Historically, the oil price has had huge fluctuations without climate policy. What hope do we have to understand what may happen to the oil price in the future, with or without climate policy?
2. Here are the oil price across scenarios assessed in #SR15. This may suggest 2°C is no different to the reference, & oil price is higher in 1.5°C scenarios...
BUT...
This is an unfiltered model ensemble with many biases, should compare model-by-model...
3. Comparing consistent scenarios in a model comparison (ADVANCE) gives a wide range of oil price behaviours depending on model.
Relative to reference scenarios, the oil price is generally (marginally) lower in a 2°C scenario & lower in 1.5°C scenarios (with large overlaps).
4. The IEA World Energy Outlook has a crude oil price:
* 2000: 40 $2018/barrel
* 2018: 68
* Current Policies: 2030: 111, 2040: 134
* Stated Policies: 2030: 88, 2040: 103
* Sustainable Development: 2030: 62, 2040: 59
Generally rising, but lower in mitigation scenarios
5. I think there is also a case for higher oil prices in 1.5°C & 2°C scenarios, driven by lack of investment & hence limited supply. [Though, I am not an oil price expert]
Are there many studies around that see oil prices rising with more stringent climate policy?
6. Recall in a historical context, the oil price swings from 20$/barrel & 150$/barrel depending on political & economic conditions (no climate policy).
Given the wild swings in historical oil prices, & we survived them, would oil companies be worried about climate policy?
/end
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Record high emissions means record high radiative forcing.
We have you covered, we also include aerosols (SO2, etc) & have done so for decades. Also shipping!
Short-lived aerosols are important, but should not distract from the drivers of change: greenhouse gas emissions!
2/
Most of the energy put into the system ends in the ocean (90%), so the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) has been increasing along with emissions and radiative forcing.
This also means the Earth Energy Imbalance is also increasing.
This question is ambiguous: "How high above pre-industrial levels do you think average global temperature will rise between now and 2100?"
* ...pre-industrial... between "now and 2100"?
* Where we are currently heading or where we could head? This is largely a policy question?
3/
One of the key arguments that Norway uses to continue oil & gas developments, is that under BAU it is expected that oil & gas production will decline in line with <2°C scenarios, even with continued investment.
Let's look closer at these projections & reality...
1/
Here is the projections from the 2003 report from the petroleum agency.
In reality (tweet 1) there was a dip around 2010, but production is now up around 250 million cubic again.
The forecast was totally & utterly WRONG!
2/
In 2011 there was a forecast for an increase in production to 2020, but then a decline. This is probably since they started to put the Johan Sverdrup field on the books.
The increase in production was way too low, again, they got it wrong.