/
646/
647/
Notably, Artsrun Hovhannisyan acknowledged that Azerbaijan has had some battlefield successes. 648/
649/ Image
Video of the fighting yesterday between Armenia and Azerbaijan from across the border in Aslan Duz, Iran. 650/
vk.com/wall-123538639…
Additional photos of the Smerch MLRS rocket in Mingachevir. 651/
Photos: Михаил Воскресенский
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Video of an ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani tank. 652/
Azerbaijan displayed some of the captured Armenian equipment, including 9M111 Fagot ATGMs, D-30 122m howitzers, OG-7V rounds, and T-72 tanks. 653/
mod.gov.az/en/news/seized… ImageImageImageImage
Photos of the three captured tanks, 2 T-72B and 1 T-72AV. 654/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Interestingly, Azerbaijan hasn't published any videos of Spike ATGMs being used during the recent fighting. 655/
First good news since the fighting began. 656/
The Azerbaijani MoD published a video of territory they say they have seized. 657/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
658/
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was in Nagorno-Karabakh today meeting with military leaders and NK President Arayik Harutyunyan. 659/
t.me/haywave/640
Video of an Azerbaijani strike on Stepanakert. 660/
t.me/wargonzo/3641
NKR defense forces added another 21 names of soldiers killed during fighting with Azerbaijan. 661/
facebook.com/ArmenianUnifie… Image
Video from Azerbaijan of captured Armenian equipment (some of it was photographed and released yesterday), including a D-30 122mm battery without cover, Ural and KAMAZ trucks, a destroyed BMP-1, and UAZ-31514. 662/
Azerbaijan’s losses according to Armenia (yes, I know they’re inflated). 663/
t.me/military_arm/1… Image
Sergey Naryshkin, the Director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, said that hundreds or thousands of mercenaries from the Middle East, including from Jabhat al-Nusra, Firqat al-Hamza, and Sultan Murad, are fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. 664/
svr.gov.ru/smi/2020/10/o-… Image
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman:
665/
 facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Video of damage caused by Azerbaijani shelling in the town of Hadrut. 666/
t.me/sashakots/17191
667/
Artillery and MLRS fire is still occurring and each side says that fighting continues along the front, but, interestingly, over the past two days Azerbaijan hasn't released any TB2 videos and Armenia only released one video of fighting yesterday (likely from earlier). 668/
Not sure why both sides have largely stopped publishing combat footage over the past two days, especially since both sides say that plenty of fighting is continuing. Maybe it doesn't mean anything, but it is interesting to note. 669/
A number of people have noted that the poor weather today and yesterday could be a contributing factor. That would affect TB2 but the Armenian videos have been taken from the ground. Either way, Armenia would be smart to move in reinforcements while the weather is poor. 670/
Video reportedly of an Armenian strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja from yesterday. 671/
t.me/babahkarabah/9…
Another video allegedly of an Armenian strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja yesterday. 672/
t.me/babahkarabah/9…
673/
674/
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing an Armenian position and equipment they captured, including mortars, ATGMs, and Ural and KAMAZ trucks. 675/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
I've seen a few of these machine guns or other systems captured from Armenia designed to be operated from cover in a trench. Some World War I vibes. 676/ ImageImageImage
Some fairly old mortars at that position. 677/ ImageImageImage
678/
Hopefully someone can geolocate where this was launched. 679/
The NKR defense forces posted another video of bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers and an Azerbaijani flag on fire. The location looks similar to a previous video they posted. 680/
681/
682/
Video of Stepanakert being shelled by Azerbaijan. 683/
t.me/sashakots/17198
Statement from the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman in response to claims from Azerbaijani officials that Armenia targeted the BTC pipeline. 684/ Image
685/
It seems awfully suspicious that all of those cluster munitions would land so close together, and who would pick up live UXO to put them together for a photo if they landed farther apart? 686/ ImageImage
687/
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 688/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Footage of Armenian strikes (presumably from MLRS) on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja from Monday. 689/
t.me/babahkarabah/9…
690/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of Azerbaijani troops capturing the village of Shukurbayli in the Jabrayil region. 691/
The Armenian MoD posted this video they said is of Azerbajani forces in Jabrayil who were turned back by Armenian resistance. There is footage of something on fire, but it doesn't show the convoy under fire. 692/
But the footage once again indicates that Azerbaijani forces often aren't operating as though they are in a combat environment facing an indirect fire threat. Especially with so many unarmored trucks and vehicles near Armenian positions. 693/ ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan posted these photos that appear to show Armenian indirect fire on the Azerbaijani convoy. Clearly, Armenian forward observers had good observation of the route. 694/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… ImageImageImageImage
This footage is allegedly of an Armenian strike on an Azerbaijani petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) depot. 695/
t.me/military_arm/1…
Sounds like an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition overhead in Stepanakert. 696/
t.me/sashakots/17206
The Armenian MoD posted a video they claim is of an Azerbaijani UAV that was shot down. 697/
Looks like a large UAV, maybe a Hermes 450? 698/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of loitering munitions striking two Armenian T-72 tanks. 699/
Screenshots of the two Armenian T-72 tanks targeted by Azerbaijani loitering munitions, possibly Harops. 700/ ImageImage
701/
Video from Semyon Pegov with the sound of Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. 702/
t.me/wargonzo/3651
Armenian losses according to the Azerbaijani MoD as of this morning:
-up to 250 tanks and armored vehicles
-up to 270 MLRS, artillery, and mortars
-up to 60 air defense systems
-11 CP/OPs
-8 ammo depots
-up to 150 vehicles
-1 S-300 air defense system
703/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/list-o… Image
The total Azerbaijani losses according to Armenia:
-127 UAVs
-16 helicopters
-17 aircraft
-416 tanks and armored vehicles
-4 MLRS
-3754 casualties (maybe KIA?)
704/
 t.me/artsrun_offici… Image
The Armenian MoD said they destroyed another Azerbaijani storage facility. 705/
706/
The Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces announced the names of another 40 soldiers who were killed in fighting with Azerbaijan. 707/
facebook.com/ArmenianUnifie… ImageImage
708/
709/
710/
Another video with Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. They seek to be out in force today over Stepanakert. 711/
t.me/sashakots/17207
712/
Azerbaijan released a video of Azerbaijani forces in the village of Shaybey in the Jabrayil region that they captured. 713/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-sh…
Putin's comments when asked about the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. 714/
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside… Image
Photo of a woman outside her home in Stepanakert. 715/
bbc.com/news/world-eur… Image
Video allegedly of two Azerbaijani T-72 tanks captured by Armenian forces (there are three tanks in the video though). 716/
t.me/infoteka24/8219
As a few of you pointed out, these look like Armenian tanks. 717/
The death total for Nagorno-Karabakh’s defense forces has reached 280 since the beginning of the conflict. 718/
t.me/reartsakh/4459 Image
719/
The additional 40 names announced today brings the death total for Armenian soldiers to 320 since fighting began last week. 720/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
Video of loitering munitions targeting an Armenian 2S3 howitzer and a tank. Interestingly, the Azerbaijani MoD didn't publish this video itself but instead gave it to a Turkish account. 721/
Video published by the NKR showing artillery and mortar strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers, as well as some footage, previously published, of strikes on a storage depot. 722/
Longer video of those Azerbaijani loitering munition strikes on an Armenian 2S3 howitzer and a tank. 723/
724/
Armenia released its third list of the 415 Azerbaijani soldiers who they say have been killed in the fighting and identified. They say the actual death total is 3454 including mercenaries. 725/
t.me/KarabakhRecord… Image
New video from the Armenian MoD that appear to show artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets, including a towed howitzer or anti-tank gun. 726/
Some photos were published a few days ago that purportedly showed captured Armenian soldiers, but Azerbaijan never gave us their identities, which was suspicious. Now it appears they were fake. 727/
That was an Azerbaijani MT-12 Rapira 100mm anti-tank gun in that video posted by the Armenian MoD. 728/ ImageImageImage
729/
Video allegedly of a retreating Armenian convoy that was captured by Azerbaijani forces. 730/
Another video of loitering munitions flying over Nagorno-Karabakh. 731/
t.me/anna_news/8457
Azerbaijan posted another video of UAZ jeeps and trucks they claim were captured from Armenia. 732/
733/
734/
735/
Georgia's Ministry of Internal Affairs said that two UAVs crashed near the villages of Udabno and Sanavardo on October 7 at 6:35 and 6:45 p.m. (h/t @avsec_pro) 736/
police.ge/en/14025 Image
Claims from the Azerbaijani MoD. 737/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD… ImageImageImageImage
738/
