Most demographic models point to reduced religion as cause of reduced fertility, but this is wrong. Image
A more accurate view would be that reduced superstition and increased reason reduces fertility. But this is also wrong as it assumes secular societies have no art of spiritual component.
A more accurate view is that the decoupling of aesthetics and knowledge leads to reduction in fertility. Image
A better image Image

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More from @daveg

12 Apr
China's digital currency, what does it mean?

1. Coins & notes can be replaced by digital and govt now has a way to funnel cash directly to citizens, UBI style.
2. Bitcoin is not challenged much by this. It is digital gold and truly decentralized.
3. Yes it is a step away from dollar hegemony because...
Read 10 tweets
7 Apr
The end of growth .
1. The growth in number of Internet users has halted.
2. Our attention is saturated.
3. Toxicity on social media creates reverse network effects.
Read 17 tweets
7 Apr
Coinbase is like Netscape. It's a well designed UI on top of a new network (Bitcoin/web) created using a new protocol (Bitcoin spec/HTTP). It's worth more than Netscape because it holds currency but maybe it should be valued based on financial services, not tech stock growth.
Like Netscape and unlike, say, Facebook, it doesn't own its own protocol. It's not a platform in the traditional sense.
Now you could argue that Coinbase is like Google which sits directly on the web and therefore doesn't own its own protocol, but Google monetizes its traffic not its deposits or their transactions.
Read 6 tweets
30 Sep 20
Presidential debates don't matter. They are obsolete, game-show era media invented in their current format for TV, which isn't really a thing anymore.
Attachment to them is cultural in the US. European countries like France and the UK have only recently started copying them, ironically just as the world is about to move on.
There were other ways of doing this before. In the US, in the Lincoln era, debates were face to face with no moderator (game shows hadn't been invented). In the UK they were out in the streets on soap boxes.
Read 8 tweets
27 Sep 20
Elon Musk is doing something even more interesting design wise, than Jobs did. Jobs imported decades old German modernist product design, which, unlike architecture, never really made it to the US, and applied Bauhaus modernism to software design. Musk is postmodern...
...in the best way. He's using retro cultural influences, Flash Gordon era rockets and Stealth Fighter like, origami style, car design from 70s Lotus, to deliberately invert the current norm and show that you can be playful with products that are much more ambitious than Apple's.
You can tell at a glance that this is real design in the sense of a human being making creative choices, rather than abrogation through focus groups under the euphemism of 'human centric design' (which is really the opposite).
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep 20
Why the whole environmental narrative of reducing energy consumption is false. Zero consumption and the temperature rises for 40 years, then levels off, the ice melts, we die, the planet survives. theconversation.com/what-would-hap…
So we need to geoengineer (sadly) which requires progress, which has always correlated with increased energy consumption (probably has to, due to laws of physics), so we need to massively onboard renewables, so this energy consumption doesn't make things worse.
But bringing on renewables will take time so we probably need to ramp up nuclear as a stopgap. And we possibly need to turn the flywheel of battery use and electric car demands on the grid to bootstrap a different economic and structural model for the electricity grid.
Read 6 tweets

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