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Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
@Sustainable2050
Aug 16, 2020 • 49 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
Big wildfires burning in California heatwave; this one on the border with Nevada.
Same (Loyalton) fire
Loyalton Fire now creating tornado with wind speeds over 60 mph = 96 km/h. Via @HansKiesewetter
Four major wildfires burning in Colorado, already covering hundreds of km², and still largely uncontained. cpr.org/2020/08/15/col…
Over the past 2 days, rare summer lightning storms have sparked numerous new wildfires in N-California.
And in there ongoing heatwave, these quickly spread:
There's now so many wildfires burning in northern California that they were given group names: here's the SCU Lightning complex and the LNU lightning complex fires on Google Maps. ImageImage
The SCU Lightning Complex consists of 20(!) different wildfires with a total area of 140 km² (35,000 acres) with hardly any containment so far.
The LNU Lightning Complex consists of 5 different wildfires, covering 130 km² (32,000 acres) now, uncontained. "Extreme fire behavior" is reported.
And this is what that looks like on the ground.
For (much) more on these developments, follow Daniel Swain, @Weather_West !
Lots of smoke from California's wildfires around San Francisco and Silicon Valley today.
Lightning complex fires exploding in size:
.. and forcing many thousands of Californians to evacuate:
Smoky day in San Francisco.
State of emergency declared in California:
.. and in the state of Washington too: governor.wa.gov/news-media/ins…
Dozens of homes destroyed now by one of the LNU Lightning Complex fires. Vacaville is a city of 100,000.
California severely short on firefighting crews. The state usually relies on large numbers of prisoners, but many of them are unavailable due to a Covid-19 outbreak in a North-Californian prison.
sacbee.com/news/californi…
367 wildfires raging in California now:
Smoke from California's wildfires seen from space.
Northern California's LNU Lightning Complex wildfires grew by 170% in less than 12 hours, to 500 km². Still no containment at all.
Overview:
1,200 km² burnt in 5 days.
Why California's wildfires are so extreme right now. Good explainer, even daring to mention the c-word. Once, halfway. #endclimatesilence
Climate scientist and Californian wildfire expert Daniel @Weather_West is stunned by the size of the current wildfire explosion. 2,400 km² burnt in a week, and situation not under control. Thread.
The #LNULightningComplex fires are now 860 km² (215,000 acres), 0% contained, and 4 civilians died.
The #SCULightningComplex fires are 630 km² (157,000 acres), and only 5% contained.
The #CZULightningComplex fires are 144 km² (48,000 acres), and already required 48,000 people to evacuate.
I don't know if anyone is still keeping track on the total number of people evacuated in N-California now, but it's massive. In a way, these people are climate refugees, although they can of course hope to return home in days or weeks.
California's wildfire crisis is made worse by Covid-19:
- much less prisoners available to fight the fires, since Covid-19 was found in a prison used for their training.
- lungs under threat from wildfires and Covid-19 at the same time
- masks hard to get
One of the root causes of this wildfire explosion: extremely hot, dry air is drying out the vegetation.
One of California's ferocious wildfires seen from a fire monitoring webcam, in its final minutes.
Wildfires burning all over California. @sfchronicle's Fire Map: sfchronicle.com/projects/calif… Image
This is what evacuation can be like:
California's Governor gets it:
More than 3,000km² burnt already in California's ongoing wildfire wave.
560 new wildfires in one week: that's on average more than 3 new wildfires starting per hour, 24/7. Must drive firefighters mad
And more to come? https://t.co/Lb75ugChX1
2,500 km2 burnt just in these 3 Northern California fire complexes. Some modest progress in containing those now. https://t.co/YAzPnJYsdt
Reminder that we’ve seen more of this in 2020: https://t.co/R1ZJDrqe5N
Total area burnt in this week's California wildfires, so far: 3,670 km² (918,000 acres). The LNU and SCU Lightning Complex fires are now #2 and #4 in state history. latimes.com/california/sto… Image
That's an area larger than the Dutch province of Zuid-Holland (Rotterdam, The Hague). Image
Dangerous days ahead for California:
https://t.co/PZRnVKAVAS
An invitation from California’s Governor:
https://t.co/qvajDXBCoP
Good overview of California’s massive, ongoing wildfire crisis. Status Sunday morning. https://t.co/51gPaUlL0U
Massive evacuations for the California wildfires. This is the map for the #SCULightningComplex. Red = order, yellow = warning.
google.com/url?sa=t&sourc… Image

