Is there any republican left who does not understand that Trump supports Putin & not the West?
1. He praises Putin all the time & now even his servant Lukashenko.
2. Trump has imposed no sanctions on Russia or tariffs, but big tariffs on the EU & Ukraine. /1 3. Trump has not given Ukraine any arms or financial aid.
4. The US has twice voted in the UN with Russia & a dozen rogue states claiming mendaciously that Russia is NOT an aggressor against Ukraine.
5. Trump has ended all US media information against Russian disinformation. /2

What suggests that Trump works for Putin & Xi & not for the US?
1. He has launched an extraordinary and erratic trade war against all but Russia;
2. eliminated U.S. foreign aid programs;
3. upended U.S. alliances;
4. degraded the US administration; /1 5. Stopped all aid to Ukraine;
6. Reduced military support in NATO directed against Russia;
7. stopped all US state media directed against dictatorships;
8. ended support for democracy. /2

How will Russia's war in Ukraine end?
Both nations are very tired now, the Ukrainians more so, but Ukraine knows this is an existential war, it is not for Russia, only for Putin himself.
Ukraine spend 50% of GDP on the war, Russia only 7% & they complain. It tells you all. /1 After World War II, no imperial power has won a serious, prolonged imperial war. Russia won in Chechnya, which is not big, leading Putin to the wrong conclusion. Ukraine is too big & united to be defeated by a mindless colonial power, which Putin can't understand. /2

It is so tiresome to hear all these commentators saying that Trump's actions are "unprecedented" or that we are in "unchartered" waters. They say so to avoid criticize the president, who deserves all the criticism he can get. /1 1. As we all know, Trump lies all the time. During his first term, the Washington Post catalogued & counted his 32,000 lies, but now its billionaire owner Bezos has stopped this truth-telling.
All journalists should have a moral duty to say that Trump lied, whenever he did. /2

Stunning how weak US institutions are.
Trump wants crony capitalism = the accidental ruler is allowed to seize what he wants & give benefits to his darlings.
1. Proven corrupt SCOTUS gives him legal immunity.
2. GOP Congress does whatever POTUS says. /1 3. Trump starts trade wars against the whole world (apart from Russia) & nobody but China seems to be able to stand up to him. The Congress lies flat.
4. Trump cuts taxes for billionaires so that they finance his destruction of the economy as Hitler once did & they obey. /2

Incredible that Trump does not understand that Putin will refuse to see Zelensky until the bitter end.
Putin's reasons are many.
1. On July 12, 2021, Putin published his big declaration of war on Ukraine: ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“... Its essence was that no Ukrainian nation existed, since it was merely part of Russia.
But, of course, Trump got rid of Alexander Vindman, Fiona Hill & John Bolton who understood what this meant and went for Witkoff et al who know & understand nothing.
/2en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…

Thoughts on Alaska one week later:
1. Trump's invitation of Putin to US soil remains a massive betrayal of everything that the US stands for.
2. His invitation did nothing positive: Putin won & Trump appears his obedient servant. /1 3. Yet, Putin's victory was limited. Trump did not do 3 things (that I had feared).
A. He did not clearly side with Putin.
B. He did not end the US sanctions on Russia.
C. He did not instigate big US-Russia economic cooperation. /2

A few observations on the US-Russia-Ukraine-EU discussion on the war in Ukraine.
1. Witkoff has outstandingly understood absolutely everything & knows nothing about Russia. Incredible that Trump does not fire even him. The dumber & morte naive you are, the more Trump likes you. 2. Lavrov has made clear that Russia has made NO concession (couldn't he help us by saying that Witkoff is an idiot?). Russia denies Ukraine's right to exist as a nation. Only Trump & Witkoff appear dumb enough to miss that point. The other Trump people just go along.

Whoever writes that "all wars end with negotiations" should be refuted by an decent foreign affairs journal, because it is not true in modern times.
1. World War I ended with revolution in Russia in1917 and Germany in 1918. /1 2. World War II ended with the capitulations of Germany & Japan, because from January 1943 at their Casablanca summit Churchill & Roosevelt agreed not to negotiate with Hitler. /2

Various madhatters try to claim that I oppose diplomacy by opposing the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
No, try to understand!
1. Trump is not defending Ukraine, the US or the West but submitting to Putin as we know from Helsinki 2018. That is not in the interest of the West. /1 2. Trump is not only subservient to Putin but as dumb & uninformed as they come.
3. The whole idea of the meeting is based on Witkoff's misunderstanding that Putin was prepared to give up parts of the Zaporizhzhe & Kherson oblasts Russia holds. Wrong idea, no basis. /2

