Blame the Wealthy, Not the Left, for Seattle's Coming Decline thestranger.com/slog/2020/08/2…

A few years ago, Tyrone Beason at the SEATImes wrote a Sunday magazine piece asking if Seattle could hold onto its newfound wealth: the answer was obvious even then… 1/
Betteridge's Law was in full effect, of course. Seattle's wealth is its location, the indoor/outdoor lifestyle — the old climate and access to culture and activities, for those who can afford them. But it is selling that off, by allowing the land to be bid out of reach. 2/
Housing is already affordable: it's land that's expensive. Don't believe it? Look up a home here: blue.kingcounty.com/Assessor/eReal… and look at the assessed value of land vs improvements. Those $600k ramblers? A bargain at $300k, if you didn't have to buy — and finance — the land. 3/
Look up vacant land on Zillow or Redfin and think about how much a house will have to sell for to recoup that upfront investment — and how much cheaper if the land was rented (just pay the property tax). 4/
And to @mudede's point, what will be lost is the culture and community that people are willing to pay these prices to enjoy. Will Seattle become affordable after the Pandemic has run its course? Hard to see how, given how strongly people will defend their unearned wealth. 5/
One thing that seems not to be understood is how the rising to access land — the rent extracted by the owner — pushes up the price of everything else, including local wages. Employers end up paying more when their workers pay more…and that all goes to speculators. 6/
Tax land through a ground rent, lower the cost to acquire it, force land owners to pay back the local economy for the value of the land they are using, and make Seattle — and other overheated cities — livable for everyone. #LVT

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

7/F

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More from @paulbeard

19 Nov
This argument will never make any sense, that vast resources of the productive wealth — cities — are somehow going to be put under austerity budgets. In today's post-industrial/knowledge economy, land/location is the means of production… 1/
…the store of value that creates wealth and attracts investment of money and energy. We were told the Internet would make it possible to work anywhere, hollowing out the expensive cities. Anyone who has looked at Seattle or SF home prices know didn't pencil out. 2/
People want to be where the action is, to make connections, to build things, and no amount of high-quality video conferencing or fat bandwidth is going to replace that, not even in the Pandemic. So why would you starve the source of your wealth at a time like this? 3/
Read 10 tweets
18 Nov
Can't is right. I learned this from watching Netflix's The Crown when it started…the idea that a job/position has its own agenda, regardless of what the person holding it wants. Does anyone really think @BarackObama wanted to do all the things he had to do in his tenure? 1/
The USA became the world's leading oil producer during his time…did he want that *personally* or was it something the job of POTUS needed to see happen, for the economic strength of the country? A center-right country is not changing course for a temporary change of captains. 2/
The bumper sticker "if the people lead, the leaders will follow" is more accurate than many think: if we want real change it has to come from the bottom, from the voters, putting the right people in office, from city hall to the fed'l gov't. 3/
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
So how is a 4 million vote margin out of 147 million votes a #blowout? Ask @kingjames if a 75-71 score is a blowout in basketball? If we look at the electoral college, is 306-211 a blowout? Would a (rounded) 31-21 football score be a blowout? 1/
Or to round down further, would a 3-2 baseball score be anything remarkable? No. I get that 4 million is a lot but against 147 million? It's 3%. If you left a 3% tip you'd better run out the door. Would you be happy w a 3% raise? 2/
The bigger question is what did those 71 million voters want? Some thoughtful pieces in the weekend papers with @AOC and @tressiemcphd… I don't think many wanted more family separation or a continuation of the current COVID strategy. What we should ask is what they oppose. 3/
Read 13 tweets
17 Oct
Anyone among my followers who knows scams, specifically money laundering through craigslist (or something like that)? Someone offered to buy something I listed and sent what appears to be a stolen check for 10X the amount…obvs not cashing it.
Bkgd: I offered a bike for sale on CL for $200 and someone replied with a full price offer + $50 to hold it. Said he would send a cashiers check (I should have stopped there but people are weird: why not PayPal/venmo?). Got email from Fedex to expect a package from Florida (!).
Package arrives with a business check — not a cashiers check — for $2,250 from a business in central Michigan. Immediately a text comes in to say the pkg has arrived, followed by an email. Thing is, I sold the bike locally for full price, as I told the scammer I would.
Read 12 tweets
16 Oct
Rent control is one of those ideas, like "term limits," that tells you how much someone has thought about the problem. Not much, it turns out. I wrestled with rent control until I read Progress & Poverty and learned how land value, not shelter rent, is the driver.
1/

#LVT
We already have term limits: they're called "elections." And anyone who can win, in a fair and equally-funded race, can stay in office as long as their constituents say. But "fair and equally-funded" are where we need to put in some work. The power of incumbency is real. 2/
So with rent control. It looks like an easy fix…limit what landlords can charge for rent. Boom: done. But this completely misses the rising value of land, rising tax assessments, and how that means properties decline or become vacant, as the capped rent doesn't pencil out.
2/
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct
Thought experiment for the urbanists, housing advocates, etc.

If you could buy a house in NE Seattle (98115) for $216k with a $5,000 land rent, forgoing the value of the land or you could pay $500k for both, which would you choose?
If you buy the house and rent the land, you would pay $1,226.42/month vs $1,975.60/month…$750/month that you would spend on any number of other things. Sure, you get more mortgage interest to deduct but is it worth it?
I realize this may not get any traction at all, what with my 800 followers, but maybe some more connecter person can amplify it.
Read 4 tweets

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