When Bakiyev asked RF/CSTO to intervene to nip 2010 color rev against him in 2010, Putin ignored. Hwvr, when Lukashenko made a similar plea, P promised “comprehensive security assistance” according to L. If L’s claim true, then why P’d intervene in RB in 2020, but not KR in 2010?
I have tried answer the question of what necessary and sufficient conditions, under which Putin's Russia intervenes militarily, are here themoscowtimes.com/2018/04/25/why… and here russiamatters.org/analysis/when-…
Condition 1 (so far absent) a new threat to vital RF national interests that, in Putin’s view, cant be dealt with in any other way short of mil. intervention. It’d materialize, however, if L is not just replaced, but replaced by leader determined to pivot Belarus toward West.
Condition 2: Putin'd have to be sure that a military intervention will not only achieve intended purpose, but do so in ways, in which costs won't exceed benefits.
My short take on whether and when Putin'd send troops for a full-fledged military intervention in Belarus saradzhyan.wordpress.com/2020/08/16/wil…
