Whoever writes that "all wars end with negotiations" should be refuted by an decent foreign affairs journal, because it is not true in modern times.
1. World War I ended with revolution in Russia in1917 and Germany in 1918. /1 2. World War II ended with the capitulations of Germany & Japan, because from January 1943 at their Casablanca summit Churchill & Roosevelt agreed not to negotiate with Hitler. /2

Various madhatters try to claim that I oppose diplomacy by opposing the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
No, try to understand!
1. Trump is not defending Ukraine, the US or the West but submitting to Putin as we know from Helsinki 2018. That is not in the interest of the West. /1 2. Trump is not only subservient to Putin but as dumb & uninformed as they come.
3. The whole idea of the meeting is based on Witkoff's misunderstanding that Putin was prepared to give up parts of the Zaporizhzhe & Kherson oblasts Russia holds. Wrong idea, no basis. /2

The incompetence of the Trump administration is incredible.
Witkoff has now met Putin five times in long meetings without any own interpreter or assistant.
He seems to have misunderstood everything.
1. The US demand was full ceasefire, but Putin offered only partial ceasefire. /1 2. Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from the rest of Zaporizhzhe & Kherson oblasts, but Witkoff thought he offered Russia to withdraw.
3. Witkoff thought Putin agreed a trilateral meeting with Trump & Zelensky, but he did not. /2

Trump is so predictable.
His "threat" of sanctions on Russia was merely an invitation to a one-on-one meeting with Putin & a way to block sanctions on Russia demanded by 85 senators.
Now Trump has set the stage for his selling out of Ukraine behind its back. /1 Ukraine will be given no seat or voice.
Putin will make no real concessions, possibly limiting warfare where Ukraine has an advantage, which Trump will try to enforce on Ukraine.
Trump is likely to de facto accept Russia's current occupation of Ukrainian territories. /2

A few observations on Trump's trade war:
1. There is no justification for Trump's trade aggression.
The cause of the US current account deficit is its excessive budget deficit of about 6.5% of GDP a year, leading to a public debt of currently 124% of GDP properly counted. /1 2. The US has not been "ripped off" by everybody but benefitted from benevolent international inflows of some $32 trillion to finance thanks to its exorbitant privilege of the USD & US treasuries, seen as safe assets. /2

Trump appears to be guided by the mercantilism of Jean Baptiste Colbert, the minister of finance of Louis XIV from 1665-1683 who revised the tariff system and expanded industrial policy. /1 Colbert's idea as that the state should rule in the economic realm & that the interests of the state as identified by the king were superior to everyone else. /2

How Trump's tariffs are likely to affect US consumer prices.
Trump's tariffs have already started causing higher consumer prices in the US, but only partially.
Importers have purchased large stocks in Q1 & appear to raise prices only for new imports. /1 The evidence from Trump's tariff hikes last time suggests that eventually importers pass on all the cost of the higher tariffs to end consumers.
This means that tariff hikes are not single events but a process of rising prices as previously imported stocks run down. /2

Trump's trade war probably qualifies as the greatest madness in economic policy in a developed country after WWII:
1. All decisions are made by one single person (Trump).
2. No principles are applied.
3. No economic rationale or theory.
4. All is based on Trump's emotions. /1 5. Many tariffs are very high, so the economic damage will be substantial.
6. There is no coordination of the tariffs so, for example, the US car industry may be decimated (@FT).
7. The only two countries Trump treat with respect are China & Russia, the purported enemies. /2

Observations on Trump's tariffs:
1. They are completely unjustified. The US balance of payments problem is an excessive US budget deficit.
2. They are completely arbitrary, entirely dependent on Trump's emotions.
3. They are high & will damage the global economy but most the US. /1 4. The Trump tariffs are not reciprocal but unilateral & they are not negotiated.
5. The higher the tariffs are, the more exemptions. The Brazilian 50% tariff is accompanied by 700 exemptions for the main goods traded.
6. The legal basis of these tariffs is dubious (IEEPA). /2

Trump's trade policy makes no economic sense & the biggest loser is likely to be the US.
1. Trump only talks about trade deficits, while the relevant measure is current account balance. The US has a big service surplus, though still a current account deficit. /1 2. The US can have its large current account deficit (& also a huge budget deficit) because the rest of the world has been happy to finance it, buying $ & US treasuries, which have been seen as perfectly safe, but now Trump is undermining the credibility of all that. /2

A few thoughts about Trump's trade policy:
1. Nothing in his trade policy makes sense. The US has not been ripped off but benefited from its exorbitant privilege that foreigners wanted to invest in the US & US treasuries before madman Trump destroyed it all. 2. Trump insists on extreme protectionism with tariffs up to 50% & probably with an average of 25%, while they used to be 2.5%. This makes no economic sense as pretty much all economists know. Trump is damaging the global economy, but most of all the insular US economy.