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More from @Sustainable2050

Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jun 8
Nasty climate tipping point in sight, especially for NW-Europe! "Nothing drastic will happen at the moment we cross it - which might be soon - but after that the collapse of the current will be unstoppable." And could lead to rapid regional cooling, not so far away from us.
This is a simplified map of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), bringing heat from the South Atlantic, via the Caribbean to the European side of the North Atlantic. On cooling there, the water sinks to 2-3 km depth and takes the cold to the South. Image
Without the AMOC, the North of Europe - especially Iceland, Scandinavia, and Britain - would be much colder than it now is. Image
Read 43 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
May 16
Agreement between right-far-right Dutch coalition parties published now. Thread with some points on climate and energy. These are the plans, but execution will of course be key. Wilders and his PVV are in full climate denial, like much of the EU's far right.
1/
- Stick to existing agreements, no higher ambitions than EU policy
- No rules for improving energy efficiency of owner-occupied homes. Obligation (from 2026) to install heat pump on replacing gas-fired heating boiler canceled.
- End of EV subsidies in 2025.
2/
- Study how zero-emission zones in cities kan be delayed to create exceptions for entrepreneurs, but creating such zones remains decision of municipality.
- An end to subsidies for Bio-energy with CCS (for negative emissions) as soon as possible.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Mar 16
Starting a week-long business & pleasure trip to Spain, by train!
Hope to be in Barcelona this evening :)
I'll keep you posted in this🧵 Image
The plan for today: Utrecht - Rotterdam - Paris - Barcelona. The tricky part is changing trains in Paris. Theoretically 2 hours should be more than enough to get from Paris-Nord to Gare de Lyon (the rail planner irresponsibly proposed 1 hour), but @Eurostar is often delayed (2/n) Image
Made it to Rotterdam, at least ;)
Bit very early, but hey, why hurry on a Saturday morning? (3/n)
Image
Image
Read 69 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Jan 28
Reading the Dutch "Action agenda congestion low-voltage grids".
The accelating energy transition already brings grid issues here. In the low-voltage distribution grid, the growing number of solar panels (PV), electric cars (EV) and (hybrid) heat pumps ((h)WP) is the challenge. Image
Without measures, a large and growing number of households would experience periods with too high or too low voltage (over- resp. onderspanning) or risk of grid failure. Image
Measures are categorized in:
1) accelerating grid expansion
2) more efficient use of the grid capacity
3) saving energy as much as possible.

1) already gets a lot of attention, and each of the three main DSOs plans to spend around €1 billion/year. Many hurdles though.
Read 16 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Nov 14, 2023
"Transition doesn't make energy cheaper, but to the contrary, significantly more expensive"
Headline in Dutch @Volkskrant yesterday, 9 days before the elections here. "Consumers and companies will pay 92% more for electricity and natural gas by 2030".
Hmm, let's look into that. Image
Firstly, as others have already pointed out too, it's a comparison between 2020 and 2030. In 2020, energy was cheap: Covid reduced demand, and Russia hadn't started its energy war and attack on Ukraine yet.
Compared with 2023, not a lot would remain of the "+92%". Image
Looking into the forecasted price increase 2020-2030 it has three components:
1. Tax (Belasting) +€5 billion. That'd be a political choice, which has little to do with the energy transition.
2. Grid (Netbeheer) +€5 billion. Increase to be expected indeed.
But ... Image
Read 17 tweets
Kees van der Leun  Profile picture
Oct 7, 2023
Today it's Scotland.
#ClimatechangeisWaterchange
Install bigger pumps. Oh, and reduce emissions to zero, asap.
Seems like the right decision.
(West of Glasgow, Scotland)
Read 4 tweets

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