Many people claim that China lied about the outbreak of Wuhan and is responsible for the human and economic damages caused by the pandemic, but is this view actually supported by the evidence? (Spoiler: not really.)
I looked into this very carefully and, in a four-part essay published on @Quillette, I argue that, while there is a grain of truth to some of those accusations, they are mostly nonsense. The first part of the series has just been published. quillette.com/2020/08/24/the…
I know that many of you are convinced the accusations are true, but I hope you will read and share this essay anyway, because I really think you're wrong and I'm pretty sure it will change your mind on at least *some* things.
As I painstakingly argue in the essay, because they don't like the CCP (neither do I), people often draw nonsensical inferences, when in fact there are usually far more plausible explanations for what they see as proof of China's malfeasance.
I also document several cases of downright anti-China propaganda on the part of Western media/governments. Many widely repeated claims are based on clear misinterpretations of the evidence or, in some cases, on bald-faced lies and manipulations.
To be clear, that is not to say that China is entirely blameless. It did lie on some things and there was plenty of incompetence in Wuhan early on, but we've seen far worse in the US and other Western countries and it shouldn't be used as a scapegoat.
I will also post a longer, less polished version on my blog as Quillette publishes the series, because we decided to leave out some technical to keep the essay readable by a general audience but some of you will probably be interested in those details. necpluribusimpar.net/did-china-lie-…
Again, I know that many of you are skeptical, but this essay has required a ridiculous amount of work and I'm really confident about the conclusions I reach, so I hope you will read it with an open-mind. I will post the other parts in this thread as they are published.
The second part of my essay on the role of China in the pandemic has been published. In this part, I examine how and when human-to-human transmission was ascertained by the Chinese authorities. quillette.com/2020/08/29/the…
The Chinese authorities have been accused of knowing that sustained human-to-human transmission was occurring for weeks before they finally admitted it. However, after carefully reviewing the evidence, I conclude that this accusation is mostly baseless.
It's true that, for about a week before January 20 (when they admitted sustained human-to-human transmission was occurring), the Chinese authorities minimized that possibility, even though they knew it was likely.
But they likely didn't know before that and, even in mid-January, it wasn't clear to them exactly how easily the virus could transmit from person to person. I argue that accusations to the contrary are based on flawed reasoning.
However, in some cases, it wasn't just poor reasoning. I also document cases in which the media and/or governments like Taiwan peddled downright lies to make people believe that China had known for weeks that sustained human-to-human transmission was occurring.
Finally, I argue that even if China suppressed information about the virus for a while in January, we can't hold it responsible for the pandemic, let alone blame the botched response in the West on this.
Again I'm also posting a less polished, more technical version of this essay on my blog. So far, the differences are minimal, but this will change when I discuss the origins of the virus in part 3, since technical details will be relegated to the blog. necpluribusimpar.net/did-china-lie-…
Part 3 of my essay was just published on @Quillette. In this part, I discuss the origins of the virus. I argue that it likely didn't originate from Huanan Seafood Market, that it evolved naturally and that it probably didn't accidentally escape from a lab. quillette.com/2020/09/02/the…
Again, I published a longer, more detailed but less polished version on my blog. Part 3 on my blog examines whether China can be held responsible for the pandemic and its consequences, as well as whether the virus originated from Huanan Seafood Market. necpluribusimpar.net/did-china-lie-…
In part 4 on my blog, I examine different versions of the lab escape theory and various arguments that have been offered to support each of them, which I find unconvincing and in some cases downright confused. necpluribusimpar.net/did-china-lie-…
The discussion is a bit technical at times, so we removed the most difficult parts from the version published on Quillette, while including links to the relevant sections on my blog for the people who are interested in that kind of details.
In particular, I refute the Bayesian argument to the effect that, since SARS-CoV-2 just happened to have emerged in Wuhan, one of the few cities that has a lab where people study bat coronaviruses, the outbreak is unlikely to be unrelated to that lab and probably escaped from it.
The fourth and last part of my essay on China's role in the COVID-19 pandemic has been published. In this part, I discuss whether, as many people claim, China fudged its numbers about the epidemic and conclude that it likely didn't. quillette.com/2020/09/06/the…
That is not to say that China's official data are perfectly accurate. As I also explain, they are not doubt very imperfect, but for the most part it's for the same kind of reasons data have been very low quality pretty much everywhere, not because China deliberately fudged them.
The main approach I have used consists in asking this question: suppose that I gave you an "anonymized" dataset about the pandemic in different countries and asked you which country is most likely to have manipulated its data, would you pick China? The answer is no.
I also respond to various arguments to the effect that China manipulated the data and show they are totally unconvincing. As with the lab escape theory, there are so many I couldn't discuss all of them, so I focused on the most popular and/or less nonsensical ones.
Again, I published a less polished, slightly more technical version on my blog. The code I used for my analysis of the data has also been uploaded on GitHub and you can find a link to the repository in the article. necpluribusimpar.net/did-china-lie-…
This concludes my series. I like to think it's pretty convincing, but I'm under no delusion it will convince many people. I think that, *at the very least*, it should convince a rational person that many of the arguments that have been made for months against China are garbage 🤷♂️
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