The global economy is recovering at a modest pace after bottoming out in April, with data showing much improvement from May to July. But how long can this pace be sustained? Will social distancing measures and restricted global travel cap the recovery?
Those remain key questions as we gauge the "new normal" across major economies.
Sure, things are getting better with time but how much "better" can things be when there are fears of a second wave brewing in many countries/regions once again?
Sure, things are getting better with time but how much "better" can things be when there are fears of a second wave brewing in many countries/regions once again?
The health crisis remains a key factor to keep an eye out for and in countries with less fiscal space to act, not addressing the virus situation will just lead to the economic and potentially financial crisis worsening in the coming months.
We have moved on from the first shock from the coronavirus earlier in the year but given how there are still many countries/regions struggling with the health crisis - and potentially more to come - this remains a spot worth watching just in case.
If anything, look towards the end of Q2 and Q3 for a better assessment on how the economic recovery is progressing. Should there be signs that the pace of the recovery is slowing down and headwinds are persisting, that could offer some resistance to risk assets.
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