Peter Foster Profile picture
Public Policy Ed at the Financial Times. Opinions my own. "One of the worst hacks in SW1" - Dominic Cummings 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 💙 #FBPE Profile picture Carol Profile picture Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture Jay Jernigan Profile picture sl-xf Profile picture 43 subscribed
Mar 22 6 tweets 2 min read
This was interesting session. The 'chart wars' are a bit baffling if you're not an economist. I'm not. But I am a reporter. Gudgin argued #Brexit had no effect on the economy, but I don't know how that squares with all the conversations I've had with business in last 6 years/1 I get you can argue over the quantum of #brexit impact -- Springford model says -5.5% GDP, Portes reckons that fees too high, says thinks -2.5%...Jessop said -1%, but transitory...but "nothing" surely doesn't pass the sniff-test (to quote Gudgen on Springford's Doppelgangers /2
Mar 22 4 tweets 2 min read
Graham Gudgin says that @JohnSpringford "doppelganger" method of analysing Brexit is a "statistical artefact" -- one that is used by Office of Budget Responsibility in their March 2023 forecast.… == see p.47 Gudgin concludes that Brexit has had no real impact on UK economy. And talk about Brexit masks real reason for productivity crunch. OBR, Bank of England, CER etc and BBC/FT that report these studies are distracting.
Feb 3 5 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨SO. David Davis tells @instituteforgov that Whitehall did a "cr*p job" of negotiating #Brexit...and then tells anecdote of ill-prepared @BorisJohnson making a "horlicks" of his contribution at Chequers. And you wonder where the problem was? 🤔/1… Was the problem "cr*p" civil servants who Davis says were too close to the EU and blinded by the fact that their EU interlocuters were "nice" to them...or was it witless and confused politicians, too lazy to do their homework (see Boris above) and too weak to face trade-offs?/2
Jan 17 4 tweets 4 min read
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨NEW estimate that ending free movement has led to a 330,000 short fall in UK labour market, with lower skilled sector hit hardest #Brexit via @ft @jdportes @JohnSpringford @CER_EU @UKandEU /1 As @jdportes says, this change will have “profound” impact on UK labour market. Some will win, others lose. @JohnSpringford sees combo of “higher wages and prices and less output” in sectors that can’t automate /2
Jan 10 8 tweets 3 min read
Credit to Sunak and @chhcalling, they have definitely shifted the mood with Brussels on NI Protocol negotiations. Officials say an agreement on data sharing looks likely to pave way to "substantive discussions" (??🚨Tunnel claxon🚨??) on outstanding issues. All that said.../1 Both sides are talking about a "step by step" approach and expecations of a "big bang" deal, as @tconnellyRTE reported yesterday are reasonably low, certainly before the Jan 19 deadline for fresh elections in Northern Ireland /2
Dec 22, 2022 9 tweets 6 min read
🚨🚨damning @britishchambers report into EU-UK trade deal two years after Brexit finds businesses facing “structural” challenges because of low-ambition trade deal struck by @BorisJohnson @DavidGHFrost and govt doing little about it /1 You will recall @BorisJohnson saying the deal created no “non-tariff barriers to trade” but that’s not what UK small businesses are finding as they grapple with rules of origin, import VAT, import licenses for cosmetics, export health certs etc /2…
Dec 13, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
🚨🚨NEW: City and academia raise red flag over planned Home Office “foreign influence” register — OK idea, just terribly executed. Risks chilling investment and collaboration because far too broad and poorly drafted - via @ft /1 The @TheCityUK is demanding meeting with @TomTugendhat warning the scheme needs to be better designed or risk inadvertently criminalising and deterring legitimate interactions. /2
Dec 6, 2022 7 tweets 4 min read
Dispiriting that Levelling Up dept is still brazenly saying UK Shared Prosperity Fund (post-#Brexit replacement for EU structural funds) "matches" EU funding in England. It doesn't. I've seen the spreadsheet that says as I reported in April/1… This is NOT about that weaselly argument that LUP dept has been using that money that was being disbursed from the final years of the last EU funding (21/22 and 22/23) round "counts" as "matching" EU money before it "ramps up" in 24/25 .../2
Nov 30, 2022 8 tweets 6 min read
What happens when you cut a super low-ambition trade deal with by-far your largest trade partner? Here @ChrisGiles_ provides insight in four key #Brexit charts: a less open economy, reduced trade, slower growth and business investment via @FT /1… ImageImageImageImage Some of you may recall @DavidGHFrost in early 2020 as negotiations for the TCA were starting saying he believed non-tariff barriers to trade were "exaggerated"...and seems to have done a barebones FTA on that basis. Two years on.../2… ImageImage
Nov 27, 2022 9 tweets 6 min read
What happens when #COVID19 lands on a public sector already stretched tight as a drum by Osborne austerity…Backlog Britain,
is what.

