Thread by @SethAbramson

(THREAD) BREAKING: The Senate Intelligence Committee Report solved the Trump-Russia *and* Trump-UAE collusion mysteries simultaneously. Using the Report, this thread explains that collusion wasn't what—or where—many thought. I hope you'll read and RETWEET this historic narrative.

SOURCES/ The two sources for this thread are the nearly 1,000-page SSCI Report—so vast and detailed that its pages will be "breaking news" for weeks, as no one has digested it yet—and the NYT bestseller on Trump's Middle East foreign policy, Proof of Conspiracy (Macmillan, 2019).

NARRATIVE/ I'm going to tell this narrative sequentially, though it doesn't appear sequentially in either the SSCI Report or Proof of Conspiracy. In other words, I'm isolating one narrative thread amid hundreds of narrative threads to reveal how it is key to the whole tapestry.

SUMMARY/ Investigators long thought Trump's pre-election collusion bilateral and binary: either Trump colluded directly with Russia in hacking and propaganda or he was innocent. The SSCI Report reveals the collusion was quadrilateral—a team effort joining UAE, Israel, and Russia.

SUMMARY2/ The surprise I will offer in this thread is that the SSCI Report didn't put together the picture of the quadrilateral collusion that helped steal the 2016 election. It offered some core facts—but mis-synthesized them because it was missing information. I'll add it here.

SUMMARY3/ This thread takes the form, as I said, of a sequential narrative. It's tricky because there are four collaborating entities—the Trump campaign, the UAE, Israel, and Russia—and several key agents from each involved. I will try to tell this as *cleanly* as I possibly can.

1/ In the last week of March 2016, Manafort is hired by the Trump campaign. He brings his longtime associate Rick Gates with him as an assistant. He's gotten to the campaign via Trump pal Thomas Barrack, who has close business ties to UAE's ambassador to the US, Yousef al-Otaiba.

2/ Yousef al-Otaiba is, by March 2016, a secret adviser to Trump's campaign. As for Manafort, he has said he needs to "get to Trump" in part to "get whole" with his old boss, Oleg Deripaska—a top Putin agent. Manafort's go-between to Deripaska is Russian intel officer Kilimnik.

3/ At the same time al-Otaiba is secretly advising the Trump campaign, so too is Ron Dermer, the Israeli ambassador to the US, who works for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—both a Trump family friend and a Kushner family friend. Netanyahu's ex-chief of staff is George Birnbaum.

4/ I'll pause here to note that already—in March 2016—the Trump campaign had a nexus of agents and advocates for four nations swirling about it:

🇦🇪: al-Otaiba, Barrack
🇮🇱: Birnbaum, Dermer
🇷🇺: Deripaska, Kilimnik
🇺🇸: Manafort, Gates

Be aware—these lists are about to get longer.

5/ Within 120 hours of Manafort being hired by Trump to be his convention manager at the RNC, an Israeli cyberintelligence firm (Psy-Group) approaches Trump's campaign to offer its services—technically illegal if conducted by foreign nationals. Birnbaum has made the introduction.

6/ While Psy-Group talks most with Manafort's aide Gates, per the SSCI it knew it was time to approach Trump's campaign because a "major American political consultant" had just been hired. We know this is Manafort because Psy-Group's first pitch involved *convention management*.

7/ One of Psy-Group's top clients at the time it approached Trump's campaign because of Manafort was...former Manafort boss Oleg Deripaska—the person Manafort had to "get whole with." Fortunately for Manafort, Deripaska's client Psy-Group was giving him a chance to aid Deripaska.

8/ Paul Manafort agreeing to use Deripaska's Psy-Group would "aid" Deripaska because Deripaska is aware of an ongoing Russian hacking and propaganda campaign overseen by his own boss, Putin. Deripaska describes himself as an agent of the Kremlin, and loyal *only* to the Kremlin.

9/ What Psy-Group pitches to Manafort and Gates right after their hire by Trump are two ways to please Deripaska, which Manafort and Gates—and Manafort liaison to Deripaska, Russian intel officer Kilimnik—very much want to do. One plan involves the RNC, the other something else.

10/ The "something else" is a "Clinton dirt" campaign that becomes less new/attractive when a) the Kremlin hacks the DNC, b) Kremlin agents go to Trump Tower offering Clinton dirt. Psy-Group gives Trump's campaign a quote of $5 million to $10 million for the two cyber-operations.

11/ Manafort/Gates tell Psy-Group they need the price to come down. We don't know how much they want it to come down, but for purposes of math coming up later in the thread let's say—in a clearly conservative assumption—they want it to be $4 to $8 million, not $5 to $10 million.

