This has been the case for some time & why I think focusing June high level conference on purely process issues was a mistake. But I fear the idea UK political level detached from negotiations may be wishful thinking...1/
Yes PM may be distracted & have a lot on his plate. But I wouldn't expect there to be huge gaps between what he & Frost think. Yes he can inject some more impetus & give some flexibility but on the detail he will likely listen closely to Frost's advice. 2/
It may be a case of hoping for a similar intervention from the PM as last year with the NI Protocol. But that was very different in terms of the political situation & the concessions were a direction he was more comfortable with (a harder Brexit essentially). 3/
This also doesn't fall solely on the UK. The EU leaders need to give Barnier more flexibility or there won't be a deal. This doesn't require a full mandate change just a signal that he can explore options. The crux is where the real floor on Level Playing Field is for the EU. 4/
In terms of what UK does need to do, there are lots of calls for details of its state aid regime. It does need to show something in this space but it may be possible to avoid setting it out fully. The key point is, would it accept an independent agency overseeing state aid? 5/
This could be the CMA or something else. But accepting an agency will oversee state aid could allow this agency to be enshrined in a UK/EU treaty. The discussion would then be about what powers this agency has & what its objectives are. This is much narrower debate to have. 6/
There are precedents for this in parts of the WA (agency overseeing citizens rights in UK) & in the old version of the NI protocol. While it goes further than UK may ideally like, it avoids any ECJ role in UK & indeed any role for a foreign body in state aid decisions. 7/
Unless there is a move such as this, the chance of no agreement is rising. I do think behind the big issues both sides have a lot of legal text which can be reconciled quickly, so a deal is still doable. But we need to see some moves from both sides in September. 8/ ENDS