Photos of Azerbaijani SOF reportedly from the town of Jabrayil. The second photo appears to be from the Armenian convoy that was apparently abandoned (a video was released earlier). Obviously, Azerbaijani SOF is playing a central role. 739/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
From the video with the three T-72 tanks there was an Armenian UAZ pickup technical with an HMG. 740/
Image
Photos of the damage from Azerbaijani MLRS fire in Stepanakert. 741/
civilnet.am/news/2020/10/0… ImageImageImageImage
Video from the Armenian-side showing mortar or artillery fire on Azerbaijani troops retreating from a trench. I wonder if the Azerbaijanis seized that position from the Armenians, but couldn't hold it after coming under indirect fire. 742/
Claims from Armenian officials. 743/ ImageImage
Screenshots from that video of Armenian mortar fire on Azerbaijani soldiers. Competent units record the coordinates of their defensive positions and give them to indirect fire assets so that they can immediately shell them with first round effects if they are captured. 744/ ImageImageImageImage
Both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces posted photos of bodies from each other’s forces. In this screenshot, Armenian forces supposedly captured an Azerbaijani T-72 tank. 745/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
t.me/milinfolive/63… Image
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video showing a truck that brings musicians, leaflets, and a TV showing Azerbaijani TB2 strikes on Armenian targets to Azerbaijani soldiers. 746/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
747/
Photos purportedly of one of the UAVs that crashed in Georgia, possibly an Israeli-made Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition. 748/
Video of that crashed UAV, possibly a Harop loitering munition. Generally not a great idea to pick those up. 749/
This means that aircraft or UAVs from the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have crashed into both Georgia and Iran thus far. 750/
Video from where Azerbaijan says Armenia targeted the BTC pipeline with a Smerch rocket with cluster munitions. The fact that the cluster munitions are so close together (and none apparently detonated) with no sign of the rocket is quite suspicious. 751/
Video of Azerbaijani civilians who live near the front lines. Notably, they say that every home has a bomb shelter. 752/
753/
Azerbaijan published a UAV video showing massed artillery strikes (maybe from an artillery battalion?) on what they claim are Armenian headquarters, infrastructure, and ammunition depots from last night. 754/
Screenshots from the video. It appears 10 rounds land within seconds at the beginning of the video, possibly indicating two batteries firing together. 755/ ImageImageImageImage
The director of Armenia’s National Security Service was dismissed. 756/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
@ragipsoylu confirms the NYT report that showed at least 2 Turkish F-16 fighters at the Ganja Airport on October 3. He reports the Turkish F-16s never left after an exercise in July, but that they departed after the October 4th strikes on the city. 757/
middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-ar… Image
Though his sources say the Turkish F-16 fighters were left behind as a deterrent against Armenian strikes, and that they "haven't participated in Azerbaijani operations in the Karabakh region nor they have shot down an Armenian jet as Yerevan claimed" 758/
middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-ar…
Video from the Armenian MoD showing a strike on an Azerbaijani vehicle. It looks like an ATGM strike, but I couldn't spot the missile. 759/
As @CarlesHeredia suggested, this may have been an IED strike with a directional charge (possibly like an EFP) located in that berm. 760/
Beginning of the video that appears to show an Azerbaijani vehicle on fire. 761/
762/
Azerbaijan's military losses according to the Armenian MoD.
763/ Image
During an interview from a few days ago, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev: “Thanks to advanced Turkish drones owned by the Azerbaijan military, our casualties on the front shrunk,” "These drones show Turkey’s strength. It also empowers us.” 764/
middleeasteye.net/news/armenia-a…
More photos of the damage to the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha from Azerbaijani shelling. 765/
t.me/reartsakh/4551 ImageImageImageImage
766/
767/
Video of the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha which was damaged by Azerbaijani indirect fire. 768/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Video just after the Azerbaijani strikes on the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha. 769/
t.me/sashakots/17226
Video of an Azerbaijani loitering munition striking what appears to be a BM-21 Grad MLRS. 770/
t.me/new_militaryco…
771/
772/
Azerbaijani SPIKE-ER and SPIKE-MR/LR ATGM (though likely not combat footage). 773/
ImageImage
From the Azerbaijani MoD.
774/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-te… Image
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD that appears to show 5 damaged/destroyed Armenian T-72 tanks and one BMP-2 and 5 captured Armenian T-72 tanks. 775/
776/
The wreckage from these photos looks a lot like an Israeli Harop loitering munition, which Azerbaijan has been employing. 777/
778/
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD. A couple notable things: 1) this is the 1st video showing a TB2 strike in 3 days 2) Armenia is beginning to use tarps to camouflage their vehicles from UAVs 3) the Armenian vehicles at the end were bunched together. 779/
780/
Not particularly convincing message from the Azerbaijani MoD. 781/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD… Image
Stepanakert is under fire again. 782/
t.me/breakingmash/2…
783/
The Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotyonok is reportedly one of the three journalists wounded by the Azerbaijani shelling on the Cathedral in Shusha. He is reportedly fighting for his life. 784/
Screenshots from that Azerbaijani UAV footage showing a TB2 strike on a possible camouflaged artillery piece, and artillery strikes on Armenian positions and vehicles. 785/ ImageImageImageImage
Video after the second strike on the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral that wounded 10, including 3 journalists. You can see the hole in the roof is much larger than after the first strike. 786/
t.me/sashakots/17248
The ANNA News crew say that fragments from one of the munitions used on the Cathedral in Shushi was a NATO-made aerial bomb. They are suggesting that Turkish F-16 fighters may have been involved. 787/
t.me/anna_news/8513 Image
Some of the witnesses are suggesting it was an aerial attack, though a 250 or 500lb bomb would do more damage than what I saw in the footage. 788/
t.me/wargonzo/3686
What appears to be two Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. 789/
t.me/bch3by/1256
Video purportedly of an Armenian UAV shot down by Azerbaijan. 790/
t.me/faceofwar/9970
New TB2 UCAV video from the Azerbaijani MoD. The strikes are all on tanks or artillery in cover with camo nets. Azerbaijan appears to be going after specific parts of Armenia's defensive line with TB2 likely in preparation for an assault. 791/
We didn't see any TB2 footage over the past 2-3 days with strikes on Armenian targets. Now with better weather, they are out striking targets again, but Armenia has begun to camouflage its armor/arty from the air. Though that won't stop the TB2 when they are close enough. 792/ ImageImageImage
Presumably, the damage to this captured Armenian tank was caused by a TB2 UCAV MAM-L munition. 793/
t.me/infantmilitari…
More photos of the aftermath of the shelling of the cathedral in Shushi. 794/
t.me/anna_news/8516 ImageImageImageImage
795/
Video posted yesterday that appears to show Azerbaijani loitering munitions striking two targets and a UAV recording footage of another strike. Hard to tell what was hit. 796/
t.me/babahkarabah/9…
Video of Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotyonok being carried out of the cathedral in Shushi after he was wounded in the Azerbaijani strike. 797/
t.me/new_militaryco…
The Clash Report Telegram channel compiled the various videos of TB2 and loitering munition strikes on Armenian targets from the beginning of the conflict until October 5. 798/
t.me/ClashReport/732
There have been claims or evidence that munitions or aircraft from the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now landed/crashed in Georgia, Iran, and now possibly Russia. 799/
The Clash Report Telegram channel is claiming that Azerbaijan’s TB2 destroyed an Armenian Tor AD system. Armenia received Tor-M2KM last December (on a wheeled KAMAZ-63501 chassis). 800/
t.me/ClashReport/733 ImageImage
Russia's Tor-M2 variants are likely its best air defense system for countering UAVs, and they proved more effective than Pantsir-S systems at Khmeimim at countering UAVs. But Armenia doesn't have many and was likely holding them back from the FLOT, not wanting to risk them. 801/
More photos of the damage to the cathedral in Shushi/Shusha today. 802/
t.me/sashakots/17271 ImageImageImageImage
More photos of the damage to the cathedral in Shushi/Shusha today. 803/
t.me/sashakots/17271 ImageImageImageImage
Possibly the first POW taken so far in this conflict that has already killed hundreds on both sides. 804/
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Yerevan today. 805/
t.me/Lshot/21618
Another video of the damage to the cathedral in Shusha/Shushi. 806/
t.me/Lshot/21624
807/
Azerbaijani MoD TB2 UCAV footage of strikes (from MAM munitions and MLRS/arty) from last night on 7 armored vehicles, including what looks like at least 4 T-72 tanks, a BMP-2, and two other armored vehicles. Terrible dispersion by the Armenian unit. 808/
Looks like 7 T-72 tanks, ~6 BMPs, possibly a 2S1 Gvozdika howitzer, and trucks. It looked like there were 4 MAM-L/C strikes on T-72 tanks (not all K-kills), and an artillery or MLRS round at the end that possibly destroyed a BMP. You can't do this with an aerial threat. 809/ ImageImageImageImage
Not sure what vehicles were struck in these two screenshots, but the first looks similar to a TOS-1A MLRS. 810/
mod.gov.az/en/news/a-larg… ImageImage
