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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Philippe Lemoine
@phl43
Technically a philosopher, who hopefully will finish his PhD one day. I write on Substack and @CSPICenterOrg. "At least he's pretty smart." (@bechhof)
A. S. Profile picture Campion1581 Profile picture Happy Warrior Profile picture Henry Scuoteguazza Profile picture Potato Of Reason Profile picture 7 subscribed
Jul 16 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
We're at the point in France where, in most large cities, immigrants are responsible for between 1/3 and 1/2 of reported crime or even more than that, but there are people seriously explaining that Science has demonstrated immigration has no causal effect on crime because a paper using a shift-share instrument in Italy on data that are 20 years old found no statistically significant effect 🙃 We are truly reaching level of midwittery previously thought unimaginable. It's really hilarious that those people don't understand that, when some groups are overrepresented in reported crime by a factor of e. g. 5, if a paper using sophisticated statistical jujutsu finds no effect the rational thing is not to believe the paper.
Jul 6 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
Les instituts de sondage font des projections assez différentes, mais elles mettent toutes le RN beaucoup plus bas que mon modèle. Qu'est-ce qui explique cela ? Je voudrais explorer cette question, car je pense que ça éclaire les enjeux de la modélisation du second tour 🧵


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Image Quand je modélise la probabilité de victoire au second tour en 2022 des candidats RN en fonction de leur avance ou retard au premier tour, lisez le tweet cité plus haut et le fil dans lequel j'explique la méthodologie pour comprendre ce que je fais exactement, ça donne ça. Image
Jul 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Avec les résultats du premier tour, le modèle donne ça :
- RN et LR-Ciotti : 274 (263 - 284)
- NFP : 126 (120 - 132)
- Ensemble : 102 (96 - 109)
- Divers Droite : 20 (17 - 23)
- LR et UDI : 19 (16 - 23)
- Divers Gauche : 15 (12 - 16)

Autrement dit on se dirige vers le chaos 🤷‍♂️
Image Encore une fois, c'est à prendre avec des pincettes, puisque c'est basé sur l'association entre les écart au premier tour entre les candidats qualifiés pour le second et la victoire au second en 2022, mais cette association pourrait être très différente cette fois-ci.
Jun 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
We're at the point where Serge Klarsfeld, the most famous French Nazi hunter (who also wrote a very important book about the role of France in the Holocaust), explains that if he has to choose between the far-left and Le Pen's party he'll vote for the latter "without hesitation". It's really hard to convey to a non-French person how revolutionary this is. If you had told that to someone 30 years ago, he would have thought you had completely lost your mind and laughed to your face.
May 22 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
So many Arabic speakers have reported that the translation was grossly inaccurate without anyone even trying to deny it that, at this point, I no longer have any doubt that it's true.

You can learn a lot about people's intellectual honesty or lack thereof by looking at who shares this video and doesn't take it down even after the issues with the translation have been pointed out to them. I've read all the community notes and checked dozens of replies to this tweet and others sharing the video, so I know some claim ISIS used the word to talk about sex slaves, but even if that's true that's not a defense of the translation since nobody is talking about pregnancy.
Jan 25 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A French journalist asked an IDF spokesman whether they still believed there was a Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital, pointing out that the evidence presented after the IDF seized it didn't match the original claims made by Israel.

He replied that it was "unacceptable" for "a democracy like yours to ask another democracy a question" and added that such a question was "extremely weird or even nauseating" (if you see what I mean).

The journalist was almost apologetic and tried to argued that it was normal practice, but the IDF spokesman was having none of it. For some reason I'm supposed to give those people the benefit of the doubt though 🤷‍♂️ In case you have forgotten, let me remind you what the IDF originally claimed was under al-Shifa Hospital.
Nov 22, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I have already retweeted this paper, but I'm doing it again because I think it's fascinating. It suggests that most of the differences in economic policy between mature developed economies that people constantly argue about are second-order relative to demography. To be clear, this does not mean that economic policy doesn't matter and couldn't make a substantial difference, because the range of variation in economic policy among mature developed economies is limited.
Oct 23, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
I'll probably write about this because it keeps coming up and there is a lot to say about the "offer" made at Camp David, starting with the fact that technically a comprehensive offer was never actually made, but for now here's what this amazing "offer" looked like in practice 🙃
Image First, if people are going to make this argument, then they should say that and not constantly repeat the talking point that Barak made a super-generous offer at Camp David. This is a lie.
Oct 2, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The mandatory reference to Munich and reductio at Chamberlain in foreign policy discussions is not just stupid because a comparison with the crisis over Czechoslovakia in 1938 almost never makes sense, but also because people have a very dumb understanding of that crisis. It's not that blaming European statesmen at the time is not appropriate, there is plenty of blame to go around in that episode, but people are always very selective in who they blame and thinking about the crisis primarily in moral terms prevents them from truly understanding it.
Sep 29, 2023 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
This stuff only saves lives *given current incentives*, but it affects incentives by making it more rational for people to get on those boats. If you want to save lives, as opposed to virtue signal, you should either lift restrictions on immigration or do what Australia does. Of course, the German Foreign Office isn't going to advocate lifting restrictions on immigration if only because it knows that's politically impossible, but it also doesn't want to push for Australia's solution for ideological reasons, so instead it virtue signals on Twitter 🤷‍♂️
Jul 13, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
In today's episode of "selection is everywhere", many people claim based on observational studies that naturalization improves the integration of immigrants, but this study based on a random lottery finds no effect on either economic and non-economic dimensions of integration 🧵


