Thread by @Thomasctsai

There's a lot of discussion on why testing has gone down the last week (see chart below from @COVID19Tracking)

Some have suggested data issues at the county and state levels. True but not whole story.

Some have suggested demand is decreasing..

THREAD

1/10

So I took a look at Google Trends.

A simple search of "covid testing near me" at the national level is revealing.

Interest decreased dramatically week of 7/5, plateaued x 3 weeks and decreasing again

2/10

What about Texas where COVID tests had dropped dramatically?

Decreasing searching for covid tests over last few weeks.

3/10

Over the last months these states had the highest search interest in COVID testing sites...

1) Georgia
2) Massachusetts
3) Illinois
4) Delaware
5) Florida

4/10

Why is interest in COVID testing decreasing (at least as measured by search trends)?

Perhaps people:

1) Know where to get tested now and no longer need to internet search

2) Frustrated by lag time/difficulty of testing and losing interest in testing

5/10

What's the path forward?

1) Fast and frequent testing--lots of new technologies emerging (saliva-based PCR, POC antigens tests): @ashishkjha @HarvardGH
time.com/5873444/radica…

2) Testing needs to be freely accessible in the community, not just in hospitals/clinics.

6/10

3) Needs to be based on strategy of SURVEILLANCE not just DIAGNOSIS.

4) The unknown breeds fear. Testing makes the unknown, known. Assurance testing can restore confidence to reopen in the low-risk areas, see @Atul_Gawande piece hbr.org/2020/07/a-bett…

7/10

5) Won't know community risk-level (globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-fo…) if you're only testing symptomatic individuals.

Can't contact trace and #TTSI if you don't identify positive cases by testing.

Testing Targets (globalepidemics.org/testing-target…) can help guide the way

8/10

6) Testing is not a panacea. It is part of the broader toolkit of universal masking and physical distancing.

7) Right now we need better load balancing between places with tests and low demand and places with high demand and low supply.

9/10

Congress is in recess and POTUS is at a golf course.

Our scientific community has to lead the way.

Our health care community has to lead the way.

Our business community has to lead the way.

Our education community has to lead the way.

10/10

/fin