Decarbonization explainer thread:
Here I'll explain decarbonization, net-zero, carbon-neutral, CDR, NETs, NBSs, or decarbonizing the electric grid and how those come together to help stop the climate crisis. Depending on how much we act, we might be able to reverse the crisis.
Here I'll explain decarbonization, net-zero, carbon-neutral, CDR, NETs, NBSs, or decarbonizing the electric grid and how those come together to help stop the climate crisis. Depending on how much we act, we might be able to reverse the crisis.
Decarbonization means stop using fossil fuels (FF) and it may mean to remove some or all of human-caused (anthropogenic) emissions. We use FFs in electricity, transportation, and heat for buildings & making building materials: metals & rock. Decarbonization would be to move ...
... most if not all of those on to renewable sources.
Net-zero aka carbon-neutral (for yearly emissions) means no new anthropogenic emissions for the year.
Negative Emissions Technologies - NETs
Carbon Dioxide Removal - CDR
Nature Base Solutions - NBSs
Are all major ...
Net-zero aka carbon-neutral (for yearly emissions) means no new anthropogenic emissions for the year.
Negative Emissions Technologies - NETs
Carbon Dioxide Removal - CDR
Nature Base Solutions - NBSs
Are all major ...
categories of technologies/processes & solutions to remove carbon from the atmosphere or ocean and concentrate it in either a solid carbon or carbonate, or CO₂ gas.
Depending on the final form for carbon it may be close to permanent.
Depending on the final form for carbon it may be close to permanent.
How much carbon do we need to decarbonize?
As long as land-use change is less or about the same size as land sink, we can just focus on anthro. FF concentrated in the oceans and air:
folk.uio.no/roberan/img/GC…
A running total since 1751 would equate to about 451 GtC or 1652.5 GtCO₂
As long as land-use change is less or about the same size as land sink, we can just focus on anthro. FF concentrated in the oceans and air:
folk.uio.no/roberan/img/GC…
A running total since 1751 would equate to about 451 GtC or 1652.5 GtCO₂
If the land-use change exceeds the land sink we'll need to offset that carbon loss. This would happen in the case of forest fires or extreme topsoil loss such as in a drought condition, or erosion from flash floods.
And how much carbon? We have a rough idea of how to get to just shy of 1.5ºC degrees warmer than industrial times, this would be somewhere similar to the climate of 2000, by 2100, assuming we don't set off the tipping elements and act in time.
Note this is the climate of 2000 by 2100, but not something like that existed during preindustrial times.
Note the year 2000 is still in the pink, not medium blue or darker.
Note the year 2000 is still in the pink, not medium blue or darker.
We don't study how much carbon would need to be removed to get to the climate that existed in the 1750s-1800s.
If we really care about extinctions we should study lower-carbon scenarios.
If we really care about extinctions we should study lower-carbon scenarios.
I have a study on hold. It's open-source, feel free to download the MAGICC SCENs, etc., & fork it. bit.ly/cdrmexprj The guestimate is it's about however much we end up emitting from fossil fuels divided by the years left to 2100.
(assuming we act before setting off the larger tipping elements.)
How did those hypotheticals get to cumulative zero emissions at 2100? By eliminating all industrial fossil fuels use except ammonia and by removing all accumulated anthropogenic CO₂.
I did this as we have both short term and long term health and biosphere effects: vox.com/energy-and-env…
Why do we need to get off fossil fuels asap? Because we've exceeded all but the later and largest tipping elements:
Given lockdowns, it's likely we hit 450 ppm by mid-2030s.
Given lockdowns, it's likely we hit 450 ppm by mid-2030s.
What do we need to do to get off of fossil fuels?
Decarbonize the electric grid w/ renewables. Solar nearly supplies final demand.
This won't be as hard as ppl fear.
Decarbonize transport, & heat processing. These will take effort but are doable in 15yrs.
Decarbonize the electric grid w/ renewables. Solar nearly supplies final demand.
This won't be as hard as ppl fear.
Decarbonize transport, & heat processing. These will take effort but are doable in 15yrs.
Decarbonize plastic products. Also doable and given global plastic use is a little over a gigatonne it doesn't have the scaling challenges as ramping up CDR.
If we start forecasting like bit.ly/nco2bal, we can create new economies around carbon removal & away from FF.
If we start forecasting like bit.ly/nco2bal, we can create new economies around carbon removal & away from FF.
The trick is to incentivize these new industries to be fully C2C, zero waste, and net-zero carbon footprint.
And about 1/3 of the CDR solutions are NBSs. We'll need all those fully scaled to alleviate energy demand from CDR solutions and still have over 36 GtCO₂ removed.
And about 1/3 of the CDR solutions are NBSs. We'll need all those fully scaled to alleviate energy demand from CDR solutions and still have over 36 GtCO₂ removed.
If we implement the most aggressive climate policies to radically lower emissions and accumulated carbon, we'll stand a better chance at decoupling human growth from planetary habitat destruction.
