#Belarus THREAD.
We are 10 days after the rigged 9 August election and I see three potential scenarios for the months ahead. In 2 of these scenarios Lukashenka goes, and in 1 stays.
1/x
We are 10 days after the rigged 9 August election and I see three potential scenarios for the months ahead. In 2 of these scenarios Lukashenka goes, and in 1 stays.
1/x
Scenario 1. Civil and labour unrest continue, damaging the economy and creating cracks int he elites, who start to defect from Lukashenka's admin. After losing support in his own government, Lukashenka goes - and most probably flees the country.
2/x
2/x
Scenario 2. Protests turn more violent in response to renewed police violence against the protesters. Protesters take over detention centres and government buildings. Violent overthrow of Lukshenka administration - he flees the country if he is lucky.
3/x
3/x
Scenario 3. Protests dissipate, labour strikes end as workers lose paychecks. Russia openly supports Lukashenka emboldening another crackdown against the protesters. Lukashenka, while being deeply unpopular, hangs on to power. He is isolated from the West by the sanctions.
4/x
4/x
Scenario 2 (violent overthrow) is the least likely. Scenarios 1 and 3 have similar probabilities, if you ask me.
Russian position will probably crucial. If the Kremlin decides they can work with the opposition, they can agree to Lukashenka's departure. If not, he stays on.
5/5
Russian position will probably crucial. If the Kremlin decides they can work with the opposition, they can agree to Lukashenka's departure. If not, he stays on.
5/5