Clash Report claims that an Osa air defense system was destroyed in this video. Likely the vehicle between the KAMAZ trucks. (H/t @WithinSyriaBlog) 811/
t.me/ClashReport/735 Image
812/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian targets last night, all appeared to be on soldiers in defensive positions. Seems that the TB2 are increasingly targeting specific defensive positions before Azerbaijani assaults rather than interdiction. 813/
mod.gov.az/en/news/fierce…
814/
From the same area as yesterday's strikes in this video. 815/
Screenshots of the Armenian soldiers in defensive positions targeted by TB2 UCAV strikes last night. 816/
mod.gov.az/en/news/fierce… ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD says that they destroyed 13 T-72 tanks, 2 IFVs, 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 2 2S3 Akatsiya howitzers, 3 D-30 howitzers, 2 radar systems, and, a large number of enemy vehicles so far today and last night. They also claim they captured 6 T-72.817/
mod.gov.az/en/news/fierce… Image
818/
Azerbaijan destroyed another 3 Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS with TB2 UCAVs. 819/
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers capturing Jabrayil. Notably, it looks like Azerbaijani SOF played a key role here. 820/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-fl…
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers repainting captured Armenian BMP-2 IFV and T-72 tanks. 821/
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev admitted that Turkish F-16 fighters are in Azerbaijan but he said, "F-16s are on the ground. They are not flying. They are not in anyway participating in any kind of battle." 822/
arabic.cnn.com/world/video/20…
Notably, during an interview from two days ago, Hikmet Hajiev, assistant to the President of Azerbaijan and the head of foreign policy affairs for the administration, denied that there were any F-16 fighters in Azerbaijan. 823/
spectator.us/azerbaijan-vie… ImageImage
824/
825/ Image
The Armenian MoD posted another video purportedly showing strikes on Azerbaijani vehicles. Hard to tell what happened in the video but clearly several trucks and vehicles are on fire. 826/
827/
Photo allegedly of an Azerbaijani UAV shot down over Stepanakert. 828/
t.me/milinfolive/63… Image
New video of TB2 UCAV strikes on what appear to be an Armenian P-18 radar and possibly a Repellent EW system.
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD of the village of Sugovushan in Terter that they say they have captured. 830/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-su…
A good look at the terrain in the region. 831/ ImageImageImageImage
Alexander Kots posted a photo in response to Azerbaijan’s claim that it has taken Hadrut. 832/
t.me/wargonzo/3714 Image
And an NKR crew posted a video they say is from Hadrut. 833/
834/
There is a video taken from an Azerbaijani soldier showing ~20 bodies of Armenian soldiers on a road allegedly near Fuzuli. 835/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4161
836/
Another TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD with strikes on what appear to be 4 Armenian T-72 tanks, one 2S1 Gvozdika howitzer, one BMP-2, one BM-21 Grad MLRS, and another vehicle that is hard to ID. 837/
The final T-72 tank in that video looks like it was from the same armored group from two previous TB2 UCAV videos. 838/ ImageImageImage
839/
840/
841/
A captured Armenian Kornet-E ATGM launcher. 842/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-ta… Image
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers in Talish after capturing the town. 843/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-ta…
This wouldn't be shocking if it turns out to be true. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of using the Polonez MLRS system on multiple occasions during the fighting. Like Russia, Belarus has been willing to arm its CSTO-ally's adversary. 844/
845/
Video from yesterday of Azerbaijani troops near the front in Jabrayil with Mi-35M and Mi-17 helicopters; SandCat, Marauder and Matador MRAPs; Ural/KAMAZ trucks; and a captured MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons. 846/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4131
Another video of that captured MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons and Azerbaijani DANA 152mm self-propelled howitzers near the front. 847/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4131
Azerbaijani T-90S tanks and SandCat vehicles. 848/
ImageImageImageImage
Another video showing Azerbaijani T-72 tanks, BMP-3 IFVs, and captured Armenian vehicles. 849/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4132
850/
The Armenian side released a video showing what appears to be two damaged Azerbaijani BTR-82 and a BMP-3. 851/
Turkey is squeezing out as much positive PR about their TB2 UCAVs in Nagorno-Karabakh that they can after doing the same in Idlib and Libya. 852/
t.me/ClashReport/746
Regarding the Azerbaijani MoD’s claim that it destroyed two S-300 air defense systems, here is a loitering munition targeting what appears to be an Armenian 36D6 radar commonly used as the acquisition radar for older S-300P-series AD systems. 853/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
And another Azerbaijani loitering munition struck one of the Armenian S-300's TELs. 854/
Another Azerbaijani loitering munition attack, likely from a Harop, on an Armenian T-72 tank. 855/
Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on an Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS. Of note, many of these videos are likely from a few days ago. 856/
Another Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on an S-300 radar, reportedly an ST-68U/19Zh6 Tin Shield. 857/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
The Armenian MoD and the Azerbaijani MoD have both accused each other of violating the ceasefire that was supposed to begin at noon today. 858/
mod.gov.az/en/news/armeni… ImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman accused Azerbaijan of employing armed UAVs in Armenian proper. 859/ ImageImage
It doesn't appear that the cease fire is holding everywhere, but at least Stepanakert appears to be quiet for the moment. 860/
From the Turkish MoD. 861/
Azerbaijan claimed that Armenia launched a tactical ballistic missile at Mingachevir yesterday and that its air defenses shot the missile down. Today, they posted photos they say are from a 9K72 Elbrus Scud missile. 862/
mod.gov.az/en/news/photos… ImageImageImageImage
More photos from the remnants of what Azerbaijan says is missile from a 9K72 Elbrus Scud, clearly with cluster munitions. 863/
mod.gov.az/en/news/photos… ImageImage
A couple of videos emerged on Telegram yesterday showing an Armenian 9K72 Elbrus missile launch, though the date isn’t known (and the missile is far larger than what was shown in the photos). 864/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4194
It certainly appears that the Azerbaijani MoD has lied again about a purported Armenian MLRS or tactical ballistic missile launch against its territory. 865/
866/
867/
Azerbaijan published a number of TB2 UCAV videos from last night. This video shows 4 MAM munition strikes on troops in trenches and defensive positions and one on a truck. 868/
The Azerbaijani MoD said it destroyed 13 tanks, 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 6 D-20 D-30 howitzers, 3 2S3 Akatsiya howitzers, 2 M55 Zastava cannons (likely on MT-LB), and 2 radar/EW systems. Clash Report claims they also destroyed 4 Osa and 2 Kub AD systems. 869/
mod.gov.az/en/news/intens… ImageImage
More photos of the munition used in the strike on the cathedral in Shusha/Shushi from the other day. 870/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on 3 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers and a fourth that was already on fire exploding (it may have been one of the 3 that was struck by the TB2). The Az MoD may have incorrectly counted these as 3 2S3 Akatsiya. 871/
Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes on 6 Armenian T-72 tanks. 872/
4 of the Armenian T-72 tanks targeted in that video. 873/ ImageImageImageImage
TB2 strikes on 4 D-20 howitzers and a fifth artillery piece (not sure what it is). 874/
The first screenshot is of that artillery piece (AA gun?) I can't ID, and the other three are of D-20 howitzers. 875/ ImageImageImageImage
Another Azerbaijani MoD video of TB2 UCAV strikes on two MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons and a third vehicle in cover with a tarp over the top. Azerbaijan claims these vehicles violated the cease fire. 876/
mod.gov.az/en/news/armore…
Those two MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons and a third vehicle with camouflage. 877/ ImageImageImage
NKR announced that Armenia/NKR have lost 404 soldiers since the beginning of the conflict. 878/
t.me/reartsakheng/3… Image
879/
Another video of Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV strikes on 3 Armenian D-30 howitzers and troops in a trench. 880/
Ok, this does look like a Tochka ballistic missile. 881/
Graphic TB2 video with strikes on 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, and 3 Ural-4320 trucks (and 2 D-20 howitzers). I believe this is the most TB2 videos Baku has released on a single day, and pretty obvious they maximized their strikes before the cease fire. 882/
2 of the BM-21 Grad MLRS and 2 Ural-4320 with D-20 howitzers. Some of the footage Azerbaijan has released today, including this video, has come after the cease fire went into effect. 883/ ImageImageImageImage
Another video with TB2 strikes on a 2K11 Krug air defense system's 1S32 fire control and command guidance radar, and 3 Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELARs. Notably, Clash Report reported these losses hours ago, before the Azerbaijani MoD said anything. 884/
Semyon Pegov in Hadrut near the fighting. 885/
t.me/military_arm/1…
Alexander Kots is also in Hadrut. He claims that a group of 200 Azerbaijani SOF tried to infiltrate the city last night and Armenian forces are now pushing them back. 886/
t.me/military_arm/1…
Semyon Pegov with an Armenian sniper team firing on targets outside of Hadrut. 887/
t.me/militarymaps/1…
Based on how incompetent these guys look, I wouldn't be surprised if they have taken heavy casualties in Nagorno-Karabakh. 888/
From the Azerbaijani MoD.