12/ I'll pause now to make several notes. First, be aware that at this time in 2016, Israel (🇮🇱: Netanyahu, Birnbaum, Dermer, Psy-Group) and UAE (🇦🇪: al-Otaiba and his advocate Barrack) were in a secret detente. The focus the detente was high-level cyber-intelligence cooperation.

13/ Second, be aware that at this time in 2016, the Trump campaign was also being regularly advised by Erik Prince—simultaneously an adviser to MBZ, the ruler of the UAE—and Michael Flynn, working with the UAE and Israel on a secret energy deal that also heavily involved Russia.

14/ Third, you should know that Flynn—at this time in 2016—was an associate of Joel Zamel, Psy-Group's chief. And Prince was a longtime associate of George Nader, another adviser to MBZ of the UAE. Nader's role for MBZ? Liaison between MBZ and Putin. We'll return to all of this.

15/ Fourth, you should know that in April 2016, as Psy-Group is approaching Trump's campaign, Prince is connecting with Nader (UAE-Kremlin liaison); has a pal go with Putin stooge Dana Rohrabacher to talk to Kremlin agents directly in Moscow; and is regularly speaking to Stone...

16/ ...who in April 2016 alerts Trump's campaign for the first time that he's in contact with Kremlin-cutout WikiLeaks. With these notes made, in my next tweet I'll "refresh" our list of major players. The notation "(T)" means someone is also a liaison to the 2016 Trump campaign.

17/ The players:

🇺🇸: Manafort, Gates, Prince (T), Flynn (T), Stone
🇦🇪: al-Otaiba, Nader (🇷🇺 liaison), Prince (T), Barrack (T), Flynn (T)
🇮🇱: Netanyahu (T), Birnbaum (T), Dermer (T), Zamel, Psy-Group, Flynn (T)
🇷🇺: Putin, Deripaska, Kilimnik (T), Flynn (T), Stone (T), Rohrabacher

18/ I understand this seems confusing, so I'll simplify it in this way: when Manafort joins Trump's campaign, the Kremlin hacking campaign is well underway and the propaganda campaign is just starting up. The Kremlin *does not need Trump campaign assistance for these operations*.

19/ What the Kremlin *does* need is for its efforts to be effective. And to do that, it must *coordinate* with the Trump campaign via intermediaries, and must ensure that the campaign is *colluding* with Kremlin operations by acting in a way mutually beneficial to its operations.

20/ The Kremlin has regular dealings with the UAE, particularly through Nader. It connected with Flynn in 2015, who was—and in April 2016 still *is*—trying to bring Russia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel together on an energy deal. It has an agent—Manafort—in Trump's campaign.

21/ For the Kremlin to ensure it is coordinating and colluding with the Trump campaign, it can and will work directly through the campaign—the Putin-Deripaska-Kilimnik-Manafort-Trump pipeline—but also needs to use Nader to work through the UAE and Israel (Nader knows Netanyahu).

22/ So back to the main narrative, now. As Psy-Group is refining its pitch to the Trump campaign in spring 2016, the man who will ultimately push the campaign to work with Psy-Group—Erik Prince—is creating and overseeing lines of communication between the UAE, Russia, and Israel.

23/ Psy-Group is offering the Trump campaign, in April 2016, a "two-plan package": an RNC op to sway delegates toward Trump, and a plan to get dirt on Clinton and her team. Manafort doesn't have the money he needs to fund the plans—and soon decides the RNC op isn't needed at all.

24/ Psy-Group's cyber-op offer(s) languish in April, May, June and July 2016 because Trump doesn't want to spend his own money like he promised; Manafort is still building his power in the campaign; the focus is on the RNC (not the general) and the Trump campaign is disorganized.

25/ As soon as Donald Trump receives the 2016 GOP presidential nomination at the RNC, however, Erik Prince (🇦🇪🇺🇸), Psy-Group chief Joel Zamel (🇮🇱), and George Nader (🇦🇪🇷🇺🇮🇱🇺🇸) score a meeting with Don Jr. (🇺🇸) at Trump Tower to pitch a cyber-intelligence campaign to Trump's team.

26/ Per the SSCI, at this historic meeting in the first week of August 2016, Psy-Group has no more reason to pitch an RNC plan—as the RNC is now over—and the "Clinton dirt" plan is now (a bit mysteriously) seen as obviated, i.e. redundant, perhaps due to Russia's hack of the DNC.

27/ But here's where I can start to blow aside the fog of mystery. Per the SSCI Report, Joel Zamel has three *key clients* in August 2016, besides the client (Trump) he's seeking: Erik Prince; Putin agent Deripaska; and Trump business associate and Putin agent Dmitry Rybolovlev.

