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Couple of thoughts from Washington DC on the first full day of the Kadhimi visit. The first is the huge scale of the visit and the preparations on both sides. The visit was a major investment for both sides, with the US providing a fantastic protocol amd security reception.
The US Secret Service have thrown a powerful but polite blanket around the delegation hotel and it is deeply impressive, comforting and shows great attention to detail. It is a major show of respect for the delegation.
The visit of PM @MAKadhimi is the highest profile of a tiny number of head of state visits to DC this year and the biggest event since Covid. The Iraq-US Strategic Dialoge sessions today make it feel like a conference or a trade exhibition, not just a leadership summit.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Finance and Minister of Oil, plus others, are all here and VERY active around town. The meetings with investors & US government counterparts is back-to-back and dawn-to-late night. Iraq’s team is working hard, fighting thru the jet lag
It all leaves a nice impression: capable officials, working hard to produce outcomes, moving the ball forward incrementally. This is how it is supposed to work between countries & govts and this feels really ... well, normal. Pretty good show against a crazy world backdrop
There have been tough negotiations and there will be some more, but behind closed doors and between people who want to find the right balance. In my experience, there’s a lot of pragmatism being shown by both sides, much listening, and a minimum of bluster from either - so far.
This afternoon a raft of investment deals will be signed after many months of painstaking scene-setting and diplomatic and commercial spadework. Each deal represents a case study of compromise based on mutual interests, with each side going as far as they wish at this stage.
Many issues, such as Coalition role and mission and troop levels, are marked by strong consensus between the parties, with the tricky bit being how to frame the issue in a way negative forces in either capital cannot frame to their advantage.
Security threats and cooperation is an issue that is receiving strong focus as discussion, with consensus on Iraq’s need for security assistance and stronger security institutions. There’s a remarkable level of trust compared to prior years, underpinned by personal relationships.
The atmospherics of the summiit are marked by many joyful reunions: old friends from the 1990s, the 2000s, or newer friends fretting each other with a jovial elbow tap. At moments like this, the Baghdad and DC bureaucracies recall how many touch points we share.
If one were to add up all the American officials and business persons who rotated through Iraq since 2003, it would number in the tens of thousands. Those deep connections, forged in adversity, feel close and present again on days like today.
Summits are particularly useful because they enforce a degree of pragmatism. It is easier to wag a finger from afar than to do it directly to interlocutors who can challenge your premise, test your thinking, and explain what they have tried, risked, and what they plan to do next.
Outputs starting to flow out: nice non-controversial Pompeo/Hussein “press conference”, nine deals signed (4 electricity, 3 oil/gas, 1 health, 2 finance), and another strongly supportive message from Congress
Outputs day two: nice civilized set of private and public White House meets, very positive atmospherics, little bit of US “max pressure”-talk but pretty muted really and nothing iraq is expected to sign up for. Well handled by all involved. President trump graciously offers PM Kadhimi to go first thr
I think POTUS is reflecting that US/CJTF troop presence in Iraq sits at a level that is flexible, fit for purpose, and signals commitment without over-commitment. Critics of forever wars across the aisle seem to recognize Iraq is a different proposition now.
The dialogue moves next to joint coordination committees in the coming months on specific issues, for follow-up and ongoing development. Development of the Inherent Resolve phase IV concept and the required training forces will be a big job. Energy cooperation, Econ reform also
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