889/ Image
Photo from Hadrut. 890/
t.me/sashakots/17305 Image
891/
From the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. He says that the ceasefire has largely been maintained since noon, and he accused Azerbaijan of conducting offensive actions, including in Hadrut, right before the ceasefire came into effect. 892/ Image
893/
894/
895/
896/
897/
898/
899/
Photos from the shelling overnight in Ganja. 900/
t.me/ClashReport/760 ImageImageImageImage
901/
902/
903/
904/
Footage from Ganja. 905/
This does look like a rocket from a Smerch MLRS. 906/
The Armenian MoD is claiming that Turkey and Israel continue to deliver combat UAVs to Azerbaijan, and that Turkey is commanding the TB2 UCAVs with AEW&C aircraft flying in Turkish airspace, as well as 6 F-16 fighters. 907/ ImageImage
The damage in Ganja is extensive. 908/
909/
Video of the destruction in Ganja from early this morning. 910/
t.me/AzeSputnik/4877
911/
NKR announced the names of another 21 soldiers who were killed in the fighting, bringing the total to 429. 912/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
UAV footage of the strike on Ganja from last night. 913/
anadoluimages.com/Search?phrase=…
Photos of the destruction in Ganja after last night's strike. 914/
Photos: Anadolu Agency
anadoluimages.com/p/residential-… ImageImageImageImage
Video of 7 TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian/NKR trucks and soldiers in defensive positions. 915/
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that last night they destroyed:
-5 T-72 tanks
-6 D-20 and D-30 howitzers
-5 trucks with ammunition
-11 vehicles
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-5 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers
-8 air defense systems
-1 radar station
916/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/during… Image
Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 strikes on 5 Armenian trucks. 917/
UAV footage of the destruction in Ganja after last night’s strike. 918/
t.me/AzeSputnik/4913
919/
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video showing what they claim is one of their air defense systems shooting down an Armenian UAV in the direction of Mingachevir. 920/
Video of NKR snipers outside of Hadrut. 921/
t.me/wargonzo/3730
This does look like a Harop loitering munition striking this truck. 922/ ImageImage
923/
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing journalists in Talish. 924/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
Photos of a Nagorno-Karabakh sniper team with a SSG 08 sniper rifle, Schmidt and Bender scope, and Spartanets helmet. 925/
t.me/milinfolive/63… ImageImageImageImage
926/
Azerbaijan published a video from the town of Dashkasan in the Jabrayil region. 927/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-da…
CCTV footage of the moment of impact from that strike on Ganja last night. 928/
t.me/babahkarabah/1…
Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on what looks like an Armenian 2P25 TEL for a 2K12 Kub air defense system. 929/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
NKR published a video that appears to show artillery strikes on two or three Azerbaijani armored vehicles. 930/
NKR also posted a video of what appears to be an Azerbaijani loitering munition that crashed or was shot down. 931/
Screenshots of that loitering munition or UAV. 932/ ImageImageImageImage
933/
934/
Azerbaijan released a video it said is from the village of Horadiz village in the Fizuli region. The video starts with two T-72 tanks (one looks damaged not sure about the other) and several destroyed Ural and KAMAZ trucks. 935/
Screenshots of those T-72 tanks and Ural and KAMAZ trucks. 936/ ImageImageImageImage
937/
938/
Video posted yesterday of Azerbaijani soldiers removing their dead while the ceasefire was apparently in effect. 939/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
According to Alexander Kots, this is Azerbaijani artillery fire on Hadrut. 940/
t.me/sashakots/17326
More photos posted by the Artsun Hovhannisyan of that presumed Israeli loitering munition. 941/
t.me/artsrun_offici… ImageImageImageImage
Azerbaijan posted a video from the town of Sugovushan in the Terter region. 942/
mod.gov.az/en/news/new-vi…
Part two of that video in Sugovushan. 943/
mod.gov.az/en/news/new-vi…
944/
Video of Hadrut from the ANNA News crew who say that it is under the control of NKR forces. 945/
t.me/anna_news/8632
946/
The ANNA News crew found an MLRS rocket and cluster munition near Hadrut. 947/
t.me/anna_news/8630 ImageImage
948/
Azerbaijan said that they shot down 2 Armenian UAVs, 2 near Tovuz and one in Aghdam. The UAV pictured looks different that the X-55. 949/
mod.gov.az/en/news/3-uavs…
This might be an Armenian ARMY-55M UAV. 950/ ImageImage
951/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video from the town of Suleymanli in Jabrayil. 952/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-su…
Another video of Azerbaijani An-2 aircraft being shot down. 953/
t.me/artsrun_offici…
NKR officials announced the names of another 51 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 480. 954/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
955/
956/
957/
958/
959/
From the photos released yesterday by the Armenian MoD of Azerbaijani UAVs, these photos seem to show the wingtips of a Zarba loitering munition, which is a licensed produced version of the Orbiter 1K. 960/
defence-blog.com/news/azad-syst… ImageImageImage
From an RT crew in Hadrut, which appears to be the center of the fighting over the past few days. 961/
t.me/rt_russian/477…
Second half of that video from Hadrut. 962/
963/
964/
965/
Photos of NKR soldiers and shelling in Hadrut. 966/
t.me/sashakots/17339 ImageImageImageImage
Photos of an NKR sniper team outside of Hadrut. Note the EOTech and SSG 08. 967/
t.me/sashakots/17339 ImageImageImageImage
Not sure about that position. 968/
t.me/sashakots/17339 Image
NKR has punished a second list today of soldiers who were killed in the fighting with 45 more names, bringing the total announced today to 96 and more than 525 since the beginning of the fighting. 967/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
The two lists published today by NKR with the names of 96 soldiers killed in the fighting. I'm not sure when all of these soldiers were killed, possibly during the day and night prior to the ceasefire, but it is the largest one day death total announced by NKR. 968/ ImageImage
As others have mentioned, this is possibly a reflection of both sides being able to recover bodies as part of the ceasefire. Of course, there are likely bodies that haven't been recovered yet and likely aren't being recorded on the casualty list yet either. 969/
970/
From the Armenian MoD’s Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 971/
t.me/reartsakheng/5… ImageImageImage
Video of the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers somewhere in the mountains of Nagorno-Karabakh. 972/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Infographic from Clash Report, which is clearly associated with the Turkish MoD, of Armenia/NKR’s losses from UCAVs and loitering munitions. Still no evidence of that Tor AD system though. 973/
t.me/ClashReport/769 Image
Very graphic video showing Azerbaijani soldiers with the bodies of more than 15 Armenian soldiers. 974/
t.me/military_az/752
A man in Stepanakert hanging up his laundry next to the tail section of a Smerch rocket. 975/
shutterstock.com/es/editorial/i… ImageImage
976/
977/
Armenia published another list of names of Azerbaijani soldiers they said have died and were able to ID, bringing the # to 517. They said they’re working on another 160 names. 978/
t.me/bagramyan26/20… Image
979/
Video of an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition that crashed in Iran near the city of Parsabad. 980/
t.me/ImpNavigator/6…
Photos of the Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition that crashed in Iran. 981/
t.me/ImpNavigator/6… ImageImageImage
Another video of that Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition that crashed in Iran. Generally not a great idea to get that close to UXO. 982/
t.me/faceofwar/10070
Warning: graphic video. Footage of an Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV strikes on a group of Armenian/NKR soldiers. Notably, the Azerbaijani MoD didn’t post this video themselves, but it instead was leaked through social media (and didn’t blur the HUD info). 983/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Another TB2 UCAV video showing a strike on an Armenian patrol from last night, reportedly near the town of Askeran. 984/
