Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 18, 2020 7 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Senate Intelligence Committee Report: "Manafort hired and worked increasingly closely with a Russian national, Konstantin Kilimnik . Kilimnik is a Russian intelligence officer. Kilimnik quickly became an integral part of Manafort's operations in Ukraine and Russia..."
"Manafort briefed Kilimnik on sensitive Campaign polling data and the
Campaign's strategy for beating Hillary Clinton . AtManafort's direction , Gates used an
encrypted messaging application to send additional Campaign polling data to Kilimnik ."
"Manafort also discussed with Kilimnik a peace plan for eastern Ukraine that benefited the Kremlin. At Yanukovych's direction, Kilimnik sought Manafort's
assistance with the plan. Manafort continued to work with Kilimnik on the plan until at least
early 2018."
"The Committee obtained some information suggesting Kilimnik may have been connected to the GRU's hack and leak operation targeting the 2016 U.S.election."
Then a lot is redacted.
"The Committee found that Manafort’s presence on the Campaign and proximity to Trump created opportunities for the Russian intelligence services to exert influence over, and acquire confidential information on , the Trump Campaign."
"The Committee assesses that Kilimnik likely served as a channel to Manafort for Russian intelligence services."

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More from @anders_aslund

Nov 15
Suddenly, the US stock market has soured on the Trump presidency. The most obvious explanation is that Fed is not likely to cut the interest rate as much as anticipated, since inflation just rose. But this is hardly the full explanation./1
Trump's policies are all likely to boost inflation:
1. Kicking out millions of immigrant workers when the US has full employment (4.1% unemployment) = wage inflation.
2. Tariffs raise prices (or depress other currencies).
3. Tax cuts boost the huge budget deficit now 6.6% of GDP.
On top of this, Trump nominates 4 incompetent madhatters to top government jobs, showing all that he is completely incompetent & unsuited to be president, just like the last time around.
Strangely, many take Biden's admirable normality as a given. It is not./3
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10
The legacy of Angela Merkel is suitably dissipating.
1. The weeded out strong people, such as Friedrich Merz.
2. During 16 years she pursued no structural reforms.
3. During the euro crisis in 2010 she sat & did nothing for as long as possible, just bailing out the German banks.
4. She supported Putin's geopolitical Nord Stream 2 project, which was designed to attack Ukraine, while claiming that it was only commercial.
5. Merkel assisted Putin with the Minsk process, facilitating his full-scale attack in 2022.
6. Merkel refused to invite Ukraine to NATO in 2008 (together with Sarkozy) & set the German non-invitation policy.
7. Merkel refused to provide Ukraine with the necessary military support.
8. Merkel completely neglected Germany's defense.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 3
Finally, Russian economic policy discussion has come alive. After Chair of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina raised the interest rate to 21% - inflation is 8.7% year over year, so the real interest rate is extremely high at 12%
Now, 3 top Russian oligarchs have come out protesting against this high interest rate. They are Oleg Deripaska (who is rather outspoken), Alexei Mordashov & Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec. They claim these rates will cause mass bankrutpcies & want to oust Nabiullina.
Sergei Chemezov is by far most important. He is the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine & the ouster of Defense Minister Shoigu. He probably controls 80% of Russia's armaments industry because he served with Putin in the KGB in Dresden - his sole merit.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 19
Seldom has the US seemed more hypocritical than now:
1. Ukraine has been attacked & defends itself, but the US does not give it the arms it needs & tells it not to defend itself against Russia bases. Ukraine obeys to the letter.
2. Israel kills tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians with US weapons & does everything contrary to US desires. The US delivers more arms & blocks justified international protests against Israel's behavior.
3. The US forced Ukraine to give up its plentiful nukes in 1994 to Russia and "assured" Ukraine's security, but did nothing when Russia attacked in 2014 and 2022.
When Iraq occupied Kuwait in 1990, the US sent 500,000 US soldiers & thousands of tanks because of oil...
Read 7 tweets
Aug 24
I am no military expert, but I listen often to generals Breedlove & Hodges as well as Ian Brzezinski & Fred Kagan, which I wish the Biden administration would do as well.
1. The US compelled Ukraine to a hopeless counteroffensive in 2023...
The US demanded the offensive & told all what it was supposed to do, so the Russians built up their defenses. The US did not deliver any air support & a minimum of ATACMS. It made Ukraine bound to fail. Presumably the US sieve passed on all info to Russia.
2. The Biden administration has hold back the Ukrainians from attacking the Russian bases from which the Russians attack the whole of Ukraine, notably civilians. This is contrary to the UN Charter Article 51 on the right of self-defense. This is unacceptable.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 17
We receive so little accurate information from the Kremlin that the most reliable method is old-style Kremlinology, checking photos, meetings & official decisions. The picture is pretty clear & damaging for Putin.
1. About a dozen generals & top defense officials have been arrested by the FSB for corruption, but corruption is no crime in Russia but a requirement. This indicates that the whole military top is out & in particular Shoigu & Gerasimov, though still in high places.
2. As a consequence, the military does as little as possible & Putin does not trust them but calls on the FSB to handle the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk oblast as "an anti-terrorist operation," not recognizing that this is a war requiring military rather than assassins.
Read 10 tweets

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