28/ So given that the Kremlin was working hard to access and share "Clinton dirt" in June 2016—witness its meeting with Manafort, Trump Jr., and the Trump campaign's top Israel and UAE liaison, *Kushner*, at Trump Tower; witness also the DNC hack—Zamel knew that op wasn't needed.

29/ So what Zamel, Prince, and Nader pitch to Don Jr. instead is a "3-pronged" voter suppression cyber-campaign focused on the following groups (remember these): "minority communities, suburban female voters, and undecided voters." That's the UAE-Israel pitch to Trump's campaign.

30/ Basic math confirms the cost of the Israel-UAE plan pitched by Zamel, Prince, and Nader to Don Jr. in August 2016 would've been about $2 million. Why? If the earlier proposal—for 2 ops—was $4 to $8 million, just one op would cost $2 to $4 million. But actually less than that.

31/ The Psy-Group campaign Zamel, Prince, and Nader—all of whom deal extensively with Russia—are pitching Trump's campaign would more likely cost $2 million than $3-4 million because it's now August—and the original pitch was in *April*. A plan that costs $4 million in April...

32/ ...when the election is 7 months away, should cost far less in August, when the election is 3 months away and the op—which ultimately comes to involve 50+ people—will have to be run for a far shorter time. Of course *now*, post-RNC, is when the campaign really *wants* the op.

33/ Here's where the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence made its key *error*, which this thread rectifies—changing our understanding of Trump-Russia collusion to recognize it as quadrilateral Trump-Russia-Israel-UAE collusion. And it can only be fully understood in this way.

34/ The SSCI *wrongly* concludes that Zamel *never ran the $2 million op* for the Trump campaign—which is good news for Trump, as such a campaign would have been illegal collusion between Trump and... well, *three* nations: Israel, the UAE, and Russia.

I'll explain why that is.

35/ Israeli PM Netanyahu's agent acted as intermediary to bring the Israeli Psy-Group to Trump; Psy-Group—linked to Deripaska—was offering an op that dovetailed with the Kremlin interference its client was involved with; and the UAE offered to *pay for* Psy-Group's illegal work.

36/ That's right: at the August 2016 Trump Tower meeting, 3 key things happen that, when you understand them—and one other fact I reveal here—you understand why the SSCI Report is wrong on its most critical point. Here are the 3 key things the Report says happened at Trump Tower:

37/

1⃣ Zamel (🇮🇱) asks Don Jr. (🇺🇸) if Nader (🇦🇪) can pay for the op.
2⃣ Zamel asks Don Jr. if the op is a "conflict" for the Trump campaign.
3⃣ Zamel asks Don Jr. if the op as he has described it—remember the "3 prongs"—"conflicts" with what the Trump campaign is doing itself.

38/ Don Jr.'s answers—per the SSCI:

1⃣ It's fine for Nader (🇦🇪 agent) to pay for the op.
2⃣ The campaign has no objection to it—in answer to Zamel's coded "Is this a 'conflict' for you?" (an opportunity for Don to nix it).
3⃣ What you're doing *isn't* what the campaign is doing.

39/ The NYT says that Don Jr. responded "approvingly" to the Israeli-UAE pitch—a pitch Proof of Conspiracy reports, with full sourcing, dovetailed with the Kremlin election-interference campaign run by the boss of Psy-Group's client Deripaska—and the SSCI confirms he greenlit it.

40/ But none of this matters if the op never ran.

The SSCI says it couldn't find evidence it ran.

But it *did* run—indeed, all the evidence confirms that it ran. That evidence was missed by the SSCI.

So this, now, in the next ten tweets, is the final chapter of this narrative.

41/ In October 2016, an anonymous high-level official with the Trump campaign revealed to US media that the Trump campaign was running "three" cyber-operations described as "voter suppression" efforts. And who was this 3-pronged cyber-operation targeting?

I think you can guess.

42/ That's right: the Trump campaign—via an anonymous official—revealed to media pre-election that its three-pronged voter-suppression cyber-operation was targeting "black voters," "young women," and "[undecided] white liberals." Here's one story on this: thehill.com/blogs/ballot-b…

43/ But wait! you might say. How do we know that *this* campaign was the Russia-dovetailing, Israeli-run, Emirati-funded $2 million campaign pitched to (and *approved*) by Don Jr. in August 2016?

Well, do you know how much Nader paid Zamel right after the election?

$2 million.

44/ But remember, too, that the SSCI Report has Don Jr. telling Zamel *directly* that a 3-pronged operation of the sort Zamel described *would not conflict* with anything being done by the Trump campaign. So that leaves only two options for the quadrilateral collusion narrative:

45/

1⃣ The campaign had *no plans* for a 3-pronged cyber op of the sort Zamel described. The campaign revealed in October *was* Zamel's campaign—paid for by Nader, greenlit by Don.
2⃣ Don knew the campaign *was* running such an op, and greenlit Zamel *doing the same* to assist.

