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Soon Putin will realize Lukaschenko regime can’t be saved but he’ll try to ensure Belarus doesn’t become a European denocracy - perhaps even a EU one.

Normally at this point the US president would stand firm.

I presume Trump is already on board with Putin to try & stop this.
2/

This explains why Lukaschenko is standing firm when most regimes would have already crumbled.

It’s the 1st time in history the Russians have US acquiescence to maintain a post Soviet dictatorship.
3/

It’s a rather strange situation.

The Belarus population, or at the very least the protestors, are likely smart enough to realize that they simply cannot count on the US for anything here.

So what happens now?
4/

My suspicion is Putin will attempt to buy Trumps support for a replacement to Lukaschenko who is sympathetic to Moscow, anti EU but enough of “a fresh face” to deter some protestors

And what’s more I think Trump will buy it - after all he needs help to rig his own election.
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