Thread by @NickyNaus

A few thoughts (thread) on the upcoming lightning event in California. All models are showing the potential for at least isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in central/northern California, which is obviously not good news given the number of fires already ongoing #CAwx #CAfire

The first wave (tonight-Sunday) appears a little weak and with the upper-level ridging in place, storms are going to be near the coast and track more offshore. But the second wave (Sunday night - Monday), breaks down the ridge and strong southerly develops over California #CAwx

Here is the NSSL-WRF forecast composite reflectivity (essentially what the radar may look like) for the next 48 hours. Chance of lightning tonight and Sunday afternoon. But stronger storms and more coverage Sunday night through Monday #CAwx

And here is the HRRR solution for valid from 5pm PDT through 5 am PDT on Monday #CAwx

And the high-resolution NAM solution through 5 am PDT on Tuesday #CAwx

While some of the sounding profiles have skinny CAPE aloft, it is moist aloft due to Genevieve's remnants which could strengthen typically weak updrafts associated with skinny CAPE. Additionally, there are a pool of steeper mid-level lapse rates hanging out over California #Cawx

Drier lower-levels, storm motions of 25-45 mph, and any help from daytime heating and upslope flow will increase coverage/density of lightning across central and northern California over the next 72 hours. Lifting associated with the upper-level waves will help too #CAwx #CAfire

Looks like another significant lightning event is about to unfold across central and northern California. While there are possible failure modes that could bust the forecast, there is more evidence indicating scattered to widespread drier storms across the region #CA #CAfire

Hundreds of new fires are likely if this event pans out. And thunderstorm outflow winds will impact some ongoing fires which would lead to an increase of fire spread/behavior. I hope I'm wrong and this forecast busts. But for now, data points to another big event #CAwx #CAfire

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