The incompetence of the Trump administration is incredible.
Witkoff has now met Putin five times in long meetings without any own interpreter or assistant.
He seems to have misunderstood everything.
1. The US demand was full ceasefire, but Putin offered only partial ceasefire. /1 2. Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from the rest of Zaporizhzhe & Kherson oblasts, but Witkoff thought he offered Russia to withdraw.
3. Witkoff thought Putin agreed a trilateral meeting with Trump & Zelensky, but he did not. /2

Trump is so predictable.
His "threat" of sanctions on Russia was merely an invitation to a one-on-one meeting with Putin & a way to block sanctions on Russia demanded by 85 senators.
Now Trump has set the stage for his selling out of Ukraine behind its back. /1 Ukraine will be given no seat or voice.
Putin will make no real concessions, possibly limiting warfare where Ukraine has an advantage, which Trump will try to enforce on Ukraine.
Trump is likely to de facto accept Russia's current occupation of Ukrainian territories. /2

A few observations on Trump's trade war:
1. There is no justification for Trump's trade aggression.
The cause of the US current account deficit is its excessive budget deficit of about 6.5% of GDP a year, leading to a public debt of currently 124% of GDP properly counted. /1 2. The US has not been "ripped off" by everybody but benefitted from benevolent international inflows of some $32 trillion to finance thanks to its exorbitant privilege of the USD & US treasuries, seen as safe assets. /2

Trump appears to be guided by the mercantilism of Jean Baptiste Colbert, the minister of finance of Louis XIV from 1665-1683 who revised the tariff system and expanded industrial policy. /1 Colbert's idea as that the state should rule in the economic realm & that the interests of the state as identified by the king were superior to everyone else. /2

How Trump's tariffs are likely to affect US consumer prices.
Trump's tariffs have already started causing higher consumer prices in the US, but only partially.
Importers have purchased large stocks in Q1 & appear to raise prices only for new imports. /1 The evidence from Trump's tariff hikes last time suggests that eventually importers pass on all the cost of the higher tariffs to end consumers.
This means that tariff hikes are not single events but a process of rising prices as previously imported stocks run down. /2

Trump's trade war probably qualifies as the greatest madness in economic policy in a developed country after WWII:
1. All decisions are made by one single person (Trump).
2. No principles are applied.
3. No economic rationale or theory.
4. All is based on Trump's emotions. /1 5. Many tariffs are very high, so the economic damage will be substantial.
6. There is no coordination of the tariffs so, for example, the US car industry may be decimated (@FT).
7. The only two countries Trump treat with respect are China & Russia, the purported enemies. /2

Observations on Trump's tariffs:
1. They are completely unjustified. The US balance of payments problem is an excessive US budget deficit.
2. They are completely arbitrary, entirely dependent on Trump's emotions.
3. They are high & will damage the global economy but most the US. /1 4. The Trump tariffs are not reciprocal but unilateral & they are not negotiated.
5. The higher the tariffs are, the more exemptions. The Brazilian 50% tariff is accompanied by 700 exemptions for the main goods traded.
6. The legal basis of these tariffs is dubious (IEEPA). /2

Trump's trade policy makes no economic sense & the biggest loser is likely to be the US.
1. Trump only talks about trade deficits, while the relevant measure is current account balance. The US has a big service surplus, though still a current account deficit. /1 2. The US can have its large current account deficit (& also a huge budget deficit) because the rest of the world has been happy to finance it, buying $ & US treasuries, which have been seen as perfectly safe, but now Trump is undermining the credibility of all that. /2

A few thoughts about Trump's trade policy:
1. Nothing in his trade policy makes sense. The US has not been ripped off but benefited from its exorbitant privilege that foreigners wanted to invest in the US & US treasuries before madman Trump destroyed it all. 2. Trump insists on extreme protectionism with tariffs up to 50% & probably with an average of 25%, while they used to be 2.5%. This makes no economic sense as pretty much all economists know. Trump is damaging the global economy, but most of all the insular US economy.

Tomorrow on June 24, the NATO summit will start with a dinner & conclude with a minimal session on June 25.
All fear that Trump will declare that he loves Putin - his kleptocracy, autocracy & imperialism. Yes, Trump is awful. State that! /1 Next, the ideologically real NATO members are afraid that Trump will attack Ukraine, while the whole purpose of NATO is to stand up to Russia and defend free democracies, but Trump hates democracies and freedom. /2

Trump's economic policy:
1. Wild protectionism = less growth & investment.
2. Changed policy every day = complete uncertainty.
3. Undermining the rule of law & property rights.
4. Driving foreign investors & nationals out of the US.
5. Hindering profitable immigration.
/1 6. Minimizing government support to research.
7. Harming the best US universities.
8. Risking fiscal unsustainability.
9. Harming the poor to cut taxes for billionaires.
10. Blatant personal corruption.
Trump stands for an economic disaster like 1929.
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