simon saradzhyan Profile picture
Artsakhtsi; worked as journo/researcher in FSU for 15y; since'08 at Harvard; but also worked at Control Risks;founder of @russia_matters; in personal capacity.
Feb 6, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
A must read: One of Russia's most thoughtful experts on nuclear arms, Alexey Arbatov, has weighed in on scenarios for use of such arms and red lines, criticizing 'ignorant' RF pundits for improvising on such deadly serious issues. My rough translation of key points below: Link to the full text of Arbatov's interview to AiF in Russian language russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-…
Feb 4, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
NYT: "In the call with Milley last October, Gerasimov outlined a use of nuclear weapons consistent with Washington's understanding of Russia's nuclear doctrine." This is also consistent with the latest public statement on nukes by Gerasimov I could find. As far as I can recall, Gerasimov last publicly commented on use of nukes in June 2021. In doing so stuck to the strategic-document script.
Oct 17, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
Kommersant's GRU sources detail Turkey's allegedly direct involvement in planning and executing Azerbaijan's attack on Karabakh, including MoD chief Akar exercising general command of the combat operations against Karabakh kommersant.ru/doc/4537733#id… If confirmed, Turkish defense minister Akar's decision to personally exercising general command of Azerbaijan's offensives against Karabakh, would be unprecedented, at least in 21st century.
Aug 15, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
When Bakiyev asked RF/CSTO to intervene to nip 2010 color rev against him in 2010, Putin ignored. Hwvr, when Lukashenko made a similar plea, P promised “comprehensive security assistance” according to L. If L’s claim true, then why P’d intervene in RB in 2020, but not KR in 2010? I have tried answer the question of what necessary and sufficient conditions, under which Putin's Russia intervenes militarily, are here themoscowtimes.com/2018/04/25/why… and here russiamatters.org/analysis/when-…