Absolutely incredible footage of #LoyaltonFire#pyrovortex ("Fire Tornado") earlier today. Pretty sure this validates @NWSReno's Tornado Warning--which is, I believe, the first ever issued by @NWS specifically for a wildfire-generated pyroconvective event. #CAwx#CAfire#NVwx
To be clear: this is *not* first documented instance of a large-scale fire vortex. Devastating #CarrFire in 2018 near Redding, CA produced one of the strongest such events in recent memory, outside of a couple of previous events during Australian firestorms. (1/3) #CAwx#CAfire
Such events are not a new phenomenon--they have probably occurred during particularly intense wildfires under the right atmospheric conditions since...well, time immemorial. But I suspect these recent events have been more noticeable for two key reasons: (2/3) #CAfire
1) We're formally documenting more large-scale fire vortices in smartphone camera era simply because there are more eyewitnesses, & 2) wildfire burning conditions across West have been particularly intense in recent years, increasing likelihood of extreme/exotic fire behavior.
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There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods--but that's simply not true. This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hrs prior. Flood Watch mid PM, "heads up" outlook late PM, flash flood warnings ~1am.
As always, this is not to blame the victims! Quite the opposite; this truly was a sudden & massive event and occurred at worst possible time (middle of the night). But problem, once again, was not a bad weather prediction: it was one of "last mile" forecast/warning dissemination.
I am not aware of the details surrounding staffing levels at the local NWS offices involved, nor how that might have played into timing/sequence of warnings involved. But I do know that locations that flooded catastrophically had at least 1-2+ hours of direct warning from NWS.
Some perspective on recent warmth over past month in California. Many folks, most of whom live within ~20 miles of the coast, have been asking: where's all this hot weather I keep hearing about? Well...the short answer is inland & across hills/mountains. [Thread] #CAwx #CAfire
In fact, the past ~30 days have actually been near record-warm (yes, yet again!) across a substantial portion of the foothills & higher mountains ringing Central Valley, plus the Imperial Valley (which is a very hot place to begin with!) However... #CAwx #CAfire
However, along the coast (and inland up to 20 miles or so, a bit farther near gaps in coastal mountains through which marine influence spills), temperatures have NOT been very warm, and in some cases have even been COOLER than the (recent warmer climate) average! #CAwx #CAfire
Amer. Meteorological Soc. (@ametsoc) just issued a (fully justified) dire statement regarding rapidly accelerating & potentially disastrous efforts to decimate weather & climate enterprise in U.S. If implemented, this would cost many lives & cause major/ long-term economic harm.
@ametsoc "In effect, the scientific backbone and workforce needed to keep weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective will be drastically undercut, with unknown — yet almost certainly disastrous — consequences for public safety and economic health."
@ametsoc "If you believe in the importance of NOAA research for maintaining and improving NWS forecasts and services to the nation then *THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW*. Reach out to your elected representatives and share your concerns."
The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within #NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service (#NWS), is profoundly alarming.
1/11
It appears that staff fired today include meteorologists, data scientists responsible for maintaining weather predictive models, and technicians responsible for maintaining the nation’s weather instrumentation network (among many others).
2/11
The U.S. NWS is a truly world-class meteorological predictive service, perhaps singularly so. Its cost of operation is only ~$3-4/yr per taxpayer—equivalent to a single cup of coffee—and yields a truly remarkable return on investment (at least 10 to 1, and perhaps 100 to 1).
3/11
A period of very warm mid-winter conditions appear likely for much of California and portions of the interior West in late Feb. A strong ridge will form during this period, with large-scale subsidence & warm air advection allowing for a genuine winter "heat wave" next week. #CAwx
Temps in 80s will be widespread in SoCal, & even 90s are possible. T-shirt and shorts weather will also extend into NorCal and beyond (well into 70s), as well as desert SW (where late spring-like temps in 90s are likely). Late Feb records may be broken in some places. #CAwx #AZwx
Looking ahead to the end of winter and spring, the California/U.S. West precipitation dipole (i.e., unusually wet in the north and unusually dry in the south) appears likely to continue. The dryness may expand to include more of CA/West Coast later in spring, too. #CAwx #CAwater
Out today in @GlobalChangeBio is our (brief!) rapid-response piece on the broader context surrounding the January 2025 Southern California wildfires & relevance of wet-to-dry hydroclimate whiplash to fire both locally and globally on a warming Earth. [1/8] onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
@GlobalChangeBio Coastal Southern California experienced an exceptional wet-to-dry "hydroclimate whiplash event" between May/June 2024 (following a second anomalously wet winter) and Dec/Jan 2024/5 (characterized by the driest start to season on record in many parts of the region). [2/8]
@GlobalChangeBio This whiplash event caused a pronounced vegetation accumulation-then-desiccation cycle, adding more fuel for (potential) fires to come then drying it out to record levels for time of year--setting stage for destructive fires when strong winds arrived.[3/8] onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…