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Steve Kornacki Profile picture
@SteveKornacki
Aug 26, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
This would be, if it stands, the first Kennedy loss in a Massachusetts Democratic primary
Here is the history (Technically RFK finished 2nd in the '68 primary, but he wasn't on the ballot and had encouraged his supporters to vote for McCarthy): Image
The closest to a Kennedy loss in this time was probably the '98 Gov race, which then-Rep. Joe Kennedy II was preparing to run in. But polls were very bad for him in '97 (there was a scandal at the time involving his brother Michael) and he opted not to run.
When Joe Kennedy II ran for the House to replace Tip O'Neill in 1986, there was talk before the primary that he was in danger of losing to a liberal state legislator, George Bachrach (who had managed the winning 1976 House campaign of Ed Markey). But Kennedy won easily. Image

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More from @SteveKornacki

Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Jan 23
Happy NH primary day!

Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown:
1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
1988: The classic NBC music returns as VP George H.W. Bush, 8 days after his shocking 3rd place Iowa finish, bounces back to handily defeat Bob Dole and reclaim his front-runner's perch while neighboring state Gov. Michael Dukakis easily wins the Democratic primary:
Read 10 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Jan 14
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
 
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Dec 11, 2023
New NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP caucus poll:

Trump 51% (+8 since October)
DeSantis 19% (+3)
Haley 16% (—)
Ramaswamy 5% (+1)
Christie 4% (—)
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:

Trump 63%
DeSantis 12%
Haley 11%
Ramaswamy 5%
Christie 2%
And there continues to be a significant enthusiasm gap between Trump and the others:

Supporters who say minds are made up:
Trump 70%
Haley 34%
DeSantis 30%

Supporters who say they are "extremely enthusiastic" about choice:
Trump 45%
Haley 21%
DeSantis 16%
Read 5 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Nov 19, 2023
New NBC News national poll (11/10-14)

General Election:
Trump 46%
Biden 44%

Biden Job Performance
Approve 40% (⬇️1% from Sept.)
Disapprove 57% (⬆️ 1%)

Biden Handling of Foreign Policy
Approve 33% (⬇️ 8% from Sept.)
Disapprove 62%(⬆️ 9%)
‘24 GOP nomination

Trump 58%
DeSantis 18%
Haley 13%
Ramaswamy 3%
Christie 3%
Hutchinson 1%
Burgum 1%
Of note:
*Massive generational divide on Israel/Hamas war; among 65+, 53% approve of Biden’s handling, 41% disapprove . Among 18-34, 20% approve & 70% disapprove
* Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds, a big shift from 2020 but roughly in line w/ other recent polls
Read 6 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Nov 16, 2023
The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.

The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2416…
Meaning: she (+ Christie) is doing much better w/ independent/non-GOP voters (who play an unusually big role in NH) than with R's:

Self-ID'd R voters:
Trump 55%
Haley 18%
DeSantis 12%
Christie 6%

Independents/Dems
Christie 37%
Haley 28%
Ramaswamy 18%
Trump 7%
DeSantis 5%
In 2000, when McCain blew out W in NH, he won indies 3-1. It turned GOP race into a Bush/McCain battle, but what did McCain in was that W used McCain's indie/Dem support against him, saying that the race was between a real Republican and one propped up by "mischievous" non-R's
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems:
newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu…
In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.
And obviously a similar story in VA -- after a great '21, with Glenn Youngkin winning the governorship and his party flipping 7 House of Delegates seats to gain control of the chamber, Dems re-took the House while R's failed to flip the Senate.
Read 6 tweets

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