t.me/military_az/758
NKR published the names of another 17 Armenian/NKR soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 542. 985/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
Drone footage of the damaged Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha/Shushi. 986/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
The large hole in the roof of the cathedral in Shushi/Shusha. 987/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD claims that last night it destroyed:
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 Tor-M2KM air defense system
-1 ZSU-23-4 Shilka SPAAG
-2 BMP-2 IFV
-3 2A36 Giatsint-B artillery pieces
-1 KS-19 anti-aircraft gun
-1 D-20 howitzer
-3 UAVs
988/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en… Image
Video of Armenian/NKR strikes on a town in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan. 989/
t.me/AzeSputnik/4981
The total losses of the Azerbaijani military according to Armenia. 990/
t.me/artsrun_offici… Image
Another video from the Armenian side of the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers somewhere in the mountains. 991/
t.me/military_arm/1…
NKR defense forces posted a video of a strike on an Azerbaijani tank, presumably from an ATGM. 992/
t.me/military_arm/1…
Azerbaijan released a video from Hadrut where intense fighting has occurred over the past few days. Interestingly, they leaked it through social media accounts instead of from official MoD accounts. 993/
t.me/military_az/760
Graphic video of the bodies of several Armenian/NKR soldiers in defensive positions in the Jabrayil region. 994/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
995/
996/
997/
Longer video from the Azerbaijani MoD from the surroundings of Hadrut. Still not 100% clear who controls the town (and I haven't seen videos from the Russian correspondents from the town yet today either). 998/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman shared a number of photos purportedly of Azerbaijani munitions used against Armenia, but these appear to be from a 9M33M3-series missile from an Osa air defense system, which could have been launched by Armenian forces. 999/
ImageImageImage
Photos of other munitions reportedly launched by Azerbaijan against Armenia. 1000/
investigative.am/en/news/view/v… ImageImageImageImage
Video purportedly of another Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on Armenian/NKR soldiers. 1001/
t.me/the_tagiev/1108
Aftermath of Armenian/NKR shelling on towns in the Terter and Aghdam regions of Azerbaijan from RIA Novosti. 1002/
t.me/rian_ru/59215
Armenia says that it has ID’d 619 Azerbaijani soldiers who have been killed thus far in the fighting with another 60 names to be added soon. They say that the actual total is 4,900 including Syrian mercenaries. 1003/
t.me/KarabakhRecord… Image
1004/
Video from an Armenian/NKR post in the mountains where fighting is occurring and snow is already on the ground. 1005/
NKR soldiers with an Igla-S MANPADS and a heavy machine gun in the mountains. 1006/ ImageImage
Second part of that video of NKR soldiers in the mountains. I cropped the video, but parts of it show bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. Some of the fighting is legitimate mountain warfare under very difficult conditions. 1007/
1008/
Screenshots from the NKR positions in the mountains. 1009/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots from NKR positions in the mountains. 1010/ ImageImageImageImage
1011/
1012/
1013/
1014/
The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that "today was one of the tensest days of fighting since the war broke out" particularly in the north. 1015/ Image
1016/
The Azerbaijani MoD said that it destroyed Armenian tactical ballistic missiles (either Iskander, Tochka, or Elbrus) at 1 a.m. that were planning on firing on Azerbaijan. 1017/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, confirmed that Azerbaijan struck Armenian military equipment in Armenia proper near Qaravachar though she denied that they were preparing to fire on Azerbaijan. 1018/
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
mod.gov.az/en/news/legiti… ImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that it destroyed another Armenian tactical ballistic missile system at 8:36 a.m. as well.
1019/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/anothe… Image
Azerbaijan also claimed that last night it destroyed:
-5 T-72 tanks
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 Osa-AKM air defense system
-1 BMP-2 IFV
-1 KS-19 anti-aircraft gun
-2 D-30 howitzers
-Several vehicles
1020/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/severa… Image
1021/
The Washington Post reports that earlier this month a refrigerated truck arrived at the Turkish-Syrian border with the bodies of 52 Syrian men who were killed in Nagorno-Karabakh. 1022/
washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e… Image
Two other things from WaPo's reporting: 1) many of the mercenaries being sent to Nagorno-Karabakh aren't hardened fighters 2) they're being sent to the front immediately with little, if any, training. 1023/
washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e… ImageImage
So the Azerbaijani MoD specifies that it struck a Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile system on October 12, and the three struck this morning were 9K72 Elbrus Scud-B tactical ballistic missiles. 1024/
ImageImageImage
I wonder if the Syrian mercenaries are primarily being sent to fight in northern NK which is more mountainous. We've seen Azerbaijani SOF in the south playing a key role in Azerbaijan's success there. Maybe the Syrians are being used to tie down Armenian forces elsewhere? 1025/ Image
NKR published a video of what they claim is an Azerbaijani sabotage group being repelled in SE Nagorno-Karabakh. Looks like mortar and artillery fire. 1026/
t.me/KarabakhRecord…
Video from the northern front of Nagorno-Karabakh NW of Talish from where ~60 Azerbaijani soldiers were ambushed and killed by NKR forces (I cut the video short to not show the bodies). I believe this ambush happened at least 10 days ago. 1027/
The NKR soldier in the video confirms that Azerbaijan seized his unit's command point on Mt. Arega, and said that they took 2 POWs. He said they ambushed the Azerbaijani unit from a distance of 8-10 meters on top of the small hill next to the trail. 1028/
If what this soldier says is true, it would be an indication of a lack of tactical proficiency in this Azerbaijani unit. Moving as a platoon, instead of by squad or fire team, and with minimal dispersion along a trail (a likely ambush site). 1029/
Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov called Azerbaijan's strike on Armenia today a "direct challenge to Russia" and questioned the purpose of the CSTO "Armenia, which is our ally, is it under our protection or not?" 1030/
ru.armeniasputnik.am/politics/20201…
BMPD believes the vehicles shown in the video from Azerbaijan are actually Armenian WM-80 MLRS launchers purchased from China. 1031/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4348 ImageImageImage
NKR published the names of another 23 NKR/Armenian soldiers who have been killed in the fighting, bringing the death total to at least 555. 1032/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
We haven’t seen as many videos of the fighting released by Armenia or Azerbaijan over the past couple of days, but clearly that isn’t a reflection that the fighting has slowed down. 1033/ Image
1034/
1035/
Video from Sputnik Armenia of a hospital that was allegedly struck by Azerbaijan. 1036/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Photos from the hospital in Martakert that was reportedly struck by two Azerbaijani rockets. 1037/
t.me/KarabakhRecord… ImageImageImageImage
@KofmanMichael and @nersmail1 have a very good overview of the fighting thus far in NK. Here is an interesting question: are the Russian Ground Forces' maneuver brigades and divisions better structured for modern warfare than Western equivalents?
warontherocks.com/2020/10/the-se… Image
One thing I would add about this point re: TB2 strikes≠ territorial gains. Destroying much of Armenia's tank/MLRS fleet won't guarantee success in assaulting Armenian defensive positions but it will likely prevent an Armenian strategic or operational counteroffensive. 1039/ Image
Not only has NKR/Armenia lost much of its armor and fires, but, as long as TB2 can sit overhead with impunity, Armenian forces can't mass sufficient forces to conduct anything but a small counterattack. Its forces would be vulnerable not only past the LOD but in an assembly area.