Tomorrow on June 24, the NATO summit will start with a dinner & conclude with a minimal session on June 25.
All fear that Trump will declare that he loves Putin - his kleptocracy, autocracy & imperialism. Yes, Trump is awful. State that! /1 Next, the ideologically real NATO members are afraid that Trump will attack Ukraine, while the whole purpose of NATO is to stand up to Russia and defend free democracies, but Trump hates democracies and freedom. /2

Trump's economic policy:
1. Wild protectionism = less growth & investment.
2. Changed policy every day = complete uncertainty.
3. Undermining the rule of law & property rights.
4. Driving foreign investors & nationals out of the US.
5. Hindering profitable immigration.
/1 6. Minimizing government support to research.
7. Harming the best US universities.
8. Risking fiscal unsustainability.
9. Harming the poor to cut taxes for billionaires.
10. Blatant personal corruption.
Trump stands for an economic disaster like 1929.
/2

A few thoughts on Russia's war against Ukraine:
1. Trump does whatever he can to support Putin. His problem is that most republicans support Ukraine, so he gives them an opportunity to cheat themselves to claim that Trump supports Ukraine. /1 2. Consequently, Trump always finds a reason not to increase sanctions on Russia. Yet, the republican opinion compels him not to ease the existing sanctions.
Conclusion: Shame the hypocrite Trump so that he does not dare to turn fully against Ukraine! /2

My understanding of the Trump-Musk conflict:
1. Musk considers that he bought Trump's presidency & that Trump should behave as his obedient servant.
2. Trump acknowledges that Musk bought him & allowed dozens of regulatory concerns to lapse & $20 billion of gov contracts. /1 3. Neither could care less about any social safety net for the poor.
4. Both wanted to minimize taxes for billionaires at the expense of the poor.
5. Musk wants to punish the poor even more than Trump to reduce the budget deficit. /2

It is frustrating to read most American comments on Trump.
They tend to think that Trump is a serious president favoring the US. Instead, they should take the lunacy he utters seriously.
At best, Trump pursues his own PR, but more likely it is just lunacy. /1 Trump has made plain that most of all he is interested in enriching himself & his family.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa caught the essence: “I'm sorry we don't have a plane to give you.” Incredibly, Trump responded: “I wish you did. I'd take it.” /2

Trump insists on being the dumbest & most uninformed US president ever, causing the US tremendous damage, while enriching himself through dubious deals. What Trump has got wrong:
1. He claims that everybody has "ripped the US off," but the US GDP is 25% of global GDP as in 1980. 2. The US has thrived on the "exorbitant privilege" of foreigners investing $31 trillion (June 2024) in US bonds & stocks. The US is the greatest debtor in the world with a public debt of $36 trillion, $29 trillion in US treasuries.
If Trump was honest, he would thank.

Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency has caused tremendous damage to the US government & virtually nothing good:
1. By and large, it has operated against the law leading to hundreds of suits & no sustainable positive effects. /1 2. What one would have hoped that software engineers would have done is badly-needed digitization & simplification of government services, but apparently they have done none. /2

Everything is wrong with Trump's economic policies. Today, the US has the most incompetent economic policymaking of any developed economy & most emerging economies.
1. The prime US economic problem is an excessive public debt of 120% of GDP & budget deficits of 6.5% of GDP... /1 ...The obvious cure is to force the wealthy Americans & their companies to pay taxes - many of them pay nothing. The US public expenditures are tiny by international comparison. /2

In the last two weeks, US markets of all kinds have recovered.
I think this is a big mistake. Trump's tariff policy remains mad & enormously harmful to the US & the world.
He has still quadrupled US income tariffs & made the US the enemy of the whole world. /1 As everybody points out, Trump is unable to accept truth, to apologize or to retreat. Therefore, the US/Trump disaster is set to continue as long as he rules.
The GOP congressmen could stop it, but they are too cowardly.
The US billionaires are even more dastardly (cf Bezos) /2

Let me state the obvious again:
Nobody has ripped the US off as Trump so mendaciously claims.
On the contrary, the US has benefitted from an exorbitant privilege, that his predecessors & sound US institutions have imbued trust in the US $ & US treasuries. /1 Therefore foreigners held $30,881 billion of US securities on June 30, 2024, while the US GDP was merely $28 trillion. Of this $7.1 trillion was foreign holdings of US treasuries, of which $3,557 billion was held by foreign governments. /2
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