Santiago Capital Profile picture
Aug 24, 2020 29 tweets 18 min read Read on X
Ok...anyone want to hear a story that nothing to do with dollars, gold or bank reserves?
No...?
Well too bad...
Because this week is the 30th anniversary of one of the top 5 moments of my life.
And I'm feeling old.
And sentimental.
So...
I grew up in a small town of 1,000 people on the edge of the sandhills in western Nebraska. Many of my friends came from families that were farmers or ranchers. And everybody loved football.
I did too. As a little kid I wanted to play quarterback for @HuskerFBNation (like Turner Gill) and then for the @steelers (like Terry Bradshaw).
Every day at recess we played football.
And every play was a Hail Mary pass...
But I was very tall.
And I was very skinny.
I broke my left arm playing football in 5th grade (1982).
I broke my right arm playing football in 8th grade (1985).
And I decided that was the end of my football career...
That's when I decided to focus on Basketball.
(nice way of saying "became obsessed with".)
It was the 1st thing I thought of when I woke up in the morning & last thing I thought of before falling asleep. It was the peak of the @Lakers vs @celtics & the @NBA was easy to love.
But in college, the @Huskers weren't known for basketball. But @KUAthletics was.
I had family in Kansas & thought the Jayhawk mascot was far & away the best mascot in college sports.
So as an 8th grader with a broken arm, I decided I was going to play basketball for Kansas. Image
The problem was everyone in my family from NE liked the @Huskers & everyone in my family from KS like @KState.
No one could understand why I liked KU.
This may have been my first entree into being a contrarian. Although at the time I was labeled the less flattering "Blacksheep". Image
But that problem was minor compared to the other one.
Namely that @KUHoops was one of the best teams in the country. That year (1985/1986) they made the @FinalFour. Which made me want to play there even more. But also meant the likelihood of me doing so was pretty low...
@CoachBillSelf was then an assistant.
The team was led by Super Sophomore @CoachDManning. His teammates included future pro players Ron Kellog (from NE, there was hope!), Greg Dreiling, Milt Newtown & Calvin Thompson. There was also a little guard by the name of @CoachTurgeon⬇️ Image
They lost to @DukeMBB in the semis that yr.
Legend says it was because they wore these red uniforms rather than traditional blue. It was a crushing defeat and I think I felt as bad as they did...

(p.s. they didn't wear red jerseys again for over 20 yrs) Image
2 yrs later they were back in the @FinalFour.
It was surprising for most bc they lost several games that year & had only a 6 seed in the tournament.
But the Super Sophomore from '86 was now a senior & the best player in the country. Incredibly, "Danny & the Miracles" won it all!
That small guard from '86 (@CoachTurgeon) was no longer a player, he was now an assistant coach.
He'd come from a small high school but made KU varsity, was its 1st player history to play in 4 straight NCAA tourneys & is still 1 of the all time leaders in assists.
Pretty cool... Image
But in '88 another guard had taken his place.
@PacersKev was one of the "miracles" to play alongside @CoachDManning. Danny got the glory that night (deservedly so!) but Kevin also had an amazing championship game against @OU_MBBall.
He was fearless! ImageImage
It's now late winter of 1990.
I'm in homestretch of a very good 4 yr run of high school basketball. All Conference, All State & I've received a number of scholarships from small schools in the midwest. But surprisingly (😅) I'd not yet heard from @UCLA @Cuse_MBB or @KUHoops
I desperately wanted to play Division 1 basketball.
So what to do?
I thought about walking on to the @HuskerHoops team.
I knew some of the coaches.
They were "open" (🤣) to the idea.
But there were no guarantees.
And then I found out that @KUHoops had a Junior Varsity team...
@CoachTurgeon was an assistant Varsity coach but head Junior Varsity coach. I mailed him a highlight reel of my greatest plays (mostly shooting). A few weeks later I called him. Surprisingly he answered & said I may actually have a shot (this was before he saw me play defense🤦‍♂️)
I was so starstruck by getting to talk to him its very possible he said the exact opposite.
Whatever the case, it was now time to tell my parents that I was going to KU & would need to pay out of state tuition instead of me going on scholarship to a smaller school.
My dad ⬇️
So it's now the 1st week of college & I go see Turg.
He says even though I havent officially made the JV team yet (there would be tryouts) it was ok if I scrimmaged with some of the guys in the afternoons after class.
I asked where they played.
His answer?
"Allen Fieldhouse"
Me⬇️
For those who don't know, Allen Fieldhouse is one of the biggest Cathedrals in the world of basketball.
They get sellout crowds.
For the first PRACTICE of the year.
At MIDNIGHT.
If you ever get the opportunity to attend a game there & you don't do it...you are, in short, a moron. Image
So now now it's a hot humid summer afternoon in Lawrence. I walk into AFH. I see a bunch of guys sitting around lacing up their shoes. They all seem to know each other & are all kind of huddled around one guy in the center of it all. He's telling stories & they are all listening. Image
Guess who the guy is?
That's right...it's @PacersKev
He'd been drafted by the @warriors a few months earlier but was still in Lawrence preparing for training camp.
I can't remember how I introduced myself.
But I remember what happened a few moments later with perfect clarity... Image
Gametime!
And somehow...the skinny kid from Nebraska...who had just walked into Allen Fieldhouse for the first time...was assigned to guard the guy who had won @marchmadness 2 yrs prior and was now getting ready to go play in the @NBA...
This is not a story that ends well...
I didnt belong on the same court.
On TV he had seemed like a solid scrappy player.
But in real life, he was the fastest guy on the court & had what must have been a 40 inch vertical leap.
He absolutely KILLED me.
It was like Shaq vs Dudley...
A few games later he was dribbling up court.
I was so tired I could hardly stand.
But the next moment for me is frozen in time.
I can smell the air.
I can feel the heat.
I can see the sun streaming in the windows.
I looked up & saw the banners I'd seen on TV so many times before. Image
And I just smiled.
I was competing against someone I thought of as a super hero (based on how high he was jumping he might as well have been one) in a venue that was better than any movie set. I was in way over my head. But in over my head was where I had always wanted to be...
I played for @CoachTurgeon for 2 yrs.
He may very well be the most competitive & intense person I have ever met. With his unique way of both complimenting & crushing me in the same sentence, he made me much more confident & tough than I ever could have hoped.
Thanks coach!
I never made Varsity but I played with a bunch of guys like me who loved basketball & wanted nothing more than to be a Jayhawk. I fell a bit short of the ultimate goal but it was still a dream come true. And I will never ever forget that moment guarding Kevin in Allen Fieldhouse. Image
It's been said you should never meet your heroes.
But that's Bullshit.
Take Risks.
Follow your dreams.
Do everything in your power to meet your heroes.
The worst that can happen is 30 yrs from now you will have a memorable story to tell.
Even if you are the only one who cares...

