Santiago Capital Profile picture
aka #MilkshakeMan You either believe in magic or you believe in math. If you believe in math, buy gold... (and dollars) NOT TRADING ADVICE
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Apr 16 18 tweets 8 min read
At this point most of those operating in, or following the world of global finance, have seen some version of this "Chart of Truth" (@RaoulGMI) where the US 10Yr yield has poked its head above the top of its 40 year channel.

Where it goes from here, I don't know... What I do know is that this is not a uniquely American issue. The whole world is dealing with funding costs rising. Germany, Canada, Australia...for god's sake even Japanese rates are rising...
Mar 6 8 tweets 2 min read
So let me get this straight:
Russia is going to be fine bc they have huge natural resources. And due to sanctions natural resources prices are going to rise. So they can now sell all these commodities at higher prices.
1/
Meanwhile, China's two most important imports are energy and food. The are so important China has spent years negotiating low cost access to these commodities.
And now, due to Covid, supply chains & geopolitical conflict, these import prices are rising quickly.
2/
Feb 27 10 tweets 2 min read
When a system de-levers, the asset that underlies the system rises in value.
If the asset that underlies the system falls, there is no need to de-lever. Like it or not, USD is the underlying asset for the entire global monetary system. And due to opaqueness of the Eurodollar market, the system is levered to greater degree than many think possible. This is proven by the fact the system still exists, for it must grow to survive.
Jan 14 16 tweets 7 min read
Can't go a day without someone saying Russia going to invade Ukraine and nothing the Biden admin can do to stop it.
And the media is happy to paint the situation as an evil attempt on Putins part to take over a sovereign nation despite US's own record. Whatever you think of Putin, I hope we can all agree he is not a stupid person. Like him or hate him, he has been an extremely effective leader. And has probably played the hand he was dealt better than any of his peers. And even the f'ing birds respect him.
Oct 8, 2021 25 tweets 12 min read
#AWallStreetStory
When I moved to NY in the late 90s I often took the subway bc I didn’t have money to ride around in cabs and town cars all the time. So the 6 Train doubled as my limousine and Grand Central Station doubled as my garage. In May 1999 I was fortunate to be hired by Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette for their Wall Street training program. This was very convenient because the DLJ offices were just two blocks from my garage.
#277ParkAvenue
Jul 25, 2021 8 tweets 1 min read
If China bails out the US by proving PPE bc we don’t make enough masks, ventilators and other protective equipment ourselves, who has the upper hand in that scenario? If China bails out Bangladesh bc they borrowed too much money and are now in Default, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
Feb 14, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read
For anyone who is interested...or anyone who just thinks I don't understand, am going to get rekt, need to do research or want to have fun staying poor...here is the white paper I wrote on #Bitcoin a few years ago.

1/ 2/
Feb 10, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read
Two definitions of money, both faith based:

1. The most marketable commodity (the most marketable bc have faith based on its history that it will retain its value)

2. That which the Gov demands in tribute (you have faith if don’t pay your taxes in it the gov will jail you)

1/ One can argue that #2 above...actually leads to Govs fiat money becoming #1 above.

Regardless, all money is ultimately faith based. At their core, they are confidence games.

Once the confidence is gone, regardless of the reason, so is the value of the money/currency.

2/
Aug 30, 2020 25 tweets 11 min read
Hi everyone.
Based on recent comments/twitter posts/interviews...my email, vm, dm & twitter stream have been inundated with questions about, & challenges to, my assertions regarding QE being "deflationary" rather than "inflationary"

1/ Many extremely smart & successful people (many of whom I like & respect) disagree with me.

Vehemently.

As such, I have been asked for "Proof" or my "Source" to back up my assertions.

The "Smoking Gun" per se...

I'll attempt to answer this as clearly as possible below

2/
Aug 24, 2020 29 tweets 18 min read
Ok...anyone want to hear a story that nothing to do with dollars, gold or bank reserves?
No...?
Well too bad...
Because this week is the 30th anniversary of one of the top 5 moments of my life.
And I'm feeling old.
And sentimental.
So... I grew up in a small town of 1,000 people on the edge of the sandhills in western Nebraska. Many of my friends came from families that were farmers or ranchers. And everybody loved football.
Jun 8, 2020 23 tweets 10 min read
Hi All. With recent market action in equities and dollar, I have had several questions regarding...messages in support of...and challenges to (shocking, I know)...my outlook.

