Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 18, 2020 7 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Senate Intelligence Committee Report: "Manafort hired and worked increasingly closely with a Russian national, Konstantin Kilimnik . Kilimnik is a Russian intelligence officer. Kilimnik quickly became an integral part of Manafort's operations in Ukraine and Russia..."
"Manafort briefed Kilimnik on sensitive Campaign polling data and the
Campaign's strategy for beating Hillary Clinton . AtManafort's direction , Gates used an
encrypted messaging application to send additional Campaign polling data to Kilimnik ."
"Manafort also discussed with Kilimnik a peace plan for eastern Ukraine that benefited the Kremlin. At Yanukovych's direction, Kilimnik sought Manafort's
assistance with the plan. Manafort continued to work with Kilimnik on the plan until at least
early 2018."
"The Committee obtained some information suggesting Kilimnik may have been connected to the GRU's hack and leak operation targeting the 2016 U.S.election."
Then a lot is redacted.
"The Committee found that Manafort’s presence on the Campaign and proximity to Trump created opportunities for the Russian intelligence services to exert influence over, and acquire confidential information on , the Trump Campaign."
"The Committee assesses that Kilimnik likely served as a channel to Manafort for Russian intelligence services."

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More from @anders_aslund

Jan 13
Gideon Rachman: "Trump risks turning the US into a rogue state"
"The forcible or coerced takeover of a country by a larger neighbour is the biggest alarm bell in world politics. It is a signal that a rogue state is on the march."
ft.com/content/392260…
Gideon Rachman: "Attacks on small countries triggered the first and second world wars."
Trump's "claims that many Canadians would love to join the US are also delusional. The idea was rejected by 82 per cent of Canadians in a recent poll."
Read 6 tweets
Dec 28, 2024
What a world!
We are all waiting for the disaster Donald Trump to be inaugurated on January 20.
What catastrophe will he cause first?
1. Trying to imperialistically seize Canada, Greenland & the Panama Canal?
2. Impose skyhigh tariffs on friendly countries?
3. Deport 11.7 million unregistered immigrants who support US food production, Hospitality & construction?
4. Damage US hi-tech industry by restricting H1-B visas for skilled engineers further?
5. Cut taxes further on billionaires and large corporations to enrich billionaires, such as himself and his cabinet, even more?
6. Slash Social Security and Medicare (only benefiting the American people) to finance the billionaire tax cuts?
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15, 2024
Trump economic policy appears nothing but folly:
Overheating leading to high inflation, high interest rate, labor shortage, larger budget deficit and bigger public debt.
Initially, economic growth may stay strong, but it is not sustainable.
A mass expulsion of workers in agriculture, hospitality & construction will inevitably lead to higher food and restaurant prices, which will drive inflation.
Trump has promised massive tax cuts, especially for billionaires and corporates. If he really managed to get that through Congress in 2025, the already huge US federal budget deficit of 6.6% of GDP will become truly disastrous, because the Musk budget cuts are unrealistic.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 15, 2024
Suddenly, the US stock market has soured on the Trump presidency. The most obvious explanation is that Fed is not likely to cut the interest rate as much as anticipated, since inflation just rose. But this is hardly the full explanation./1
Trump's policies are all likely to boost inflation:
1. Kicking out millions of immigrant workers when the US has full employment (4.1% unemployment) = wage inflation.
2. Tariffs raise prices (or depress other currencies).
3. Tax cuts boost the huge budget deficit now 6.6% of GDP.
On top of this, Trump nominates 4 incompetent madhatters to top government jobs, showing all that he is completely incompetent & unsuited to be president, just like the last time around.
Strangely, many take Biden's admirable normality as a given. It is not./3
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10, 2024
The legacy of Angela Merkel is suitably dissipating.
1. The weeded out strong people, such as Friedrich Merz.
2. During 16 years she pursued no structural reforms.
3. During the euro crisis in 2010 she sat & did nothing for as long as possible, just bailing out the German banks.
4. She supported Putin's geopolitical Nord Stream 2 project, which was designed to attack Ukraine, while claiming that it was only commercial.
5. Merkel assisted Putin with the Minsk process, facilitating his full-scale attack in 2022.
6. Merkel refused to invite Ukraine to NATO in 2008 (together with Sarkozy) & set the German non-invitation policy.
7. Merkel refused to provide Ukraine with the necessary military support.
8. Merkel completely neglected Germany's defense.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 3, 2024
Finally, Russian economic policy discussion has come alive. After Chair of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina raised the interest rate to 21% - inflation is 8.7% year over year, so the real interest rate is extremely high at 12%
Now, 3 top Russian oligarchs have come out protesting against this high interest rate. They are Oleg Deripaska (who is rather outspoken), Alexei Mordashov & Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec. They claim these rates will cause mass bankrutpcies & want to oust Nabiullina.
Sergei Chemezov is by far most important. He is the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine & the ouster of Defense Minister Shoigu. He probably controls 80% of Russia's armaments industry because he served with Putin in the KGB in Dresden - his sole merit.
Read 10 tweets

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