Ron Butler Profile picture
Aug 26, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Economic Recovery based on Parking Space Count

I guess we all use our own internal measures of life's return to normal

I use a couple:

Traffic on the Gardiner and the 427 on my way to work (we were always an exempt industry, day one)

2/
And I would say we are back to about 65% of Summer normal versus Zombie Apocalypse level in April

And I use office parking lot numbers in my corner of Toronto at Eglinton and Renforth

This is nowhere near 50% of normal

Some lots are big regional offices of TD and Bell

3/
And those are super empty, likely all still working from home because elevators

The rest which are a mix of 6 story offices and ground level entrances mainly small businesses

Pretty empty still, buildings without elevators below 50% full and they were all packed Pre-Covid

4/
What I don't know is:

Working from home?

Small business collapsed?

And it may be months before that can be determined

If WFH then more credence to a permanent shift because ground floor offices should be a safe return

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Apr 19
Just How Bad Will The Lack Of New Low Rise Homes Be In 2 Years? REALLY BAD

The math is inescapable: New Construction Starts of all homes to buy (Rental Projects are happening) flat-linned in Ontario & BC but Low Rise had already dropped to less than 25% of new builds

2/
For the last few years the building of Low Rise has fallen off for a number of reasons: land costs is extremely high, uncertainty of final materials costs, a huge chunk of final price was Development Fees & Taxes & likely the most important reason: Hi-Rise was more profitable

3/
Capital goes where the profits are & Hi-Rise was the money maker

Sure, you see some low-rise projects finishing but you won't see many starting and those that are starting are often very far away from Urban Cores, several hours drive in some cases

One big key to this stuff

4/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 16
How Bad Is It In New Home Starts In BC & Ontario: Really Bad

To be clear: Homes to BUY

We are experiencing a boom in Purpose Built Rentals like we haven't seen for 35 years

Government has made many moves on tax relief & aggressive financing that makes Rentals attractive

2/
And there is nothing wrong with building rental units: it's smart & important

Much of Ontario & BC's rental stock is old & tired all of these new units are needed & welcome

And rental rates are way too high, the only solution is much more supply

How about homes to buy?

3/
2024 will likely be a 10 to 15 year low in New Home Starts to buy

If you see cranes in the air or new houses being finished remember those are NOT starts those are completions

And VERY important: in Vancouver & the GTA 75% to 80% of new builds are high rise not low rise

4/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 7
Everyone In Canada Should Watch This Video: Why Virtually Every Grant From All Levels Of Government To Business Is A Scam Or In This Case Graft

Your Tax Dollars

The Video is an incredibly damning indictment of Graft, Corruption & by all appearances a BC Government cover up

2/
I believe every word that Chace is saying, it all rings true particularly since the company I work for has & observed similar things in mortgages

The totally rigged & endless waste of money that is the government grants business

Particularly in all things Tech

3/
Let me give you examples: Multiple Mortgage Companies have been given $Millions$ in Government grants to develop Digital Mortgage Applications in the name of Innovation & Development

Except so few of these apps are sold or licensed to any other companies

WHAT! Why?

4/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
One True Thing: Young Canadians Want To Own Their Own Homes

Not as an investment
Not to flip
Not as a source of leverage

Just to live in & raise a family

And if they see that idea as hopeless they will be pissed off & no one should wonder why they're mad

Let's be clear

2/
Young people understand that 25 years ago in most Big Cities in Canada average houses cost between 2.5X & 3.5X average income & most couples could buy one

They also understand that in many cities in Canada that's now 4.5X to 10X average family income

Massively harder to do

3/
We can go around & around about why this has happened but ultimately that doesn't help the young people who rightly feel they have been put at a severe disadvantage compared to previous generations

Because they are observablely correct

It's very important to get this idea

4/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
This Video Is Ridiculously FALSE

I Believe The Housing Minister is an intelligent, well intentioned person

Virtually every word is false with the possible exception of "and" & "the"

The falsehoods:

1) Millions of Renters want to buy homes..... except they're unaffordable

2/
Nothing about tracking Rental Payments will reduce houses prices to the point average Renters can produce enough down payment or pass the Stress Test

2) OSFI the Government's own Bank Regulator insists Borrowers have provable acceptable Credit History how could anyone

3/
With a history of NOT PAYING BILLS have those non-payment offset by paying rent on time? This is nuts

3) Less than 8% of all applicants for a First Time Mortgage are turned down based on Credit Score 92% are APPROVED or rejected because they could not afford the payments

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 26
Is The Golden Era Of Real Estate Rental Investment Finally Hitting A Wall?

There are signs & portents, some immediate some long-term

Since 2004 the success of Investors buying Rentals was pretty much a SURE THING

RE Values went straight up, vacancies were very low

2/
Rental rates went up, Mortgage Rates were ridiculously low & mortgage credit plentiful

Even Covid which should have been an unmanageable disaster for Landlords was short-lived & Government provided a ton of support

After Covid Property Values & Rents soared

Perfect really

3/
Government even provided the biggest increase in population in decades with massive increases in New Immigrants

But has the tide finally turned?

Let's look:

- Government announces drastic cuts in International Students & Temp Workers almost all of them Renters

4/
Read 6 tweets

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