So with @FT data science colleagues @federicacocco @olihawkins we tell the story in charts to make you blanche…/1 NHS…7mn waiting for elective treatments. Only 60% hitting target for cancer referrals/2
Nov 20, 2022 7 tweets 5 min read
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🍒🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨Morning. We're moving back to Switzerland it seems. No doubt it'll all go like clockwork. If you want good primer/backgrounder this from @SarahMOverton via @UmKandEU is excellent.

CCing @RishiSunak @Jeremy_Hunt for info! /1… This all stems from this michievous @cazjwheeler story in Sunday Times. Sourcing unclear but obviously it's an antidote to some of the dafter "Brexit isnt making us poorer", stuff that senior ministers are cornered into all the time these days. /2…
Nov 16, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read
Spanish trade minister in London. Notes recovery of Spanish exports to UK after pandemic but warns it is “weaker than with other trade partners” because of #Brexit and…”huge concern” over plans to scrap EU-derived law by 2023 and “movement of people” — ⁦@GregHands⁩ here/1 So UK trade minister @GregHands replies…noted he’s “twice” been in the role…to titters in the room. Instability of UK politics is recurring theme of fringe discussions here. /2
Nov 11, 2022 7 tweets 4 min read
Has there ever been a piece of legislation that has been so horribly rinsed as @DominicRaab Bill of Rights...or Bill of Wrongs, as you might call it?

It's biggest problem is doesn't do what Raab promises it will do -- stay with me/1… Raab says it will “make crystal clear that the UK Supreme Court is not subordinate to the European Court of Human Rights” -- which is lapped up by the Sun and others as green-lighting the govt's Rwanda plan that has been stalled by ECHR /2… Image
Nov 5, 2022 20 tweets 10 min read
🚨🐟🐟🌱🌱🚨Why are the UK's rivers in such a poor state? Here's a pollution story about East Midlands Airport @EMA_Airport and the Environment Agency @EnvAgency that helps to explain it. I think it will surprise you. Stay with me./1… It starts on the banks of the River Trent at Castle Donington near Derby. One of the UK's best coarse fishing spots. But also where @EMA_Airport -- a freeport and fast-growing cargo hub -- discharges surface water from its runways into the river./2
Oct 31, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨post-Brexit red tape latest: UK farmers say exports will be hit by post-#Brexit regulation. Meat industry accuses @DefraGovUK of gold-plating EU export regs to a point where there aren’t enough vets to comply/1

My latest for @ft. “We believe it will have an immediate impact on livestock prices here in the UK as well as causing significant and costly disruption for the supply chain,” write the groups here including @NFUtweets @BMPA_INFO (full list below) /2…
Oct 12, 2022 10 tweets 5 min read
Big UK regulators (CMA, HSE, FSA) are struggling to adapt to post-Brexit roles, say MPs’ report, adding cost to business and risk to consumers. Some amazing nuggets here. Stay with me briefly….via @FT/1 The overarching point here is that — contrary to #brexit narrative and @trussliz conference speech, Brexit is not stripping away red tape. It’s adding to it. Substantially. /2
Oct 11, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
Worth recalling that in October 2019 when Frost renegotiated the Protocol there wasn’t a peep about the ECJ and governance. On the contrary…stay with me briefly/1 Back then Frost accepted that a zone where NI was in EU single market for good the ECJ writ would apply…see his Explanatory Note to that attempted reset/2…
Oct 7, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read
🚨NEW Liz Truss’s flagship investment zones are a multi-billion £££ tax liability, Treasury fears, as it seeks to limit numbers of IZs — my latest with ⁦@GeorgeWParker⁩ & ⁦@JenWilliams_FT⁩ via @FT /1 Per Whitehall insiders, during pre-Budget discussion HMT warned that 40 of the zones could cost £12bn in foregone taxes, and tried to cap the number of zones...HMT now says it doesn’t think policy will cost that much. But../2 Image
Oct 3, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read
🚨🚨Farming and conservation groups call on @KemiBadenoch to guarantee a "level playing field" when doing international trade deals, and not to repeat "one-sided" Australia trade deal...@Minette_Batters @GreenerUK_ @RSPCA_official @wwf_uk +7 others /1… You can read whole letter here, but essentially it's demanding that UK doesn't open markets to products made with lower standards that signatories say would be "illegal" in the UK /2…
Sep 23, 2022 6 tweets 7 min read
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨The #Brexit "Freedoms" Bills is raising significant concerns:
- deregulation by stealth because of 31.12.23 sunset clause
- massive waste of Whitehall bandwidth
- chaotic implications for courts, if case law precedents junked

Via @ft /1… @FT Do read @GeorgePeretzKC thread here for legal expertise...

but Michael Ford KC also makes point to me that courts basically being give carte blanche to junk retained case law. Points to S7(4) /2
Sep 7, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Interesting story. Industries that would never have grown so big without freedom of movement (fruit growing for EG) now reshaping.

"‘Cucumber capital’ growers selling up as #Brexit and energy crisis hits Britain’s vegetable industry."/1… Not saying necessarily that's a good bad thing.

Bad perhaps if you own/love the business (tho you might benefit from selling land for housing)...not clear whether good/bad for UK prices as we (presumably) import more. /2