Everyone who has tried vibe coding knows that you can get 99% of the way there then hit a 'whac-a-mole' wall of introducing three new bugs for every one fixed. At which point manual coding is easier. Here is a work around. 1. Use reasoning models like o3 to create better one shot prompts to start with.

This is the simplest diagram I could do to explain what is happening in the world and why China has already won. Before this, there was the mantra that 'software is eating the world'. It was true and the US beat Europe which failed to enter the digital era and build any dominant internet platforms. This was the best diagram that explained this.

Ok, now I understand what's going through Vance's mind. It's nuts, but this is what's happening:
Their view is that Europe is 'pathetic' and that US is sick of picking up tab for Pax Americana in Europe.

https://twitter.com/daveg/status/1905727084133277826

In Ukraine they flouted the idea of mineral rights to subsidise support and get a sort of instant belt and road style access to rare earths etc. for repatriated manufacturing in the US, via tariff threats.

AI creates network effects in production (software application production costs go to zero, running costs increase) - ultimately this means, infrastructure and energy, and we will need more.

https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1904980782063505465

But just like the telco/dotcom bust masked continued secular growth in the internet, there could be a dotcom style implosion of AI infrastructure (and this could be the first tremor).

What is wrong with our world, in one tweet.
1. The structural change that created the Reformation (bypassing churches control of books) was replacing one (scribe/priest) to many (congregation) with more (mass duplicated printed book) to many (congregation). 2. The structural changes of the internet are larger:
few (publishers, TV channels, newspapers) to many (nations) replaced with many (everyone has a channel on the internet) to many (everyone, regardless of borders).

As if it wasn’t clear already VW illustrates the giant, ticking time-bomb at the heart of Europe’s economic model.

The European economy is based on two things, industrial production and selling the past. Selling the past includes tourism, where nice places have a history and the story increases the margins. Selling the past also includes things like fashion, perfume and luxury goods where the brand associations with history, also increases margins.

Fintech is a niche internet sector that everyone thought would be huge, but outside of China it has resulted in very few platform companies like Revolut. Here’s why.

1. It’s a massive market sector that had everyone drooling but regulation means it’s not a level playing field for startups. 2. Outside of the period of ultra low interest rates it’s ultimately about balance sheet size, which is hard for startups.

Why France could implode.
This is Germany - the feedback loop of incentives to work to create wealth where a portion pays for a welfare state (a good thing) doesn't work anymore and it's getting worse, with this specific example. But now, let's compare it with France. France is a lot worse, the state is 60% of the economy vs Germany's 45% and it hasn't made a profit in half a century, so its debt is increasing.

My macro view:
Agrarian to Industrial to Digital era.
(Information economy is as big a transition as Industrial Revolution) The introduction of the printing press rewired communication from one to a few to a few to many.
It triggered the Reformation and 200 years of war and eventually led to the US model of popular culture. The masses (via broadcast channels) had more purchasing power than the elite and movies made more money than opera.

The internet rewired communication from a few to many to many to many. This is an even bigger structural change than the printing press delivered.
Everyone has a broadcast channel and people that care about a fringe issue will spend 24/7 promoting it, where moderates won’t.
Fringe issues and conspiracy dominate because there are an infinite number of lies but finite number of truths, so there are more compelling lies than compelling truths and lies win.
Eventually this stabilises when the network settles into a small world topology where people that link tribes gate-keep the lies from spreading.
But for now, we are not just in the 1930s, we are in Reformation 2.

Wake up Europe, the digital age is bypassing you. You have no Google , Amazon, Meta, Apple. You arrogantly called SpaceX a fanciful dream and it wiped out the European Space Agency. You have no Nvidia and your response to AI has been to regulate before you have anything domestic to regulate. Your car industry is about to be wiped out by the Chinese. Your biggest economy shut down nuclear out of spite and with fraud. Your capital markets have no liquidity and your startups are drowning in bureaucracy. Your border is being attacked by Russia and your defence spending will have to triple just to be where it was with US subsidy given that part of the former Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc is now part of the EU. Your economy has slumped from the world’s largest to way behind the US. Your pensions are paid by three times less people and cost five times as much as people live longer. Your infrastructure is a model for the world but is configured for rail over self drive. Your electricity grid needs half a trillion of investment to cope with planned capacity and replacements, for the switch to renewables, within a decade. There are bright spots such as pharma and your healthcare system is a model for what civilisation looks like it. But to afford it, you need to completely transform from the industrial to digital age, to reform your institutions and rout the sclerotic bureaucratic system. I did this interview for the Guardian nearly a decade ago, shouting at clouds about the same thing. Since then, I’d argue, things have gotten worse. It needs a massive, multinational initiative to correct, urgently. theguardian.com/technology/201…