Video of Armenian/NKR artillery or mortar strikes on Azerbaijani troops. 1041/
The Azerbajani MoD claims it seized the villages of Garadaghli, Khatunbulag, and Garakollu in the Fuzuli district, as well as the villages of Bulutan, Malikjanli, Kamartuk, Taka, and Taghaser in the Khojavand district. 1042/
mod.gov.az/en/news/presid… Image
1043/
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of its soldiers in the town of Jabrayil. The first half of the video is a replay of earlier footage. 1044/
mod.gov.az/en/news/libera…
Two part video from Bars Media from Hadrut. 1045/
Second part of that video from Hadrut. 1046/
Azerbaijan posted a photo of an Armenian UAV they said was shot down in the Fizuli region of the front. 1047/
mod.gov.az/en/news/anothe… Image
A two-part video from Bars Media of an NKR defensive position in the north. Notably, many of the soldiers are quite old. 1048/
Second part of that video at an NKR defensive position in northern Nagorno-Karabakh. 1049/
Notably, the soldiers are a mix of locals and others from Armenia proper, and and being a soldier isn't their main job. 1050/ ImageImageImage
Sounds about right. 1051/ Image
As @666_mancer points out, the blades look like they're from a Spike NLOS ATGM (not sure about the motor), and look similar to a Spike NLOS missile Armenia recovered from the fighting in July (Armenia doesn't have any Spike missiles). 1052/
ImageImageImage
1053/
Very good terrain for an L-shaped ambush. According to the NKR soldiers in the video, an Azerbaijani platoon (+) size force was destroyed here. 1054/ Image
1055/
1056/
Semyon Pegov posted a photo allegedly of another aircraft shot down by Armenia (could be old). Looks like the wreckage of an An-2. 1057/
t.me/wargonzo/3754 Image
A couple of disturbing videos were posted today. One appears to show an Armenian/NKR soldier hitting an Azerbaijani soldier in the head with the butt of his rifle and the other of two NKR soldiers who were captured in Hadrut being executed. 1058/
Sadly, this isn't a surprising development. Soldiers from both sides have posted a number of videos with the bodies of soldiers from the other side, sometimes abusing the bodies. It doesn't appear that leaders from either side have tried to stop this. 1059/
The Azerbaijani MoD denies that these are real (they look real to me). 1060/
The Azerbaijani MoD claims that last night they destroyed:
-2 T-72 tanks
-1 Tor-M2KM air defense system
-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-A D-20, D-30, and D-1 howitzer
-Several UAVs and vehicles
1061/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en… Image
Azerbaijan has now claimed that they have destroyed 3 Tor-M2KM systems, but they haven't released any evidence thus far. Tor-M2KM is Armenia's best short range air defense system, and it is certainly capable of shooting down TB2 UCAVs and other UAVs. 1062/
Turkish arms exports to Azerbaijan jumped from $20.7 million in the first 9 months of 2019 to $123 in the first 9 months of 2020, with $77.1 million last month alone. Presumably, this was when the TB2 UCAVs arrived. 1063/
reuters.com/article/us-arm… ImageImage
Video from the ground of one of the Armenian 36D6 19Zh6 Tin Shield Radars that was struck by a Harop loitering munition. We previously saw the footage from the munition. 1064/
t.me/new_militaryco…
It appears the above video is from the same strike as from this loitering munition footage published on October 10th. 1065/
One thing to point out about this is that Azerbaijan signed a series of big contracts with Russia for ~$5 billion between 2008-2011. Most of those deliveries happened more than 4 years ago, and Baku has already received much of the arms that they wanted from Russia. 1066/ Image
Azerbaijan has been using these Russian arms in the current fighting, but arguably the UAVs and munitions from Israel and Turkey have played a bigger role. So Baku will likely continue to look more to Israel, Turkey, and other countries for arms imports rather than Russia. 1067/
Regarding the video of the execution of two NKR soldiers released today. 1068/ Image
Video of NKR artillery strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers in the open and in defensive lines from yesterday. Some of this footage was previously released. 1069/
1070/
Another video published by the NKR of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani troops. 1071/
Another NKR video showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers. This video really shows the value of precision-guided munitions. Unguided artillery and mortar rounds are still effective, but you often won't have first round effects. 1072/
1073/
Video of an NKR soldier with several bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. 1074/
t.me/babahkarabah/1…
Video from a village in the Terter region of Azerbaijan that reportedly came under fire from Armenian/NKR forces. 1075/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5036
Another video from today of an alleged Armenian/NKR strike on a cemetery in the Terter region of Azerbaijan. 1076/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5059
The NKR announced the names of another 49 names of Armenian/NKR soldiers who have been killed in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 604. 1077/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
Screenshots from a video published by an Azerbaijani Telegram channel that shows a damaged KAMAZ truck with several bodies of Armenian/NKR soldiers. 1078/
t.me/the_tagiev/1322 ImageImageImageImage
1079/
1080/
I won't link to the photos, but they were posted by a Russian PMC-linked account (I haven't seen them posted by Azerbaijani accounts). I'm not sure about when they were taken, but there was a case in 2016 of an Armenian soldier who was beheaded. 1081/
azatutyun.am/a/27665737.html
This statement is regarding the two NKR soldiers who were executed on a video that was released earlier today. 1082/
1083/
I suspect we'd see a new offensive in Idlib if Turkey went ahead with this. 1084/
1085/
1086/
Clash Report claims that Azerbaijan shot down an Armenian X-55 UAV. 1087/
t.me/ClashReport/775 Image
Incredibly bleak report from the WSJ about the Syrians going to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh on behalf of Azerbaijan. 1088/
wsj.com/articles/turki… ImageImageImageImage
1089/
1090/
Video of Azerbaijani forces in Hadrut. 1091/
t.me/the_tagiev/1338
1092/
Good point by Ruslan Pukhov. 1093/
defensenews.com/global/europe/… Image
Bellingcat took a look at the alleged execution of the two Armenian soldiers in Hadrut. They conclude that the videos are likely genuine and show that the two Armenian soldiers detained in the first video were likely executed in the second. 1094/
bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-w… Image
1095/
1096/
Photo confirms that Azerbaijan destroyed an Armenian 9K72 Elbrus tactical ballistic missile launcher and a UKS-400В-131 compressor station two nights ago. 1097/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImage
Video released from an Azerbaijani Telegram channel taken from the village of Mataghis. 1098/
t.me/military_az/804
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that last night it destroyed:
-2 T-72 tanks,
-1 BM-21 Grad MLRS,
-5 D-30 howitzer,
-2 ZSU-23-4 Shilka SPAAG,
-8 vehicles
The "situation in the Aghdere-Aghdam and Fizuli-Hadrut directions of the front remained tense"
1099/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-si… Image
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers, Ural-4320 trucks, and BMP-2 in southern Nagorno-Karabakh. They drive past 3 damaged Armenian tanks and what was likely an NKR defensive line. I cut the video short before images of bodies. 1100/
t.me/military_az/805
Screenshots of the three damaged Armenian/NKR tanks. 1101/ ImageImageImageImage
More screenshots from the video. 1102/ ImageImage
NKR published the names of another 29 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 633 since the fighting began. 1103/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
Clash Report claims Azerbaijan destroyed another Armenian S-300 air defense system (presumably just part of it). 1104/
t.me/ClashReport/777 Image
Another bridge between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia struck by Azerbaijan, though it appears that neither was actually knocked out. 10m CEP isn't always good enough. 1105/
ImageImage
1106/
The Russian PMC-linked RSOTM Telegram account posted the alleged identities of two Azerbaijani servicemen in the photo they published yesterday with a decapitated head. They say they are with the Azerbaijani 701st Motorized Rifle Brigade. 1107/ Image
Video from NKR showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers in a defensive line. 1108/
Video published by the Armenian MoD showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions. Not clear when this footage was shot. 1109/
Video of damage in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan from NKR/Armenian shelling. 1110/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5105
