Thread by @SushantSin

With little hopes of any breakthrough in the next round of military talks and rivers and nalas in spate now, Army preparing for all contingencies in Ladakh, including any possible Chinese military move as waters subside in the month of October. My report: indianexpress.com/article/india/…

"The rivers and nalas are currently in full spate in eastern Ladakh, and with the tracks located in the valleys, they become unusable and inaccessible. That rules out any military action. But as the water subsides, October is a campaigning season in the area..."

The 1962 border war between India and China was fought in the months of October and November. It spanned the areas in Ladakh which are currently the friction points between the two armies for the last 115 days.

“This is surely the most serious situation after 1962. In fact, after 45 years, we have had military casualties on this border. The quantum of forces currently deployed by both sides at the LAC is also unprecedented.” This is what EAM said in an interview two days ago.

Besides the number of Chinese troops on the LAC, it is “the logistics support and infrastructure that is being built, which is a bigger indicator. Tracks, shelters, bunkers and communication networks have been put up by the PLA in the past few months”. #LAC #Ladakh

What does the Army mean by "being prepared" on the LAC? “Our deployment is very strong, and we are fully prepared. Being prepared means enough troops and armour, equipment and quantities of ammunition are in place now. The logistics is all tied up, including the supply chains.”

“The Chinese line in the last many talks has been about ‘mutual and equal’ disengagement which means both sides step back by an equal distance. That has been rejected by us for many reasons: one, it is the Chinese who have ingressed and this reinforces the new status quo..."

"..two, this means we step back from our longstanding posts in the areas which is impractical; three, their terrain & better infrastructure means equal time of movement of troops instead of equal distance should be considered; and four, PLA wants exceptions even in disengagement"

Despite agreeing to a disengagement plan in PP17A in Gogra, Chinese troops continue to occupy a height which allows them to dominate the area on the Indian side. Similarly, Chinese troops have refused to step back from the Finger-4 ridgeline on the north bank of Pangong Tso.

In the strategic Depsang Plains, the tensions have led to the breakdown of the local arrangement which allowed Indian patrols to access patrolling points. Chinese troops have blocked Indian soldiers at a place 18 km inside the LAC, denying them access to five patrolling points.

To understand the Chinese stance, do not go beyond what the PLA said in its monthly briefing yesterday. Even if you are willing to ignore what the Chinese Ambassador to India has repeatedly stated in public. hindustantimes.com/india-news/loo…

Compare this to the statement coming from the MEA, ruling out any bold action. We can't seem to be even conjuring up strong words naming Chinese ingress, continuing with the removal of official document from the MoD website and silence otherwise.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1299021511760596992

Do watch Shyam Saran on the Chinese intrusions, Indian response and the military and non-military options available to India. He knows more about these things than most other people. thewire.in/security/watch…

[N/N] Bottomline: As talks are stuck in a limbo, India has little bargaining chips to get the Chinese to vacate territory in Ladakh. PLA is reinforcing the new status quo it has created. Army is holding the new line & preparing for all eventualities. Don't be lulled by the lull.