Thread by @39Magilla

(1) @nytimes Excess Deaths Analysis Update:
Based on CDC "Weekly Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes" dataset updated August 19th, 2020

Undercount was +62,000 deaths, when 161,882 were reported (+38.3%).

Current reported deaths: 174,361

Actual deaths: 236,361-241,139

(2) Undercounts for the 4 Largest States and Arizona:

Reported + Undercount = Actual:

CA: 11,802 + 6,100 = 17,902
TX: 11,252 + 8,700 = 19,952
FL: 10,167 + 5,300 = 15,467
NY: 32,451 + 9,400 = 41,851
AZ: 4,692 + 3,000 = 7,692

TOTAL: 70,364 + 32,500 = 102,864

(3) The @nytimes 38.9% Undercount Estimate is very close to my regression line's 41.3%.

(4) CDC Excess Deaths Analysis Update:
Based on CDC "Weekly Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes" dataset updated August 19th, 2020

Undercount was +78,932 deaths, when 156,798 were reported (+50.3%).

Current reported deaths: 174,361

Actual deaths: 253,293-262,065

(5) CDC v. NYT Undercounts for the 4 Largest States and Arizona:

(6) As usual, the CDC Estimate is higher than that of the @nytimes:

CDC calculates a +50.5% undercount, the NY Times +38.3%.

My estimates have agreed more with the NY Times.

(7) 8/19/2020 Excess Deaths Update - Summary:

NYT Reported Deaths: 174,361

NYT Estimated Actual Deaths: 238,000
CDC Estimated Actual Deaths: 257,000

We may have reached a quarter of a million deaths via COVID-19.

Credits and References:

Data.CDC.gov
@nytimes

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-De…

cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…

(9) PS: Another way to understand the depth of our losses:

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1296826882785247236

(10) Continued:

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1296773097249558528