The big puzzle of EU banking is how much loan moratorium will translate into loan losses. Nationwide has useful disclosure on this, because they are the only (afaik) ones making a clear distinction between moratorium now expired or not and what happened to expired moratorium.
So what does it say?
On prime mortgages, only the moratoriums from March and April have expired, that's 99k mortgages. 86k of those have now resumed normal payments. Which means there are approx 13% of "deliquencies"
But there are different types of problems.
On prime mortgages, only the moratoriums from March and April have expired, that's 99k mortgages. 86k of those have now resumed normal payments. Which means there are approx 13% of "deliquencies"
But there are different types of problems.
On 8k mortgages, they have so-called partial payment plans agreed, which means foreborne exposure in the banking jargon. It's not good, but it's not bad as a default. For 5k exposures, they sought "further support", which is a nice way of saying borrowers can't pay.
So here you are, for UK mortgages, it looks like 13% of moratorium will end badly, 8% in restructuring and 5% in default. You can do the maths for other banks - but remember, Nationwide is a VERY conservative bank with a risk profile stronger than average.
On the Buy to Let segment, the stats look better with only 4.5% of "futher support", i.e. default - and no forebearance. So the default rate looks the same, but restructuring does not look like an option on that market.
A final important thing: as the following chart shows, payment holidays mostly happened in April and May. The stats we have are mostly for the April vintage (they expired). It remains to be seen if the May vintage behaves the same way (very partial data suggests it's worse) 