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More from @SantiagoAuFund

May 17
Getting a lot of push back for "shorting silver" this morning. Reasons range from accomodative monetary authorites, a bullish chart, a move above its 5 year high, and the inevitable death of fiat.

So, a thread on my process that led to this decision. 👇
First, I didn't "short silver".
I bought puts on a silver derivative.
Which means I have a defined amount of risk.
I know my max loss whether silver rises 1% from here or 1,000% from here. And IMO the upside of this trade is decent considering the defined downside.
Second, I'm not "all in" on this.
Just a short term tactial trade as part of a diversified overall portfolio. And as part of overall portfolio am long gold. Won't get rich if right & I wont get rekt if wrong.
So why do it?
Bc its part of my job.
Why now?
The process says...
Read 21 tweets
Oct 20, 2023
OK, potential mea culpa time.
Ive now had 2 phone calls as well as email correspondence with US Treausury Dept about TIC data regarding what it does & does not show.
Long story short, its a bit confusing bc they recently changed methodology and may change it...again.
1/
In thread below I will share what Ive learned.
U are then free to make up your own mind as to what info is saying & what it means for markets.
The debate started a few months ago when charts of UST holdings by China started making the rounds.
TIC is the source for the chart
2/ Image
TIC data is based on CURRENT MARKET VALUE of CURRENT HOLDINGS at the end of period. Meaning it reflects purchases, sales & CHANGE IN VALUATION. This has been confirmed by UST department in person and in writing. Also, see footnotes on TIC data reports below.
3/
Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 8, 2023
Much has been made of the recent Fed rake hiking cycle as well as the coinciding collapse in long term UST Bond prices. I thought I'd do a short thread in order to help those who seek a better understanding of what is going on & whether "It's different this time."
Enjoy...
1/
Lets take look at historical hiking cycles.
Since late 70s, have been 7 cycles.
Chart shown below.
Absolute value right hand axis.
% growth shown on chart
(numbers approximate).

77-81 (290%)
83-84 (40%)
87-89 (60%)
94-95 (100%)
04-07 (400%)
15-18 (900%)
22-23 (2000%)

2/ Image
Here we see rate hiking cylcles with price of Long Term UST price overlaid.
We see both over long term, as well as during short term cycles, the UST price has tended to have an inverse correlation to rate hikes.
This is Bond 101.
As rates rise/fall, bond prices fall/rise.

3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
May 6, 2023
Which does a government hate more?
What is more likely to lead to deflation?
What is more likely to lead to a currency strengthening?
Read 5 tweets
Mar 26, 2023
For anyone who thinks I haven't done my research, I'm posting a paper I wrote on Bitcoin several years ago.

It is now somewhat dated but please feel free to tell me where I have it wrong or which part I "just don't get".

1/
2/
3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 1, 2023
A thread...

I started in this business almost 25 (!) years ago.
In that time, I have transitioned through the .com boom/bust, Sept 11, the RE boom/subsequent GFC, the Euro sovereign crisis, the '18 volmageddon, the '19 repo crisis, the Covid crisis & the '22 Fed hiking cycle.
1/
Safe to say Ive seen many separate episodes of both panic & euphoria. Sometimes right on heels of each other. Despite all of that, I've never seen a more uncertain time than right now. This is long way of saying if someone says they know for certain what comes next...
2/
This is also why I am always a bit surprised when I talk to someone who is a devoted member of some monolithic inflation, deflation, gold, fiat, crypto, hegemonic surpremacy, or global south tribe.
3/
Read 19 tweets

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