Here is a recipe for how to build a place like this. Importantly, it has to be a recipe, not a design.

Establish a simple hierarchy like the human body: a head (here, the cathedral), and the rest. At building level either consciously use symmetry or consciously break it.

https://twitter.com/Cobylefko/status/1594013018261692417

Have squarish spaces between buildings for people to interact. Put trees in them where possible.

Fantastic thread. Why movies are full of recycling franchises like Marvel while innovation in indie fringes doesn't percolate up. I suspect reason for this is the following:

https://twitter.com/mattsclancy/status/1521691555064651776

Mainstream is hyperconnected, over-dense network (groupthink, ossified) and is potentially disrupted only when overall network becomes a small world one (goldilocks area between connected and Balkanized) and stuff that appears in the creative niches can bubble up to mainstream.

1. Crypto is a technical solution to pure Internet infrastructure, it can’t prevent laws against it. Financial services consist of a technical and regulatory component. 2. The adoption of Internet based currency tokens by central banks uses a crypto based technical solution to replace banking rails with the Internet. It doesn’t use the crypto aspect for regulation so is not decentralised.

China's digital currency, what does it mean?

1. Coins & notes can be replaced by digital and govt now has a way to funnel cash directly to citizens, UBI style. 2. Bitcoin is not challenged much by this. It is digital gold and truly decentralized.

The end of growth .
1. The growth in number of Internet users has halted. 2. Our attention is saturated.

Coinbase is like Netscape. It's a well designed UI on top of a new network (Bitcoin/web) created using a new protocol (Bitcoin spec/HTTP). It's worth more than Netscape because it holds currency but maybe it should be valued based on financial services, not tech stock growth.

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1379564928684716034

Like Netscape and unlike, say, Facebook, it doesn't own its own protocol. It's not a platform in the traditional sense.

Presidential debates don't matter. They are obsolete, game-show era media invented in their current format for TV, which isn't really a thing anymore. Attachment to them is cultural in the US. European countries like France and the UK have only recently started copying them, ironically just as the world is about to move on.

Elon Musk is doing something even more interesting design wise, than Jobs did. Jobs imported decades old German modernist product design, which, unlike architecture, never really made it to the US, and applied Bauhaus modernism to software design. Musk is postmodern...

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1309909732954533889

...in the best way. He's using retro cultural influences, Flash Gordon era rockets and Stealth Fighter like, origami style, car design from 70s Lotus, to deliberately invert the current norm and show that you can be playful with products that are much more ambitious than Apple's.

Why the whole environmental narrative of reducing energy consumption is false. Zero consumption and the temperature rises for 40 years, then levels off, the ice melts, we die, the planet survives. theconversation.com/what-would-hap… So we need to geoengineer (sadly) which requires progress, which has always correlated with increased energy consumption (probably has to, due to laws of physics), so we need to massively onboard renewables, so this energy consumption doesn't make things worse.

The whole spidersweb of bureaucracy and legalese, from form filling to GDPR whack-a-mole to impenetrable language and unread, ass covering bits of paper or disclaimers, from website signups to medication packaging, product instructions, taxes and applications...

https://twitter.com/johanjessen/status/1303061355511992320

Is designed for a pre computer, industrial era of paperwork and structured data interpreted and pored over by gatekeepers ordinary people don't have access to. It is obsolete, inhuman impenetrable and intimidating for the most vulnerable or underrepresented in society.

Most demographic models point to reduced religion as cause of reduced fertility, but this is wrong. A more accurate view would be that reduced superstition and increased reason reduces fertility. But this is also wrong as it assumes secular societies have no art of spiritual component.