Thread by @pmdfoster

You can read @MichelBarnier remarks on Round 7 of the UK-EU trade talks here (FR and EN).

Tl;dr. This sentence - paring back the 'ask' won't move EU stance on a need for level playing field - like it or not /1

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

@MichelBarnier The UK is deeply frustrated by this.

Why should it sign up to any such guarantees for a super-skinny, nay, emaciated, FTA?

But the EU have been banging on about this since the start - recall the March 2018 mandate.

Nothing if not consistent /2

consilium.europa.eu/media/33458/23…

@MichelBarnier The mood music is pretty ugly.

Technically, you can see landing zones on State Aid.

But fundamentally, the UK strategy (pare back the 'ask' until the EU caves) is potentially a risk for an 'accidental' no deal...

This @AntonSpisak gets at the issue /3
institute.global/policy/uk-fall…

@MichelBarnier @AntonSpisak I wrote something quite similar myself three weeks ago - this danger that the EU and UK talk across each other until it is too late. /4

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1288857481859477504?s=20

@MichelBarnier @AntonSpisak Ultimately, with @BorisJohnson away camping, this round was always going to be limited.

But there is now a lot of pressure on the Sept 7-12 Round. If positions remain fixed then you'll start to hear alarm bells ringing.

Some will see that as usual part of process. But.../5

@MichelBarnier @AntonSpisak @BorisJohnson There is a lot to get done...and for all the macro political forces pointing towards the need for a deal, there is a world where @BorisJohnson convinces himself that, given the narrowing gap between what a deal and no deal delivers, the 'base' will warm to a 'no deal'. /6

@MichelBarnier @AntonSpisak @BorisJohnson That would be a catastrophic failure of statecraft.

A 'no deal' isn't an endstate in itself. It's a form of purgatory from which the UK will have to emerge.

How any government could justify willfully making people poorer is beyond me. But that doesn't mean it cant happen. /7

@MichelBarnier @AntonSpisak @BorisJohnson I still bet on a deal, optimist that I am. I'm not sure @BorisJohnson
has the stomach for a cliff-dive.

But we've seen with the A-Level fiasco the capacity for this government to ignore expert warnings and sleepwalk into messes of its own making.

So perhaps I'm just naive. ENDS

@MichelBarnier @AntonSpisak @BorisJohnson PS..Scotland might be another reason senior figures like @michaelgove might counsel against a no deal. This statement from Michael Russell @Feorlean gives you a taster of what's to come...