My Authors
Read all threads
A short story about power production and Kenya Power's unending woes.

1/
In 2013, the Jubilee government set itself an ambitious target of growing the installed power capacity to 6,765MW in its first five-year term.

--a thread---

businessdailyafrica.com/news/Jubilee-g…
2/
In his critique of the power generation target written in September 2014, David Ndii stated thus:

"The long and short of it is that the belief that 5000MW will bring investors in droves is as fantastic as John Frum’s second coming."

nation.co.ke/oped/opinion/b…
3/
But in a rather entertaining rejoinder (which stated that Nairobi produced 60% of Kenya's GDP), Bitange Ndemo argued that if South Africa had 52,000MW of installed power, then Kenya could certainly do with 5,000MW more.

businessdailyafrica.com/analysis/Where…
4/
In setting the 5,000MW target, the argument then was that Kenya was going to grow industries, have an electric train on the standard gauge railway line, build resort cities and establish several special economic zones with huge demand for power.

nation.co.ke/kenya/business…
5/
Then KP sunk Sh200bn into its grid: growing customers from 2.3mn to 7.5mn, installing 20,000km of power lines and doubling the number of substations.

Much of this was via a $150mn AfDB-funded last mile connectivity project that cost KP Sh123.2bn

businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/comp…
6/
Things did not go as expected.

The latest survey by KNBS shows that revenues from rural electrification continue to decline even as households connected rose.

In 2018/19, KP connected 77,047 more customers in rural areas but collected Sh1.07bn less.

businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/comp…
7/
Increasing technical losses due to underutilised infrastructure is now set to cost consumers some Sh6 billion every year as the government adjusted recoverable losses from 14.9 percent to 15.9 percent.

businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Househ…
8/
By last month, Kenya had an installed capacity of 2,791.2MW and an effective generation capacity of 2,712.9MW, well short of the envisioned 6,765MW (1,765MW in 2013 + 5,000MW)
9/
Still, we have a major problem.

In the year to June 2020 alone, data shows that Kenya Power bought 11,462 gigawatt-hours (GWh) and managed to sell just 8,773GWh and the excess power was still paid for either way.
10/
“For every MW generated from a plant, you need 20 times in demand but Kenya missed that.

It’s like hiring an expensive car which you are required to pay for daily and then failing to travel or making short trips around the town. You will still pay the renting fees anyway.
11/
By 2026, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority, says demand supply gap is expected to rise from a deficit of 104MW in 2019 to 923MW, against the slow growth in peak demand from the current 1,926MW in 2019 to 2,766.
12/
The government plan to generate over 5000MW in four years also pushed Kenya Power into short-term debt to finance its infrastructure expansion to be ready to distribute what is generated.

The firm’s debt has hit Sh102,600,000,000 with annual obligations of Sh2,4,00,000,000
13/
Kenya Power can hardly pay for the electricity supplied to it by the generators including the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) which it now owes some Sh23,700,000,000 (some of which continues to accrue interest).

nation.co.ke/kenya/business…
14/
Yet the government continues to push for additional power production

The 2000MW Lamu coal power plant was also recently frozen in court after the government pushed forward with the plan despite environmental concerns.

businessdailyafrica.com/news/Queries-a…
15/
As if that's not enough, plans are underway to build a Sh540,000,000,000 nuclear power plant with an initial capacity of 1,000 megawatts in Tana River over the next seven years.

businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Kenya-…
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Sura Mbaya

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!