Ron Butler Profile picture
Aug 26, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Economic Recovery based on Parking Space Count

I guess we all use our own internal measures of life's return to normal

I use a couple:

Traffic on the Gardiner and the 427 on my way to work (we were always an exempt industry, day one)

2/
And I would say we are back to about 65% of Summer normal versus Zombie Apocalypse level in April

And I use office parking lot numbers in my corner of Toronto at Eglinton and Renforth

This is nowhere near 50% of normal

Some lots are big regional offices of TD and Bell

3/
And those are super empty, likely all still working from home because elevators

The rest which are a mix of 6 story offices and ground level entrances mainly small businesses

Pretty empty still, buildings without elevators below 50% full and they were all packed Pre-Covid

4/
What I don't know is:

Working from home?

Small business collapsed?

And it may be months before that can be determined

If WFH then more credence to a permanent shift because ground floor offices should be a safe return

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Jul 7
Is It Getting To Be A Good Time To Buy A House? Because We Are Starting To Hear That Alot

RBC published a study suggesting the best Housing "affordability" in 3 years

Real Estate analysts point out Homes in expensive markets are down in price

And it's true, prices are down

2/
But in some regions prices are down from a peak price moment that was the highest in the history of Canada

Some house prices went up 30% in 2021

Are prices down from Peak Crazy: Yes

The bizarre nexus of 1.69% Mortgage Rates & Batshit Crazy FOMO

Yeah, down from there

3/
And mortgage rates which soared from 1.69% to 6.79% - 7.09% in 2022 - 2023 are down to the low 4% range

House prices & mortgage rates down from totally insane levels

That's technically more affordable than apex house prices at 7% mortgage rates

Will home sales take off?

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 3
Microsoft Terminates Another 10K Employees Will AI Decimate White Collar Jobs?

Yeah, it will

Why does a MortgageGuy keep posting about this?

Because Unemployment is the by far the biggest influence on Mortgage Default

And Canada has EXTRA trouble on this issue

2/
Because unlike the USA who is on a mission to restore Blue Collar Manufacturing Jobs through Trump's Tariff program Canada is watching Manufacturing Jobs dissappear

If the USA is determined to destroy Canada's Manufacturing capacity & AI is set to gut White Collar Jobs

3/
Where the hell does that leave Canada?

Hey, I know what the Government line is: We are here to protect Canadian Workers

And Blah, Blah, Blah

Government's idea of protection is beefing up Unemployment Financial Support

Which is fine but Short Term

Let's think about it

4/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 2
Bank Blanket Appraisal On New Construction Condo Says It's Worth The 2020 Purchase Price: Every Other Appraisal Says Its Worth 25% To 30% LESS

WTF is going on here?

Let me explain how this stuff works

Hi-Rise Condos take 4 to 6 years to build

Today that's a problem

2/
Because in 2020 some people bought Dog Crate Condos at insane prices, also in 2021 & part of 2022

550 sqft Condos for around $1M, it was a crazy price even back then but now thousands of those sized units are being offered for at $675K - $700K

But it's a firm contract

3/
The 2020 Buyers who gave 20% deposits may want to back out & run but they know they will be sued by the Developers

When they look for a mortgage the have to have an appraisal done & 99% of the time the Independent Appraiser says the $1M purchase price is only worth $700K

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
AI Will Destroy Jobs: It's Coming Faster Than I Thought

As an old guy I am wrong person to comment on AI but I just encountered it in Mortgage Brokerage role that knocked me over

In the mortgage business we talk to people

Pure Digital Mortgages are just 4% of originations

2/
Only Licensed Mortgage Brokers can discuss rates, terms & mortgage products with the public but others can schedule calls, request documents, & deal with service calls

For the last year our company has been shown AI models to address these functions

They were OK but clumsy

3/
But this week BOOM: an AI Voice Assistant that's BETTER than people

- Perfect speaking voice
- Answers any question
- No lag on responding
- Gets a joke
- Funny when it should be
- Sounds confident & upbeat

I was blown away, its such a massive leap forward over the past

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 16
Single Family Real Estate: Heartbreak & Losses Or Will It Snap Back Quickly?

In Ontario & BC we understand the Condo Crash but what's happening with Detached, Semi's & Towns?

In some regions very bad news but what's the final outcome?

Let's be clear: other places are fine

2/
Quebec Real Estate good: sales up prices up, Alberta steady, some slight cracks on pricing emerging but nothing serious

Atlantic fine, Saskatchewan busy, Manitoba fine

But Ontario & BC: Ultra-Slow Sales volume & prices starting to sag

Old sins are coming to the surface

3/
The regions where home prices took a 25%, 30% or 40% price surge in 2021 & 2022 are clearly feeling the pressure today

The Fraser Valley in BC, the distant 905 at far reaches of the GTA, small cities in Ontario, Cottage Country

All of these increases were just nuts

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 10
First Time Home Buyers Getting Older & Guess What: Need Parents Help!

CMHC Reports confirm something we knew: in BC & Ontario, even older, higher income FTHBs often need Parental Help

The Feudal System is COMING BACK

The Medieval System of land rich families is reborn

2/
People talk about Boomer wealth transfer, it's happening before our eyes, even Gen X parents helping their kids with Down Payment Gifts

Or in a more dangerous move: Co-signers on Mortgages

Does Canada want to return to this Feudal System?

Doesn't matter, it's happening

3/
Some might say: No Big Deal Ron, parents should be able to help there kids buy a house

Okay, but consider this:

- 30 years ago gifts were a rare occurrence with no big money involved

- 30 years ago saving 5% down payment & qualifying for a mortgage was very achievable

4/
Read 6 tweets

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