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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
@ArmsControlWonk
Aug 16, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
When you terminate your participation in an agreement only to later realize that you wanted to retain one of your rights as a participant. ImageImage
It’s so simple! The US is a “participating state that terminated its participation.”
Bolton was absolutely clear when the US terminated its participation that the the US was forswearing the use of snapback in UNSCR 2231 because it was "out of the deal." Image
This remains Bolton’s position, out of government.
wsj.com/articles/iran-… Image

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More from @ArmsControlWonk

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Oct 4
I am coming around to the idea that Israel's stocks of Arrow-2 and -3 interceptors are either depleted from April or are being saved for more sensitive targets. A little thread on cost effectiveness at the margins.
The US fired 12 interceptors during this engagement from the destroyers Bulkeley and Cole. Assuming they were SM-3 interceptors, that represents the production run for an entire year, at a cost of about $400 million total. (Each interceptor is about $30 million.) Image
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Arrow-2 and -3 production rates are classified, but Arrow-3 is more expensive than SM-3 at about $50 million per interceptor. You can see lots of Israeli officials talking about the need to reduce the cost of interceptors and increase production rates.
defensedaily.com/israeli-arrow-…
Read 5 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Sep 13
I think the three big takeaways are:
1. That's likely Kangson. It *is* an enrichment plant.
2. The centrifuges are more advanced than the ones Hecker described in 2010.
3. KCNA did not to show the plant staff or the control room. Someone read about STUXNET.
🧵
As @ColinZwirko reported, the @JamesMartinCNS OSINT team concluded last night that this facility was most likely the presumed uranium enrichment plant at Kangson. I spent the morning quadruple-checking. I think they're right.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Here is the team's reasoning. North Korea released 5 images -- 4 inside the "big" hall and 1 inside the annex that @ColinZwirko first noticed under construction in March of this year.
nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Read 18 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
May 26
Our friends at @planet have a really nice series of images of the "Typhon" missile launchers that the US has temporarily deployed in the Philippines. A couple of observations. Image
The Mid-Range Capability (MRC) or "Typhon" (named after a Greek giant just to please @tomkarako) is a @USArmy missile system capable of launching the ~500 km-range SM-6 and the ~2000 km-range Tomahawk missiles. There is a nice CRS report on the system.
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF…

Image
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@tomkarako @USArmy The deployment of the system to the Philippines is temporary and coincides with a series of US-RP military exercises. US officials, however, have avoided specifying how long "temporary" will be.
usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-…
Image
Read 11 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
May 22
Russia conducted an exercise in which it practiced starting a nuclear war. A short thread.
iz.ru/1699925/2024-0…
We get to see a convoy of Iskander vehicles -- a very rare security vehicle, some transloaders, some containerized missiles (ballistic and cruise) and some support vehicles. Image
We also get to see what seems to be a warhead convoy, although we don't have great reference imagery. Still, we see a different, also very rare security vehicle and some mundane looking trucks, which isn't much but its what we'd expect for the 12 GUMO.
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Apr 14
After the US transmogrified Qasem Soleimani into his final form as a a parade float, Iran conducted a big missile strike against a US airbase in Iraq. Miraculously, no one else died.Did a whole pod ep on it.

Some implications for this morning. Season 2, Episode 5: The Worst Case Scenario (Almost)
middlebury.edu/deal-podcast
Iran was prepared for a significant escalatory response by the US -- so much so that a jumpy Tor SAM crew shot down a civilian airliner (PS752) taking off from Tehran International Airport, killing all 176 people on board.
cnn.com/2023/04/17/mid…
The US minimized the impact of the strike -- correctly stating that no one was killed in strike and incorrectly claiming that no significant injuries (Traumatic brain injuries are not "headaches".) However, by not responding, the situation was allowed to deescalate.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Read 5 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Apr 13
A quick summary on Iran's drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach Israel. Reminder, Iran is about 2000 km from Israel. Image
“Drones” usually means the Shahed-family of loitering munitions, like the -131/136 models that Iran exports to Russia. They are long-range, but only carry about 20 kg of explosives. (Not that I would want 20 kg of explosive dropped on my office, mind you.)
dia.mil/Portals/110/Do…
IDF officials have said the attack “also includes cruise missiles and not just drones." While there isn’t a clear dividing line between the two, that likely means Iran is also firing what I'd call land-attack cruise missiles which can have a 1000 kg payload.
Read 7 tweets

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