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD of its forces in villages in the Khojavend region. 1111/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
The Azerbaijani MoD published photos of what it claims are the remains of an Armenian tactical ballistic missile that landed in the Ordubad region of Azerbaijan. 1112/
mod.gov.az/en/news/armeni… ImageImageImageImage
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that Azerbaijan has captured the villages of Khirmanjig, Aghbulag, and Akhullu in the Khojavand district. 1113/
mod.gov.az/en/news/presid… Image
Graphic published by Armenia that shows the alleged daily death total for Azerbaijani forces. The numbers are inflated but it gives an interesting look at when the fighting was at its heaviest, including an uptick over the past two days. 1114/
t.me/KarabakhRecord… Image
Stepanakert is under fire. 1115/
t.me/tass_agency/24… Image
Claims from the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1116/ Image
Photos of destroyed Armenian equipment. 1117/
t.me/military_az/826 ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD posted another video from Hadrut. 1118/
mod.gov.az/en/news/new-vi…
1119/
Another report on the Syrians fighting on behalf of Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabkah. 1120/
nybooks.com/daily/2020/10/… ImageImage
Kommersant reports that the current fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh was planned months ahead of time and driven by Turkey with promises of military, political, and technical support to Azerbaijan. 1121/
kommersant.ru/doc/4537733#id…
Kommersant reports that 600 Turkish servicemen are in Azerbaijan:
-200-man BTG
-50 instructors in Nakhchivan
-90 advisors in Baku
-120 flight personnel at the Gabala Airbase
-20 UAV operators at Dollyar Airbase
-50 instructors at Yevlakh Airport
-50 with the 4th Army Corps
1122/ Image
Their equipment includes 18 IFVs, one MLRS, 10 vehicles and up to 34 aircraft including 6 planes (F-16?), 8 helicopters, up to 20 UAVs. Kommersant reports that Turkish military transport flights to Azerbaijan (primarily through Georgia) increased sharply in Sep-Oct. 1123/ Image
These flights include a C-130 flight with troops and munitions on Sep 3, CN-235 on Sep 18, and A400M on Sep 25. On Sep 28-30, the Turkish Land Forces commander Ümit Dündar and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar were in Azerbaijan allegedly in command of the operation in Karabakh. 1124/
Further flights by Turkish or Azerbaijani aircraft flew back and forth on Sep 30, Oct 1, 3, 7, 9, and has sought permission for further flights through Georgia. 1125/
Kommersant reports that up to 1.3k Syrians and at least 150 Libyan fighters arrived in NK during the 1st week of October. The Libyans were sent to Jabrayil, whereas the Syrians were mainly sent to Terter. Turkey's National Intelligence Organization is managing the program. 1126/ Image
Kommersant reports that the Turkish SADAT PMC is conducting the recruiting in Syria. Syrians are reportedly offered $2k a month to fight in NK and told they will be there for 3-6 months. Any documents and cell phones are taken away before arriving in Azerbaijan. 1127/
The first group of Syrians were sent to Azerbaijan on Sep 22, and they reportedly receive a two-week training program beforehand from Turkish instructors. Another group of 1.5k Syrian fighters has been trained and is ready to be sent to NK if necessary. 1128/
1129/
1130/
There was also an Azerbaijani strike on the village of Shosh tonight that reportedly killed one. 1131/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Another senseless night with civilian casualties. 1132/
1133/
Video of the aftermath of another Armenian/NKR strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 1134/
t.me/the_tagiev/1451
The Armenian MoD claimed it shot down two UAVs in Armenian airspace. 1135/
t.me/reartsakheng/7… Image
1136/
Location of previous strikes on Ganja. 1137/
Armenia released two more lists of names bringing the total number of names of Azerbaijani soldiers who have died in the fighting they say they have ID’d to 819. 1138/
t.me/KarabakhRecord… ImageImage
Air siren over Stepanakert. 1139/
Another video from Ganja. 1140/
Reportedly, video of the strike on Ganja. 1141/
t.me/militarymaps/1…
Photos of the destruction in Ganja tonight. 1142/
t.me/the_tagiev/1465 ImageImageImageImage
Hikmet Hajiyev, the Assistant of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Head of Foreign Policy Affairs for the Presidential Administration, claims that an 9K72 Elbrus Scub-B tactical ballistic missile was used. 1143/
1144/
Video of rescue crews searching through the rubble for survivors. 1145/
t.me/tvrain/32694
1146/
1147/
Photos of the aftermath of last night’s strike on Ganja. 1148/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5164 ImageImageImageImage
Photo of a Matador MRAP after hitting an IED or mine. The crew was reportedly fine. 1149/
vk.com/military_az?w=… Image
UAV footage of the destruction in Ganja after last night’s strike, allegedly from an Elbrus Scud-B missile. 1150/
t.me/military_az/864
Footage presumably from a Harop loitering munition targeting an Armenian Smerch MLRS 9A52-2 launcher. 1151/
t.me/military_az/867
The Armenian MoD’s spokeswomen, Shushan Stepanyan, published a satellite photo of alleged Azerbaijani military and defense targets in Ganja including an S-125 AD unit, defense industry factories, and the Ganja Airport where Turkish F-16 were located. 1152/
t.me/ShushanStepany… ImageImage
Another video from one of the locations of Armenian/NKR strikes on Ganja from last night. 1153/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5185
1154/
Warning: graphic video. Azerbaijan has begun releasing TB2 UCAV videos again after last night's strikes on Ganja. This clip shows 20 strikes on NKR soldiers, defensive positions, trucks, and howitzers. Some of this footage could be old. 1155/
Normal defensive positions and the underpass of a bridge aren't sufficient against modern UCAVs. 1156/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of the destruction caused by Azerbaijani shelling on Stepanakert. 1157/
t.me/KarabakhRecord…
Photos of the damage in Stepanakert. 1158/
t.me/KarabakhRecord… ImageImageImageImage
ANNA News video of the damage in Stepanakert after last night’s strikes. 1159/
t.me/anna_news/8789
Another Azerbaijani MoD video with 7 TB2 UCAV strikes on NKR/Armenian trucks and troops in cover. The single best thing Armenian/NKR troops can do to avoid these strikes is to not huddle together, even in cover. 1160/
NKR/Armenian troops would be better off sleeping in individual ranger graves with 15 + meters between them. TB2 operators likely wouldn't launch a MAM-L munition against an individual soldier, but they will against a group of soldiers in cover. 1161/ ImageImageImageImage
According to Azerbaijani, this video shows the destruction of an Armenian S-300PS system (hard to tell if they actually destroyed anything). Notably, the TB2 stayed far away, and apparently targeted it with a LORA or other long range munition). 1162/
1163/
One thing to keep in mind with the TB2 is that they have been shown destroying Pantsir, Osa, and Strela-10 short range systems, but longer range Buk or S-300 AD systems have been targeted by loitering munitions, F-16s, or long-range missiles in Idlib and NK. 1164/
Warning: graphic video. Another Azerbaijani MoD TB2 video with strikes on Armenian/NKR troops in defensive positions. 1165/
1166/
This clip shows how a TB2 MAM-L/C munition can adjust its final target location in flight. 1167/
This kind of persistent aerial threat puts a premium on small unit leadership. Troops simply can't bunch together like this, even in trenches. 1168/ ImageImageImageImage
1169/
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD of TB2 UCAV strikes, presumably from last night. Soldiers have a habit of bunching together more at night than during the day, but as you can see, this just presents a larger thermal signature. 1170/
Screenshots of the NKR/Armenian soldiers at night. 1171/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of Azerbaijani BM-21 Grad MLRS, D-30 122mm howitzers, and Msta-S 152mm self-propelled howitzers. 1172/
TB2 video showing MLRS or missile strikes on what Azerbaijan claim is an Armenian/NKR fuel and ammunition depot. 1173/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claimed that it was actually a military hospital. 1174/
1175/
1176/
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that yesterday and last night it destroyed/damaged:
-large number of military personnel
-7 T-72 tanks
-2 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-8 D-30 howitzers
-1 D-20 howitzer
-10 trucks with ammunition
-7 other vehicles
1177/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-tr… Image
One thing to point out is that Armenian/NKR soldiers, many of whom are conscripts or reservists, have faced a persistent and terrifying day/night aerial threat for 3 weeks, yet they aren't running away. Toughness and the will to fight are critical intangible factors of warfare.