46/ Either situation is a federal crime—and *collusion*. Especially as Trump adviser Prince coordinated it, Nader immediately thereafter *became* a Trump adviser for the last 90 days of the campaign, and per Proof of Conspiracy Zamel *told Nader he ran the campaign pre-election*.

47/ But there's so much more. The SSCI Report describes Zamel running—immediately after the election—what we would deem a "dummy operation" for Nader: a virtually-no-effort PowerPoint presentation that was clearly a pretext for Nader to pay him $2 million for the pre-election op.

48/ Trump's campaign plane secretly "meets" Psy-Group client (and Putin ally) Rybolovlev *twice* in the 10 days pre-election. Trump adviser Stone—who spoke to Manafort, Gates and Prince 180+ times in April/May 2016—ends up hounding the Israelis about an election-interference op.

49/ Stone was in touch with Kremlin cutout WikiLeaks *and* the Israelis—so, both sides of *two* operations intended to dovetail. Stone even gets livid when the Israelis bring a "lieutenant general" to a meeting because the campaign (Flynn) is supposed to be *kept out of this*.

50/ Every fact in the SSCI report confirms the campaign—Manafort, Gates, Flynn—used intermediaries (Jr., Stone, Prince, Nader) to coordinate with 2 dovetailed operations: a Russian one (Deripaska, Putin, Kilimnik) and an Israeli-UAE one (al-Otiaba, Dermer, Birnbaum, Zamel, MBZ).

CONCLUSION/ Per the SSCI Report, Manafort is a Kremlin agent who shared proprietary data with Russian intel. True—but that's only part of it. He "got whole" with Deripaska by using Deripaska's associates—Psy-Group—to run a Kremlin-dovetailed, Trump-approved pre-election cyber-op.

PS/ That the Trump team *knew* the Israeli-UAE op it greenlit was linked to the Russian interference campaign is clear. Everyone on the Trump team involved in this had links to both sides: Manafort, Prince, Nader, al-Otaiba, Zamel, Don Jr., Stone. The two ops were *synchronized*.

PS2/ The SSCI Report and Proof of Conspiracy confirm that the pre-election Trump collusion was *quadrilateral*—not bilateral. The collusion has been missed precisely *because* it's been wrongly assumed to be bilateral. We *must* begin calling it Trump-Russia-Israel-UAE collusion.

PS3/ I urge people to—once you've read this thread—go back and review the reporting, the SSCI Report, and Proof of Conspiracy on the subject of the January 2017 Seychelles meetings.

Who was there? Trump, Russia, Israel, UAE. Prince, Nader, MBZ, a Kushner agent and a Putin agent.

PS4/ Trump's 2016 deal with the Emiratis—known about by his son—was a quid pro quo that's still being paid off. Trump is now in the midst of what even the Emiratis' allies—and 2016 collaborators—the Israelis call a "secret" deal to arm the UAE with F-35s. haaretz.com/us-news/trump-…

PS5/ If you now understand "collusion" as *four-sided*—quadrilateral—you understand every word of the SSCI Report, Proof of Conspiracy, and major-reporting on the topics covered by the first two. Mueller's chief limitation was he had to look at the case for *bilateral* collusion.

SOURCE1/ Proof of Conspiracy (Macmillan 2019). The book addressed Trump-UAE, Trump-Saudi Arabia and Trump-Israel collusion a year before the release of the SSCI Report. The Report confirms its contents—and there's much in the book that isn't in the Report. amazon.com/Proof-Conspira…

SOURCE2/ The epic SSCI Report is the most important government doc since the Mueller Report, and at least *twice* as damning as the first volume of the latter document. It is shocking—and journalists will be "breaking" news from it for weeks. Read it here: cnn.com/2020/08/18/pol…

NOTE/ Here's the SSCI-Report description of the preposterous "dummy" operation Zamel executed for Nader for *$2 million dollars*—*immediately* after the election—which had the effect of hiding that Zamel (as he confessed to Nader) had done the "3-prong" op for the Trump campaign.

NOTE2/ Notice that—despite MBZ/Nader paying him *the same amount as the 3-prong operation cost*—all Zamel did for this was have a non-Psy-Group non-expert "Google a bunch of articles" and produce a presentation Nader didn't care about. But Nader admitted it was "for [Trump Jr.]."

NOTE3/ As a former criminal investigator and longtime defense attorney, I can see—as anyone reading this can—a low-tech coverup. Nader/Zamel admit the work was for Trump Jr., but pretend it was a post-election $2 million op—not a pre-election one. Attn (whole thread): @MarkWarner