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@APanagariya @narendramodi I respectfully disagree.

The present global trading system has required persistent and ever rising trade deficits on the part of the US, as the reserve currency nation.

Those deficits became dollar reserves around the world and got multiplied by global banks & shadow-banks...
@APanagariya @narendramodi ... this has led to the situation where even larger quantities of dollars are required to save the global financial system from the persistent "dollar shortage" - a direct consequence of the multiplier.

Creating and injecting them into global finacial markets means even ...
@APanagariya @narendramodi ... even higher trade deficits on the part of the US, which is not politically feasible and socially acceptable due to the trade deficits's consequences for US industrial base and US jobs.

That means that the world and India have no option but to reduce dollar dependence ....
@APanagariya @narendramodi ...India is in a world where ever rising trade volumes may not be possible for a while due to the inability of the US to keep providing dollars and running deficits. Globalization has required ever-higher US deficits.

India becoming a huge net exporter is hard in that world ...
@APanagariya @narendramodi ...Atmanirbhar is the right policy for India in this new world where globalization recedes due to this serious US dollar issue and it reduces the need for India to become a huge net exporter to create jobs for our massive labour force.

I see no alternative to this policy. 🙏
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Sridhar Vembu
@svembu
1/ There are timeless business truths like "take care of customers well".

There are also transient or contextual truths like "it is easy to make money in X" and this "truth" becomes untrue by being too widely believed.

Then there is another category of business truth.
2/ The third category of business truth is the "what ought to be" - you imagine a new state of the world and you drive your actions towards achieving that goal.

In the present moment, the new state may look like a distant dream. Yet that dream becomes our companion and lover.
3/ Only words like love, passion, soul can capture the essence of this. Those are not words you find in a business presentation or an MBA curriculum. It cannot be taught, any more than romantic love can be taught.

It is commitment to that love that drives our greatest efforts.
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Sridhar Vembu
@svembu
1/ I hugely respect East Asia's achievement in lifting people from poverty. There is a lot to learn from the experience of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and later China.

In this thread, I will outline what I respectfully disagree about the East Asian model (respectfully stressed!)
2/ I will use Japan as my example because it is the quintessential East Asian success story. South Korea, Taiwan and later China were all influenced heavily by Japan's development experience.

I have been a student of Japanese industry/society for 25 years, starting in 1995.
3/ As post world war 2 Japan became an export powerhouse, Japanese industry acquired sophisticated technological capabilities. To this day, there are many critical industries (smart phone camera sensors would be one example) where Japanese companies rule the world.
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Sridhar Vembu
@svembu
1/ Just because I drive a car and have driven it for a long time does not give me any particular insight on how to build one. Building requires a conscious process of learning and mastery and takes years, decades.

This is a fundamental difference that economists often ignore.
2/ Just because India consumes hundreds of millions of smart phones does not by itself create the know-how on how to build the phones or the networks.

At best, it is a *signal* that demand exists but that signal does not magically transform into know-how and capability.
3/ Flawed economic doctrine is why India has not acquired the know-how after decades of reform and during that period America has *lost* the know-how in many key industries.

That doctrine can be summarised as "Eating causes food to be produced" or "consumption drives GDP".
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