Here is the history (Technically RFK finished 2nd in the '68 primary, but he wasn't on the ballot and had encouraged his supporters to vote for McCarthy):
The closest to a Kennedy loss in this time was probably the '98 Gov race, which then-Rep. Joe Kennedy II was preparing to run in. But polls were very bad for him in '97 (there was a scandal at the time involving his brother Michael) and he opted not to run.
When Joe Kennedy II ran for the House to replace Tip O'Neill in 1986, there was talk before the primary that he was in danger of losing to a liberal state legislator, George Bachrach (who had managed the winning 1976 House campaign of Ed Markey). But Kennedy won easily.
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Harris 54%
Trump 40%
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For comparison, merged data from our pre-election polling of Latino voters in the 3 previous races:
2020: Biden +36
2016: Clinton +50
2012: Obama +39
There'd be no real parallel for Biden exiting at this point. He's the presumptive WH nominee (meaning: won needed delegates in primaries) and no one in that position has withdrawn in the modern era. For that matter, no major party WH nominee has ever dropped out.
Comparisons would be made to LBJ in '68, but he never formally entered the race; just announced that he wouldn't run after an LBJ write-in effort only beat Eugene McCarthy by 9 points in NH. And he did that before the remaining primaries (there weren't a ton back then) and 5 months before the convention.
A VP nominee, Tom Eagleton, was replaced in 1972 by Sargent Shriver just weeks after the Democratic convention. But WH nominee George McGovern was already hopelessly behind Richard Nixon.
Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown:
1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
1988: The classic NBC music returns as VP George H.W. Bush, 8 days after his shocking 3rd place Iowa finish, bounces back to handily defeat Bob Dole and reclaim his front-runner's perch while neighboring state Gov. Michael Dukakis easily wins the Democratic primary:
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks: