This is very useful — and note that the risks in the US are 10x those in the UK ft.com/content/176b9b…
So, by these calculations, in the typical state, the typical American has a 1 in 100,000 chance of a bad outcome from covid.
Of course the very wide regional difference of infection makes it hard to generalize.
And note that the author doesn’t see the even lower 1 in 1m risk in the UK as a reason for complacency. He’s worried about the fall.
Also a good point from a follower: These are daily risks. Obviously they add up over time; the risk of a bad covid outcome over the next year is well over 1 in 100,000
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Because a lot of people on here are D partisans they and everyone they talk to think Ds are hopeless, inept and not as good as Rs. Actually a functional party has one purpose — winning elections — and Ds do it well. The GOP’s recent track record is the one that raises questions.
(Especially after last night. Lost the WH and Senate in 2020, underwhelming midterm in 2022, very atypical situation)
“Counting the ballots should be driven by security, not speed,” Wisconsin state Rep. Janel Brandtjen, an R, said earlier this year as lawmakers were considering legislation on the issue. “Why would we want to give bad actors the chance to see ballots prior to Election Day?”
Anyway, squint and you can see a path to victory for O'Dea in this poll (Bennet's only at 48%) but with ballots about to drop it is a pretty tight one. Consistent w the theme of what public polling there's been so far.
This guy says it more succinctly than me, maybe turn to him for your analysis
Now the VRA is not (just) about partisan advantage, there's a lot more at stake here than do Ds or Rs get to wring a few more safe seats out of the map. But important to remember that things rarely cut cleanly in US politics.
This is a pretty big deal because Latinos were already splitting in ways that mirrored Anglo voting trends (gender divide/evangelical/military service were prime determinants of voting R). The educational divide would further cement the parallels.
Glass half full for Ds is that Latinos start from a more Democratic baseline than Anglos; Biden still won non-college 55-41.
Glass half empty for Ds is there are a lot more non-college Latinos than college, so further to fall. there. (Of course ed attainment is ⬆️)