I think the three big takeaways are: 1. That's likely Kangson. It *is* an enrichment plant. 2. The centrifuges are more advanced than the ones Hecker described in 2010. 3. KCNA did not to show the plant staff or the control room. Someone read about STUXNET.
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As @ColinZwirko reported, the @JamesMartinCNS OSINT team concluded last night that this facility was most likely the presumed uranium enrichment plant at Kangson. I spent the morning quadruple-checking. I think they're right. nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Here is the team's reasoning. North Korea released 5 images -- 4 inside the "big" hall and 1 inside the annex that @ColinZwirko first noticed under construction in March of this year. nknews.org/pro/north-kore…
Our friends at @planet have a really nice series of images of the "Typhon" missile launchers that the US has temporarily deployed in the Philippines. A couple of observations.
The Mid-Range Capability (MRC) or "Typhon" (named after a Greek giant just to please @tomkarako) is a @USArmy missile system capable of launching the ~500 km-range SM-6 and the ~2000 km-range Tomahawk missiles. There is a nice CRS report on the system. crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF…
@tomkarako @USArmy The deployment of the system to the Philippines is temporary and coincides with a series of US-RP military exercises. US officials, however, have avoided specifying how long "temporary" will be. usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-…
Russia conducted an exercise in which it practiced starting a nuclear war. A short thread. iz.ru/1699925/2024-0…
We get to see a convoy of Iskander vehicles -- a very rare security vehicle, some transloaders, some containerized missiles (ballistic and cruise) and some support vehicles.
We also get to see what seems to be a warhead convoy, although we don't have great reference imagery. Still, we see a different, also very rare security vehicle and some mundane looking trucks, which isn't much but its what we'd expect for the 12 GUMO.
After the US transmogrified Qasem Soleimani into his final form as a a parade float, Iran conducted a big missile strike against a US airbase in Iraq. Miraculously, no one else died.Did a whole pod ep on it.
Some implications for this morning. Season 2, Episode 5: The Worst Case Scenario (Almost) middlebury.edu/deal-podcast
Iran was prepared for a significant escalatory response by the US -- so much so that a jumpy Tor SAM crew shot down a civilian airliner (PS752) taking off from Tehran International Airport, killing all 176 people on board. cnn.com/2023/04/17/mid…
The US minimized the impact of the strike -- correctly stating that no one was killed in strike and incorrectly claiming that no significant injuries (Traumatic brain injuries are not "headaches".) However, by not responding, the situation was allowed to deescalate. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
A quick summary on Iran's drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach Israel. Reminder, Iran is about 2000 km from Israel.
“Drones” usually means the Shahed-family of loitering munitions, like the -131/136 models that Iran exports to Russia. They are long-range, but only carry about 20 kg of explosives. (Not that I would want 20 kg of explosive dropped on my office, mind you.) dia.mil/Portals/110/Do…
IDF officials have said the attack “also includes cruise missiles and not just drones." While there isn’t a clear dividing line between the two, that likely means Iran is also firing what I'd call land-attack cruise missiles which can have a 1000 kg payload.
This is some amazing reporting, but I am unpersuaded by the framing. Russia's nuclear doctrine as described sounds exactly what official documents say it is. A short thread. ft.com/content/f18e6e…
In 2020, Putin signed a decree titled “Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence.” @AnyaFink translated it for CNA at the time. So, we can compare the @FT story with it. apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD115…
The story doesn't contain the documents nor does it quote them at length. So, we get a lot of vibes rather than block quotes. Still, compare these ¶s with the official policy of the Russian Federation. They seem substantially the same to me.