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Image The study finds no effect whether the effect is defined as intention-to-treat (ITT) or local average treatment effect (LATE), which are both potentially of interest depending on the question you're interested in.
Jul 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Heureusement la notion de « contenu haineux » n’est pas du tout vague et donc cette régulation ne présente aucun risque d’abus 🙃 Ces gens sont des dangers publics, non pas tant parce qu’ils sont malfaisants, mais parce que ce sont littéralement des abrutis.
Jul 6, 2023 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
"The far-right blames the riots on immigration, but only 10% of those arrested are foreigners while the other 90% are children or grandchildren of immigrants and were born in France, so clearly this has nothing to do with immigration. Look at me and how smart I am." Sometimes I understand better why articles in The Economist are anonymous. economist.com/europe/2023/07…
Jul 3, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
One can in fact criticize colonialism without ascribing collective guilt to Europeans and making up a parallel universe in which a backward Europe miraculously conquered most of the world despite the fact that it was much more advanced and became rich from the spoils. Someone just asked me "if the colonies were such a burden for France, then how come you fought so hard to keep them?" and, as per usual, the answer is that it was because people believed in stupid memes 🤷‍♂️
Jul 1, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
J'avais écrit ce fil après la mort de Samuel Paty, mais ce que j'y expliquais s'applique tout autant aux émeutes. Quand ce sera fini, on va nous parler d'éducation, de "plan banlieue", etc. mais tant qu'on ne réduira pas les flux d'immigration ce sera comme pisser dans un violon. Ce qui se passe est le résultat prévisible de l'augmentation de la concentration de plus en plus grande de gens issus de l'immigration africaine et maghrébine non qualifiée dans les zones urbaines françaises et ça n'ira qu'en empirant tant que cette immigration continuera 🤷‍♂️
Jun 19, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Cette étude est une vaste blague et les soi-disant défenseurs de la "science" qui la reprennent ne valent pas mieux que les mecs qui diffusaient des études bidons en faveur de l'hydroxychloroquine. Ce serait une énorme blague même s'ils avaient appliqué l'idée de base correctement, mais honnêtement je ne comprends même pas ce qu'ils ont fait et je crois que ça n'a mathématiquement aucun sens. ImageImage
Jun 4, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Except for the part about pronouns, in my experience right-wingers hide their real beliefs but rarely misrepresent them, I agree with this. Sure, it's easier for progressives to be open about their beliefs, but it is how it is and it won't change until people stop being cowards. People on the right constantly blame their circumstances for not speaking up, and again I'm not even saying they're wrong that it's harder for them, but doing the right thing is not supposed to be easy and most of them could speak up much more at a very limited cost.
May 15, 2023 • 36 tweets • 11 min read
White people are significantly more at risk of being victimized by black people than the other way around. This isn't because white people are the majority, it's because black people commit way more crimes and seem to have a preference for white victims 🧵 philippelemoine.com/p/interracial-… A controversy erupted last week after @EndWokeness posted this meme and @elonmusk reacted to it approvingly. According to this meme, black-on-white interracial crime is far more common than white-on-black crime, yet the media focus on the latter.
Mar 23, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I've said this before, but if you disagree with the prevailing view, you literally can't say a word on Ukraine without people interpreting you in the most uncharitable way possible and ascribing to you views that don't actually follow from what you said. 1/n The effect is that people who disagree with the prevailing view will tend not to express their views in public, because it results in a massive waste of time as you constantly have to explain why you didn't say or imply what people claim and people don't like to be demonized. 2/n
Mar 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I wish one side in the war, I honestly don’t care which one at this point, would do something extremely stupid this year that totally destroyed their army as a coherent structure and forced them to sue for peace so this insanity ends before it gets really stupid. I think it’s very unlikely but not totally impossible. It would happen if the Russians tried another multi-pronged offensive across the whole front like some funny people think they are going to do.
Mar 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Est-ce que quelqu'un sait où je peux trouver une version plus détaillée de cet argument du COR en réponse à ceux qui notent que, si le déficit du système de retraite n'est pas plus important, c'est uniquement parce que l'État cotise beaucoup plus que les employeurs privés ? Pour ceux que ça intéresse, je pense qu'il y a plus de détails dans ce rapport (partie 2, chapitre 2), mais si vous avez autre chose je suis toujours preneur. cor-retraites.fr/sites/default/…