In order to try and provide some clarity...this thread will need to suffice for now.

1/ Long story short, the fall in Q1 & subsequent rally we've seen in last 3 months in equities is NOT due to the core part of my thesis. It IS part of "moments of great terror & disbelief along the way" part of thesis...but not how I envision equities moving to all time highs.
2/
May 3, 2020 9 tweets 5 min read
Like many others, I watched the interview with @RaoulGMI and @hendry_hugh with great interest.

If you work in macro and don’t find a convo between these two interesting you should probably find a different line of work 😅

1/ One of the parts I found most interesting was Hugh bringing up Princes of the Yen.
It’s a great book by @scientificecon and summarized well in this video.

2/

Mar 10, 2020 11 tweets 2 min read
I’ve answered this many times before and will attempt to do so (somewhat briefly again now).
The milkshake theory basically says there is a supply/demand mismatch with regard to dollars in the world. My argument has been that this fact, along with others such as the institutionalized effect of the GRC, the design of the dollar payment system, the US military and the largest & deepest capital markets on earth will drive capital flows to the US over next few years.
Feb 21, 2020 10 tweets 3 min read
With gold, dollar, bonds and equities all up...have received several messages/questions regarding the Dollar Milkshake theory.
But have been out of office for last few days so have been somewhat slow to answer... The most common question I have received is some form of...

“How much longer can this dollar run last...?”
Feb 15, 2020 25 tweets 7 min read
Many of you have already heard my #Dollar Milkshake Theory.

In fact...I'm pretty sure many (most?) are SICK of hearing about it...

😅😅😅 And some of you may have heard me use three different movies to help explain why the magic trick of sucking up capital from around the world while the dollar kurgan simultaneously cuts the heads off the competition...
Feb 6, 2020 13 tweets 5 min read
Considering all that's going on the world as a result of the knock on effects from slowing growth & the corona virus...
I'm surprised I haven't heard more about the effects on #Bitcoin other than idea it would push Bitcoin higher as as result of flight to safety & store of value. But was talking with my buddy @brucedkleinman and as a result can't help but wonder...isn't there a lot more to this story?

Are there only POSITIVE knock on effects?

No potential NEGATIVE knock on effects?
Jun 27, 2019 15 tweets 5 min read
1
I would like to share some ideas about Cause & Effect as it relates to why I think the dollar is going higher because in my opinion many get these two mixed up. Cause...is the action. And Effect is the resulting reaction to that action. 2
When demand for a commodity (in this case the dollar) is higher than the available supply, price rises. If supply outstrips demand, the commodity (dollar) falls.
Jun 23, 2019 17 tweets 4 min read
1
The biggest challenges I get to stronger dollar theme revolve around the huge amount of debt & unfunded liabilties we have. This is a valid point. I agree we will never be able to pay off. So its devalue or default. History shows devalue is typical method employed. So lower $. 2
But this is the endgame. Not the path. The issue is that all other fiat currencies are in the same mess. So much so that they are still doing QE and have moved rates to NEGATIVE during the time that US stopped cuts, stopped QE and raised rates 9 times.
Jun 20, 2019 19 tweets 6 min read
1
I've received several (SEVERAL 😅) emails, texts, DMs etc over the last 24 hours asking me if I'm ready to throw in the towel on the strong #dollar thesis and admit I was wrong on #gold because it is "clearly breaking out now" (and I said it was not yet ready to do so). 2
So I thought I'd write a thread so I can answer everyone at once.
First of all, nothing has been definitively proven one way or the other yet on either gold or the dollar.
Second of all, if you think being wrong is something I'm not capable of handling, I assure you I am.
Aug 2, 2018 26 tweets 6 min read
Bought a lot of #gold today. Going home now because I think I might throw up. Gold vs Commercial Short position with Daily Sentiment (DSI) indicated in red. I'm estimating real time commercial shorts are now less than 50k (green box) and maybe even lower.