Profile picture
, 6 tweets, 2 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
This is indeed a great piece by @MohanCRaja that offers imp. policy advise. And like most good pieces, its raises questions about contemporary Middle East & India's engagement therein. 1/n
indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
Do people in the region identify with a "moderate (& sovereign?) Arab centre"? Unlike 1950s when Arab nationalism was on an upswing, today we see little hope for pol. movements of that sort, esp. with SA & UAE (or even Egypt) at its centre. Can MBS be considered moderate? 2/n
Aren't Turkey & Iran's visions of (sectarian!) leadership as much at odd w/ each other as has been the case b/w Riyadh & Tehran? They may accommodate each other for now, but not forever. It's a cursed alliance, if one can term it as such at all. 3/n
Isn't giving up on Iran a long-term negative for India? Deeper examination of India's tormented relations w/ the Shah in the '70s should make one pause before sharpening Delhi's geopolitical position in the region. 4/n
If Pakistan is banking on even more reduced US influence in ME, is India banking on the opposite? Also, if Russia and China are working w/ Iran & Turkey, what is stopping them from altering UAE & SA's calculus in the coming years? How would India position itself then? 5/n
Either way, the policy options recommended in this piece are a practical way forward for India to craft its space & secure its interests in a v. complicated region.

There are no silver bullets in international relations. 6/n
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Avinash Paliwal

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PaliwalAvi see all

Profile picture
Avinash Paliwal
@PaliwalAvi
Couple of quick thoughts, @pstanpolitics a) China has offered shelter to various NE insurgents for some time, w/o letting them operate kinetically. b) P. Baruah is one, but H Tangkhul, T R Calvin, and some other N-IM cadre still operate from Yunnan 1/n
c) There has been an (expected) uptick in violence in Manipur recently, & acc. to some Indian officials there is indeed a "link to China". But, it is unclear whether this link is to Beijing, or to the illegal arms bazaar wherefrom Chinese-made weapons can easily be bought. 2/n
d) R&AW & MSS have been playing hide-&-seek on Baruah/Calvin/Tangkhul (among others) for long. N. Delhi has been worried about Beijing's potential re-activation of these groups; & the E. Ladakh crisis has *seemingly* given a good reason to Beijing (explains timing?). 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Avinash Paliwal
@PaliwalAvi
"... what must be recognised is that the NSCN, helmed by Muivah, is still a tough negotiator and the Centre can’t possibly depend beyond a point on the same toolbox used on other stakeholders in the region to sign on the dotted line." 1/n @sangbarooahpish
thewire.in/politics/nagal…
This is a significant move by N-IM that puts the onus on GoI. But it is also the final move in their diplomatic arsenal. (a) N. Delhi is unlikely to accept a separate flag & constitution; (b) N. Ravi did not go beyond/against the pol. remit set by PMO. 2/n
(c) N-IM is at its weakest moment since its creation in the 80s. Muivah, arguably, is the only leader that keeps it going (& his popularity too is ebbing). None of this means that Delhi is playing fair (far from it). But its strategy is more likely to succeed than N-IM. 3/n
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Avinash Paliwal
@PaliwalAvi
Random thoughts on India’s East: It’s astounding how Burma’s self-imposed isolation & discriminatory citizenship laws dislocated India’s eastward thrust and outreach. Even more astonishing is how little this is acknowledged in existing literature. 1/n
From being critical to India’s Non-Aligned strategy, & economic connectivity w/ SE Asia —& long before Look/Act East were coined— Burma’s (erroneously, if understandably) strategic value in N. Delhi was vastly reduced. Isolation cost Burma much, but it cost India a lot too. 2/n
Reading Parliamentary debates on how India wanted to settle returnees from Burma makes v. grim reading. Again, understandable why N. Delhi took the decisions it did, but amazing how little the long-term consequences of the same were discussed. 3/n
Read 6 tweets

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!