Great news. Hopefully, this one holds. 1179/
A video from the Azerbaijani MoD from earlier today showing TB2 strikes on 9 BM-21 Grad MLRS and a final target (hard to tell what it was). Notably, the NKR/Armenian crews tried to provide camouflage on some of the BM-21. 1180/
From the leader of Nagorno-Karabakh. 1181/
Screenshots of Armenian/NKR BM-21 Grad MLRS, some of which are camouflaged. 1182/ ImageImageImageImage
Another TB2 videos showing strikes on what appears to be 2 MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons, 3 BMP-2, Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR, 3 T-72 tanks, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, and 1 ZSU-23-4 Shilka. 1183/
Screenshots of an MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons, Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR, a T-72 tank, and a ZSU-23-4 Shilka (I think). 1184/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD claims is has disabled an S-125 AD system, destroyed a tactical UAV, Su-25, and three Tor-M2KM AD systems over the past two days. 1185/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD… ImageImageImageImage
1186/
1187/
1188/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan says that the ceasefire is being broken. 1189/
1190/
1191/
The Azerbaijani MoD has accused Armenia of violating the ceasefire as well. 1192/
mod.gov.az/en/news/armeni… Image
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that yesterday its forces destroyed:
- 2 S-300 missile guidance stations
-5 T-72 tanks
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-2 Smerch MLRS
-1 D-20 howitzer
-1 KS-19 anti-aircraft gun
-6 other vehicles
1193/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD of what they claim are Armenian SOF retreating in the face of Azerbaijani tanks and BMP-2. Looks like they launched two ATGMs at the beginning of the video. 1194/
1195/
1196/
1197/
1198/
The Azerbaijani MoD published a video of arms and equipment they seized from Armenia/NKR. The first part shows an MT-LB with an M55 Zastava; D-20 howitzer; a variety of small arms; NSV HMG; and 9M111 Fagot, 9M113 Konkurs, and 9M115 Metis ATGMs. 1199/
Second part of that video with several Ural and KAMAZ trucks; 1 D-20, 2 D-30, and 3 D-1 howitzers; several T-72A/AV/B tanks; a BMP-1; and another MT-LB with an S-60 57mm anti-aircraft gun. 1200/
1201/
1202/
1203/
I count 4 D-1, 1 D-20, and 2 D-30 howitzers. 1204/ ImageImageImageImage
MT-LBs with S-60 57mm and M55 Zastava 20mm anti-aircraft cannons. 1205/ ImageImage
At least 5 T-72A/AV/B tanks. 1206/ ImageImageImageImage
NKR released a new list with the names of another 40 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 673.
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
1208/
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD from a captured Armenian/NKR ammo depot with several Ural and KAMAZ trucks, small arms, AGS-17, RPG-7 + rounds, ATGM launchers, Kord HMG, tank main gun rounds, etc. 1209/
Zastava M93 Black Arrow 12.7mm sniper rifle. 1210/ Image
1211/
Two-part video of Azerbaijani soldiers in Fizuli city. 1212/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-az…
Screenshot of a Shturm-S ATGM carrier. 1213/ Image
Second part of that video of Azerbaijani soldiers in Fizuli. 1214/
At the end of the video you can see a group of soldiers who appear to be Azerbaijani SOF. One of the big questions going forward is how many casualties they have suffered, as they will likely be needed for any future assaults in more mountainous terrain. 1215/ ImageImage
The Armenian MoD released a video showing an ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani Plasan Sand Cat vehicle. 1216/
The video also shows an NKR/Armenian soldier firing an RPG or RPO at a target. 1217/
The beginning of the video shows something on fire. Hard to tell what it is. 1218/
1219/
Another TB2 UCAV video though not released by the Az MoD showing strikes on 6 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 5 T-72 tanks, 1 ZSU-23-4 Shilka, 1 BMP, 5 trucks, 1 towed howitzer, 1 MT-LB with AA gun, 1 BTR, and 2 other targets. Not sure if this is old footage. 1220/
t.me/orduaz/692
Not sure what the targets were in the first two screenshots. The 3rd and 4th screenshots show a T-72 tank and ZSU-23-4 Shilka. 1221/ ImageImageImageImage
1222/
NKR released footage of what they claim are Azerbaijani soldiers launching an offensive early this morning in violation of the ceasefire. 1223/
Screenshots from a video posted by an Azerbaijani YouTube page that shows 3-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS and several bodies of Armenian/NKR soldiers. 1224/
ImageImageImageImage
Video of an NKR D-30 howitzer battery near Hadrut that was reportedly targeted on Oct 16. 1225/
t.me/new_militaryco…
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman:
1226/
The second list published today by NKR with 37 names of soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to at least 710. 1227/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
1228/
Video reportedly of Iranians shouting support to Azerbaijani soldiers on the other side of the Aras River. 1229/
t.me/military_az/918
Photos of Iranians watching the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan from across the border. 1230/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
More photos of Iranians watching the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 1231/
t.me/new_militaryco… ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots from a video from an Azerbaijani defense Telegram channel that shows at least 2 D-20 howitzers and several bodies. 1232/
t.me/military_az/886 ImageImageImageImage
One of those presumed unmanned An-2 aircraft apparently crashed in Sabirabad. 1233/
t.me/military_arm/2…
Video reportedly of an Armenian or Azerbaijani UAV that flew over Iranian airspace and was shot down over Aslan Duz. 1234/
t.me/ImpNavigator/6…
Claims from the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1235/ Image
NKR published a video showing artillery strikes on an Azerbaijani convoy. The second half of the video has the same footage from another video released earlier today. 1236/
1237/
1238/
1239/
The ANNA News crew made a video from the military hospital in Martakert that was struck by Azerbaijan a few days ago. Azerbaijan posted a video of the strike and claimed it was a fuel and ammo depot. 1240/
1241/
PBS also covered the military hospital in Martakert that was struck by Azerbaijani shelling. 1242/
Image of that man in Stepanakert taking his laundry from a drying rack a few meters from a Smerch MLRS rocket. 1243/
Image
And a look at how people are crossing the river after the main bridge was targeted by Azerbaijan. 1244/
Screenshots of the back up bridge and the primary bridge that was targeted by Azerbaijan. 1245/
ImageImageImageImage
1246/
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that 13 villages in Jabrayil have been captured, and the Az MoD said they destroyed another:
-2 T-72 tanks
-2 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 D-30 and 1 D-20 howitzers
-11 vehicles
1247/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… ImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan also said that the ceasefire was violated overnight. 1248/ Image
The Armenian MoD's Shushan Stepanyan claimed that they destroyed 7 tanks, including a T-90S, and 5 armored personnel carriers yesterday. 1249/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Video from the Armenian MoD of artillery/MLRS strikes on Azerbaijani forces. 1250/
NKR officials released a list with another 19 names of soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to at least 729 since the fighting began. 1251/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
The latest claims from the Armenian MoD of Azerbaijan’s losses. We haven’t seen evidence to support much of these claims. 1252/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Rob Lee

Rob Lee Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
May 3
When we evaluate how weapons perform, it is important to note the conditions in which they operate. Abrams were committed into the fight this winter at a time when Ukraine had a lack of infantry as well as mines, ATGMs, air defense, and artillery ammunition. This may seem bizarre from the outside, but Ukraine often employs tanks in a manner to compensate for a lack of infantry or ammunition for other systems because those are the conditions they face.
If you don't have enough artillery or ATGM ammunition, you may bring up a tank or Bradley to engage Russian armor or infantry instead. This could involve placing an Abrams or Bradley at greater risk than you would like, but these are the organic assets that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had, and they come with a different supply of ammunition.
All weapons have vulnerabilities, and you mitigate those vulnerabilities through combined arms. When several of those arms are weaker (e.g. infantry, artillery, air defense), because of attrition or a lack of ammunition, others will be more vulnerable as well.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 26
Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.
Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 21
Russian sources are saying that Ukraine is dropping caltrops on roads to damage their vehicles' wheels. When the vehicles stop, they are then targeted by artillery or FPVs.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

Image
Image
Video from Madyar showing them being dropped from UAVs. 2/
t.me/robert_magyar/…
From the beginning of the full-scale invasion. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 18
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.

t.me/milinfolive/12…
t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar area. 2/



t.me/vdd98/3092
t.me/vdd98/3165
t.me/vdd98/3131
t.me/vdd98/3103
Videos from the past two weeks showing reported Russian FAB-250 and FAB-1500 UMPK, UK RBP Grom, and artillery or S-8 strikes in the Chasiv Yar area. 3/





t.me/vdd98/3089
t.me/vdd98/3170
t.me/vdd98/3006
t.me/vdd98/3075
t.me/vdd98/3062
t.me/vdd98/3053
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 30
Both Russian UGVs were struck by FPVs from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade.
t.me/brygada47/613

2/
3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 18
This was an interesting article about how Ukraine reopened grain exports by putting Russian ports at risk, particularly given Ukraine's current campaign targeting Russian oil refineries.
2/
3/
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(